10/25/13…why do we just sit there and take it? Lose it?

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “When a fellow says, “It ain’t the money but the principle of the thing” it’s the money.” – Elbert Hubbard – a distant relative

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The reward for a thing well done is to have done it.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Capital Goods Orders in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall as Company Spending Weakens

*Biggest Sovereign Wealth Fund to Shun Stocks on Concern Reversal Possible – !!!

*Nasdaq Futures Climb as Microsoft Gains;; Metals Fall on China Money Rates – ???

*Twitter IPO at 27% Discount to Facebook Makes Stock Economical as Tweets

*Procter & Gamble Profit Rises 7.6% as Sales of Home-Care Products Increase

*U.K. Economic Expansion Accelerates to Three-Year High on Services Growth

*DuPont to Spin Off Performance Chemicals Subsidiary as Peltz Adds Pressure

*Dish Network’s Airwaves Gamble Needs U.S. Help to Become $5 Billion Payoff

*EU to Seek Spy-Service Accord With U.S. After Merkel Phone-Hacking Charges

*Republicans Shift Anti-Obamacare Tactics From Defunding to Probing Website

*Nigerian Miltiant Group Claims Contact With Kidnappers of Two Americans

*Gender Inequality Narrowed in 2013 While Middle East Held Out, WEF Finds    

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Stocks staged a modest rally, again led by Dow Transports +0.9% with the Russell 2000 small cap +0.7%l S&P 500 was the worst performer +0.3% – ex-Dow Utilities which lost 0.1%.

Total NYSE Volume was steady at 3.63B shares vs 3.64B. REAL NYSE Volume rosel slightly and remains at an above average 716M shares vs 709M shares vs 753M – a far cry from Friday’s 892M shares – highest since 9/28’s 2.06B share day on quarterend with that big Dow member change.

The Nasdaq 100 gained back a little more than half of Wednesday’s 22 points loss climbing 16 points, or 0.5%. This follows the biggest move since Friday’s 53 point gain of 1.6%. Eight members gained more than 1 point while just two lost more than a point: AAPL +5.7 vs +3.8 vs -1.2 vs +10 vs +3.5; AMZN +2.1 vs -2.3 vs +2.5 vs -1 vs +7.4; BIDU/CMCSA +1.5; ALXN +1.1; FB +1 vs -1.2 vs -1.2;  SYMC -2; GOOG -1.4 vs +6.3.

Advance/Declines and Breadth continue to see-saw and were positive. New 52 week highs rose to 476 a day after being cut by more than half to 298 vs 745 vs 746 vs 890, while new lows slipped to 29 vs 35 vs 36 vs 33 vs 40 – weak! VIX rose declined slightly after rising modestly for three straight sessions following the options expiry plunge to12.34, closing at 13.20 -.22. This since hitting 21.34 on 10/9 – close to the 12/28 high of 22.72 and 6/24 high of 21.91.

Bonds closed slightly weaker. Gold rallied sharply with a high of $1352.30 – highest print since 9/30 and closed +$16 taking out resistance at the 50 day m/a. Crude plunged to $95.95, lowest since 6/27 (saw gas yesterday at $3.09!), before bouncing to close at $97.11 up just 25 cents…but at least it was UP!

Dow 30 +0.6% vs -0.3% vs +0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.2%; Dow Transports +0.9% vs +0.6% vs +0.8% vs +0.4% vs +1.2%; Russell 2000 +0.7% vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.2% vs +1.1%; Dow Utilities -0.1% vs +0.3% vs +1.4%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; S&P 500 +03% vs -0.4% vs +0.6% vs flat vs +0.7%; Nasdaq Composite +0.6% vs -0.6% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.3%; NDQ 100 +0.5% vs -0.7% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.6%.

*NYSE Volume steady at 3.63B shares vs 3.64B vs 3.8B vs  3.05B vs 3.64B. The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume rose a tad to a still slightly below average 716M shares vs709M vs 753M vs 678M from a strong 892M shares!!! (2.06B shares also on Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 722M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, is just 699M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have been 34 800M+ shares in 2013: 14 up, 18 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose sharply to 476 after falling to a weak 298 from a  strong 745 vs 746 from a super-strong 890!!! New lows slipped to a weak 29 vs 35 vs 36 vs 33 vs 40..  

  1. Advance/Declines were slightly positive: +1.4x vs -1.2x vs +2.7x vs -1.1x vs +2.6x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +1.6x vs-1.4x vs +1.2x vs -1.1x vs +2.1x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: +1.4x vs -1.9x vs +2.1x vs -1.4x +1.6x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and +1.2x vs -3.4x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs +2x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials rose a modest 0.4% vs -1%! vs +0.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.4%. BofA most active -0.3% vs -2.1%!!! vs +0.1% vs -0.9% vs -0.3%, closing at $14.17 -.04. It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers +0.6% vs -0.6% vs +0.2% vs -0.5% vs +1%; KBW Banks flat vs -0.7% vs -0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.4%; Nasdaq Banks +0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.1% vs flat vs +0.7%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) declined slightly after three days of modest increases to 13.20 -.22. The recent range is now 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is now well BELOW the 40 day (15.45), the 50 day (15.33) and the 200 day (14.39)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

European stocks slightly higher, Asia WEAK, led by Japan: UK +0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.3%; France flat vs +0.1% vs -0.7%; Germany +0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.2%; Japan DOWN 2.8%!!! vs +0.4% vs -2%!; Hang Seng -0.6% vs -0.7% vs -1.4%; Korea -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -1%; India -0.2% vs -0.2% vs -0.5%. U.S. equity futures mixed in a very narrow range session: DOW -8; SPX -1.30; NDQ +5.25.

Bonds closed lower. Rallying modestly overnight including TIPS: 10 yr Treasury 2.51% +3/32 (recent range 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, 3.60% +3/32. The long TIP is 1.29% +1/2. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.237% 3 mos, 0.354% 6 mos. (another low).  Both at record lows!!! Banks cautious and loaded with cash!!! Foreign bonds mixed again – Italy biggest mover: Germany 1.76% -1; UK 2.63% +1; France 2.26% +1; Italy 4.21 +7; Spain 4.16% +3; Portugal 6.08% +1; Greece 8.33% -4. Recent range: 8.04%-12.57%. Japan 0.61% +1.

Gold closed very strong and took out the 50 day m/a putting in the highest print since 9/30 and closing +16.30 at $1350.30!!! This after putting in a low of $1251 on 10/15 – lowest since 7/10. Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19.  6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, as now is the 40 day ($1332) and the 50 day ($1343). Major resistance no at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is at $1439. Overnight it is lower at $1338.00 -$12.30!

Crude closed up slightly but WEAK and with an intraday low of $95.95 – lowest since 6/27!  It has shown no sign of strength since 9/18’s surge to $108.49 – since then it is off 9.9%!!! – closing at $97.80 -$1.422. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($104.15-104.66), crossed and major resistance! The 200 day ($98.63) is now major resistance. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. OVERNIGHT is little changed at $97.24 +.13

Some random thoughts:

If you read yesterday’s rant you realize that TB is sick and tired of this sham government of both parties that remains under the thumb of the ideologues of the extreme right – the Tea Party! This once great nation is rapidly becoming an oligarchy controlled by the top 0.1% of Americans and who is in total control of the government. Shame on the ‘good’ members of Congress for not going out on the Capitol steps (like the Dems when Clinton was under impeachment) and denouncing all that is bad in our government. We, the people, should be demanding it, but we don’t count…after all, how can we replace the millions they receive from the oligarchs?

Just as with the Robber Barons however, all ‘good things’ will come to an end. TB merely wishes that when some great ‘uniter’ comes along the mood will not be to destroy everyone and everything middle class and above.

How can these fools be so damned selfish, uncaring, and only care about having more money…when all it is good for is as a ‘counter’ to compare yourself with others as Ivan Boesky once remarked? Because they don’t care and the amazing thing is very few of them came from old money but made it…some like Gates through hard work, or Buffett through decades of successful investing, but most like the Koch brothers who found a way to game the system and use their might to break all laws, environmental and safety.

Someone better take a step back and recall that it is the majority that wins elections and all this ‘bribery’ can only go so far…then when people are thoroughly disgusted…a peaceful revolution will occur…history says so, not TB! In the meantime one can hope – that they come to their senses.

This party has functioned well under a two-party system for more than two centuries. But neither party exists as it used to and both are controlled by the wealthy. The real danger in this is as Romney found out: a day before the elections he thought he had the presidency in the bag, only to be defeated by Obama and an organization with long tentacles reaching out to small pockets of Americans. Is this to be the future of the GOP?

TB has struggled with the Gingrich and others word ‘elites’ to describe the left leaners. After all, weren’t Washington and Jefferson both elites? Well educated and wealthy? With slaves to boot! What are they trying to tell us? The ‘new’ elites?

Have a great weekend!

TB

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