9/23/13…yesterday was an ‘up’ day…a good thing???

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “My grandfather’s a little forgetful, and he likes to give me advice. One day he took me aside and left me there. – Ron Richards

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Betters three hours too soon than a minute too late.” – William Shakespeare

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Drop From Five-Year High; Metals Fall as Yen, Treasuries Strengthen

*ECB Says Review Into Bank’s Health Will be More Credible Than Prior Tests – oh???

*Apple Bets on Fans’ Devotion With higher Pricing in Debut of Newest IPads – hmmm

*Prices of Houses in U.S. Increased 8.5% in Year Through August, FHFA Says

*JPMorgan’s Eminence in Swaps Seen Fading Amid Penalties as Rivals Rebound – !!!

*Caterpillar Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Orders for Mining Equipment Decline

*Biggest Chinese Banks Triple Debt Write-Offs in Bracing for More Defaults

*Gensler Grip on Swaps Seen Threatened as U.S. Banks Seize on Footnote 513

*Apple Bullish Bets Climb to Six-Year High on New IPadsl, IPhones – good bet???

*Citigroup Captivated by Columbia Bonds as Peso Dumping Ebbs

*Blackstone Bonds finance Largest Single-Family Rentals in U.S.

*Riots in Rio Threat to World Cup Safety as Brazil Prepares for Match – go get ‘em!

*Health-Care Insurers CEOs Head to White House to Discuss Obamacare Troubles – oh oh…like Pharma did???

*Fixing Obamacare’s Website Seen Requiring Outsiders’ Perspective in Testing

*Afghanistan Hospital Almost Two Years Late, U.S. Inspector General Finds

Correction: Options expiration was LAST Friday. Having been out of the country TB was a week off. Note that last Friday was also the highest volume day since Sept. 20th – the last options expiry…there’s a message here!!!

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Caution: yesterday was an UP day…stocks, bonds, gold…only crude suffered!!! Cloudy!

Total NYSE Volume rose to 3.8B shares vs 3.05B vs 3.64B. REAL NYSE Volume also rose to an above average 753M shares vs 678M vs 892M shares – highest since 9/28’s 2.06B share day on quarterend with that big Dow member change. All indices were up BUT led by Dow Utilities +1.4%!!! Next came Dow Transports at +0.8%; the S&P 500 +0.6%, and the Dow +0.5% mixed with no big changes. The rest were up 0.2% to 0.4%.

The Nasdaq 100 rose just 5.75 points or 0.2% for a second day following that 53 point gain of 1.6%. Just five members gained more than 1 point while SIX lost more than a point (AMZN +2.5 vs -1 vs +7.4; AMGN +1.7; BIIB +1.6; GILD +1.5 vs -1.7 vs +1.2’ MALZ +1.2;SBUX +1; MSFT -3L FB/NFLX -1.7 vs +1.1; CSCO -1.3; APPL -1.2 vs +10 vs +3.5.

Advance/Declines and Breadth were both positivd. New 52 week highs were steady at 745 vs 746 vs a huge 890, while new lows blipped up to 36 vs 33 vs 40 – weak! VIX rose slightly for a second day following the options expiry plunge to12.34, closing at 13.33 +.17. Since hitting 21.34 on 10/9 – close to the 12/28 high of 22.72 and 6/24 high of 21.91 – over the Congressional debacle, it has fallen by 37%!!!

Bonds closed strong with the long end up over a point. Gold also closed STRONG gaining nearly 25 points. Crude was blasted falling to $97.50 – lowest since 6/27 – before bouncing slightly and is even lower overnight.

Dow 30 +0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.2%; Dow Transports +0.8% vs +0.4% vs +1.2%; Russell 2000 +0.3% vs -0.2% vs +1.1%; Dow Utilities +1.4%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; S&P 500 +0.6% vs flat vs +0.7%; Nasdaq Composite +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.3%; NDQ 100 +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.6%.

*NYSE Volume declined to a  below average 3.05B shares vs a solid 3.64B shares. The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume plunged to a slightly below average 678M shares from a strong 892M shares!!! (2.06B shares also on Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 719M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, is just 685M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have been 34 800M+ shares in 2013: 14 up, 18 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They were steady at a still strong 745 vs 746 from a super-strong 890!!! New lows rose slightly to a weak 36 vs 33 vs 40.  

  1. Advance/Declines were positive: +2.7x vs -1.1x vs +2.6x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +1.2x vs -1.1x vs +2.1x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was mixed: +2.1x vs -1.4x +1.6x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.1x vs +1.1x vs +2x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 0.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.4%. BofA 2nd most active +0.1$ vs -0.9% vs -0.3%, closing at $14.54 +.02. It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers +0.2% vs -0.5% vs +1%; KBW Banks -0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.4%; Nasdaq Banks +0.1% vs flat vs +0.7%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose slightly for a second day after plunging last Friday closing at 13.33 +0.17. The recent range is now 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is now well BELOW the 40 day (15.59), the 50 day (15.31) and the 200 day (14.40)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks weak…Asia hammered: UK -0.3%; France -0.7%; Germany -0.2%; Japan -2%!; Hang Seng -1.4%; Korea -1%; India -0.5%. U.S. equity futures weak: DOW -50; SPX -6.60; NDQ -13.

Bonds closed strong! Also up slightly overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.50% +1/8 (recent range 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, 3.60% +1/8. The long TIP is 1.31% +1/8. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.238% 3 mos, 0.356% 6 mos.  Both at record lows!!! Banks cautious and loaded with cash!!! Foreign bonds mixed – no big moves:. Germany 1.78% -1; UK 2.63% -1; France 2.27% -2; Italy 4.11% +2; Spain 4.14% -4; Portugal 6.11% +3; Greece 8.31% +4. Recent range: 8.04%-12.57%. Japan 0.60%.

Gold closed strong at $1340.70 +$24.90 with a session high of $1344.70!, safely above $1300 after putting in a low of $1251 on 10/15 – lowest since 7/10. Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19.  6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, as now is the 40 day ($1336) while the 50 day ($1342) is close and MAJOR RESISTANCE. The 200 day is at $1442.

Crude closed WEAK yet again with an intraday low of $98.60 – lowest since June 27  It has shown no sign of strength since 9/18’s surge to $108.49 – since then it is off 9.9%!!! – closing at $97.80 -$1.422. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($104.78-105.06), major resistance and crossed! The 200 day ($98.60) WAS major support but taken out overnight with a 97.50 print!!! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. OVERNIGHT is sharply lower at $96.69 -$1.61 with a session low of $96.32!!! – taking out the 200 day m/a!!!

Some random thoughts:

Back later with commentary. Never got to it yesterday…so many things to write and complain about…mostly banks, Congress

Have a good one!

TB

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