10/7/13…an ailing Congress and country

NOTE: there will be no blog from 10/9-10/19 as TB will be in Peru.

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I just heard about the greatest book club. You send in fifteen dollars a month for a year – and they leave you alone.” – unattributed

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “If all men were just, there would be no need of valor.” – Aegislaus – sounds ageless! TB

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Decline With Oil as Yen, Treasuries Rally on U.S. Funding Deadlock – sick!

*Dollar Rebound Seen by World’s Most-Accurate Forecaster as Economy Revives – hah!

*London Home Buyers With Foreign Cash Fuel Risky Loan Growth at U.K. Banks

*Twitter Valuation Seen Exceeding $20 Billion After IPO on Advancing Sales

*Airbus Wins First Ever Order From Japan Air to in $9.5 Billion Blow to Boeing

*Gold Befuddling Bernanke Saddles Central Bankers With $545 Billion Losses

*Hackers Target AT&T to Vodacom in SIM-Card Scam Causing $3.6 Billion in Losses

*Natural Gas Flows to Mexico Seen Doubling Overshadow LNG

*Feeding Soldiers in War Zone Enriches Billionaire Accused of Overcharging – nice!!

*An American Default Seen Unprecedented Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman Demise

*Congress Looks for Elusive Path Out of U.S. Shutdown With Debt Limit Raise – sure!

*Boehner Says House Won’t Vote to Boost Debt Limit Without Other Measures – idiot!

*Egypt Violence Extends to Second Day as Dissidents Target Security Forces

*Merkel’s Flirtation With Germany’s Green Party Increases Pressure on SPD

This week’s economic calendar is packed with important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the September Retail Sales and September PPI (Friday). We will also get August Consumer Credit (Monday), August JOLTs Job Openings (Tuesday), August Wholesale Trade (Wednesday), September Import & Export Prices (Thursday), October Consumer Sentiment Preliminary and August Business Inventories (Friday). In addition, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes to the September 17th–18th FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. The release dates for September Employment Situation, August Construction Spending, August Factory Orders and September Treasury Budget are yet to be determined due to the government shutdown. Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service.

Volume declined to 2.78B shares from 3.25B shares where it had resided for FOUR straight sessions. All indices were positive but none rose by 1%. Best were the two Nasdaq indices which rose 0.9% but lost 1.1% on Thursday!

The Nasdaq 100 gained back 29 of the 39.4 index points lost Thursday vs -0.2 vs +35 vs -12 vs -3.7 vs +25.5 points with 9 members moving by more than a point – all up escept Google! Advancer ran +9:1 vs -19:1!!! Let’s look again at the leaders and their changes over the past several sessions that they were leaders: FB +3 vs +1.4 vs +1.5 vs +1.6 vs +1.9 vs +2.5 vs +1.2 vs n/a vs +4 vs -2.8; GILD +1.8 vs -1.2; AMZN +1.7 vs -2.4 vs +5.4 vs -1.4 vs +2.2 vs -2 vs +1.7; CELG +1.3 vs -1.2; QCOM +1.4; BIIB +1.4 vs -2.6; AMGN +1.3 vs -1 vs -1.4; CMCSA +1.2; GOOG -1 vs -2.8 vs +2.9 vs -2.3, n/a -4.1, +1.2,-1.2, +4.2; -1.5 Missing the cut Friday: APPL n/a vs -5 vs +1.3 vs +9.1 vs +4.9 vs -2.8 vs +3.8 vs -6.1 vs -1.7 vs +19.2!!! vs -4.4 vs +6.4 vs +7.9 vs +4.2 vs -12.3 vs -6.5; MSFT n/a vs +2.5 vs +2 vs +3.9 vs +2.1 vs -2.5 vs -6.9 vs +2.2 vs +3 vs +1 vs -1.4 vs +2;  Advance/Declines and Breadth were positive. New 52 week highs rose while new lows slipped and remain weak. VIX reversed following Thursday’s blowout session when it surged to 18.71 before settling at 17.67. It closed at 16.74 -.93 with a range of 16.66-17.87. Range since 9/18 it 12.52-18.71!!! Unpredictable, especially without payrolls!

Bonds closed weaker – natch! Crude closed slightly higher – the new double bottom at $101.05 is major support – lowest since 7/5! Gold had a 2nd very narrow trading range, closing slightly lower..

Dow 30 +0.5% vs -0.9% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.8%; Dow Transports +0.5% vs -1.1% vs -0.4% vs  +1.4% vs -0.2%; Russell 2000 +0.7% vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs +1.3% vs flat; Dow Utilities +0.2% vs -1.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs flat; S&P 500 +0.7% vs -0.9% vs -0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.6%; Nasdaq Composite +0.9% vs -1.1% vs -0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.3%; NDQ 100 +0.9% vs -1.2% vs flat vs +1.1% vs –0.4%.

*NYSE Volume declined to a weak 2.78B shares after being steady for four days at 3.25B vs 3.18B vs 3.16B vs 3.28B vs 2.96B (Record high (?) 4.82B shares on Sept. options expiry while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume plunged to a very weak 597M shares vs 703M vs 691M vs 717M vs 878M vs 636M (2.06B shares also on Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 719M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, is just 692M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have been 33 800M+ shares in 2013: 13 up, 18 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose to 289 vs 232 vs 297 vs 424 vs 181. New lows declined to 56 vs 69 vs 64 vs 48 vs 64 vs  51 – weak!

  1. Advance/Declines were moderately positive: +1.9x vs -3.7x vs -1.3x vs +2.6x vs -1.5x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +2.2x vs -2.8x vs -1.5x vs +2.6x vs -1.2x (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was even better: +2.6x vs -4x! vs +1.4x vs +3.7x vs -2.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and +3.5x vs -3.6x vs +1.2x vs +3.4x vs -1.7x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials rosel by 0.7% vs -0.8% vs flat vs +0.9% vs -0.7%. BofA 2nd most active to JCP and still barely holding $14, +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +1.2% vs +0.7% vs -0.7%, closing at $14.05 +.05 – barely above the lowest levels since 8/30! It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers +1.1% vs -1.2% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -0.7%; KBW Banks +1.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq Banks +0.8% vs -0.5% vs -1.1% vs +1.2% vs +0.3%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) declined to 16.74 -.93 a day after it surged to nearly 19 and closing at 17.67 – highest close since 6/25!!! Range was at 16.66 to 17.87. A gap remains from 9/28 at 14.62-16.16 and now major support. On 8/30 it closed at 17.01 but a week prior it was at 13.98. The recent range is now 11.83-18.71. It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is now below the 40 day (14. 85), the 50 day (14.44) and the 200 day (14.46)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks weaker; UK -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.6% vs -0.4%; France -0.7% vs +0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.8% vs +0.6%; Germany -0.9% vs +0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.4%; Japan -1.2%! vs -0.9% vs -0.1% vs -2.2% vs +0.2%; Hang Seng -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +1% vs +0.6% vs closed; Korea -0.1% vs -0.1% vs flat two days vs +0.1%; India -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +2% vs closed vs +0.7%. U.S. equity futures WEAK: DOW -116; SPX -14! NDQ -22.50. Thank you, Congress…idiots that you are! All of you!

Bonds closed modestly lower. Overnight they up, offsetting Friday’s loss: 10 yr Treasury 2.61% +5/16 (recent range 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, 3.69% +1/2. The long TIP is 1.35% +1/2. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.243% 3 mos, 0.366% 6 mos.  Both at or setting new record lows: 6 mos. 3.666%, and the 3 mo. 0.243% respectively. Foreign bond yields minot changes and mixed. Germany 1.79% -5; UK 2.70% -4; France 2.33% -3; Italy 4.29% +1; Spain 4.20% +1; Portugal 6.29% +1; Greece 8.97% flat vs 9.10% vs 8.98% vs 8.85%!!! -21!!! vs 9.22% vs 9.15%!!! -30!!! vs 9.48% vs 9.59 vs 9.71%  +10 vs 9.57%!!! -26!!! vs 9.79% -25 vs 10.13 Recent range: 8.04%-12.57%. Japan 0.64% -1.

Gold closed lower Friday closing at $1309.90 -$7.70 in a 2nd very narrow range but remains above $1300, no mean after putting in a low of $1276.80 on 10/2 – lowest since 8/8 – then closing above $1300 at $1320.70. Overnight it is back up at $1316.40 +$8.50. Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19.  6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, while the 40 day ($1353) and the 50 day ($1344) are MAJOR RESISTANCE. The 200 day is at $1464.

Crude closed closed slightly better but still making 9 of the last 11 sessions down days closing at $103.84 +.47 – following an intraday high of $104.38, highest since 9/20. Wednesday’s intraday low was $101.06, a double bottom and thus major support – lowest since 7/5!!! 9/18’s session high was $108.49 from $104.94! Just 17 days ago it set a rally high and close of $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($106.18-105.88), and crossed! The 200 day ($97.98) is major support!!! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the spike to $112.24 on 8/28. That move was immediately rejected! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is WEAK at $102.12 -$1.72, near session low.

 

Some random thoughts:

Ist das nicht ein Octoberfest? Nein, das is nicht ein Octoberfest!!! Schtupid!!!

No what it is is a monster created by Congress for the preservation of incumbents. How so?

Yesterday on one of the talk shows the comment was made that what the Tea Party Reps are doing is perfectly rational and it is…after all, they are merely carrying out the wishes of those who elected them. But it that all there is to the story? Hell no!

What they have done is by gerrymandering their districts to protect one another, is create extreme right wing (Michelle Bachman), and extreme left wing districts (Nancy Pelosi)! This means that extremists have the power to ‘run’ Congress and the weak-in-the-knees Boehner, while being able to take the high road…high road to hell for America.

What is the difference between the two parties? The GOP has more extremists…thanks to Wall Street and its control of Congress and Grover Norquist along with people like the Koch brothers who feel the correct tax rate is ZERO! …and why not? They don’t use the schools, libraries, welfare, Obamacare, and they sure as hell don’t serve in the military. No, the right government for them is no government! – no government at all. Hey! They could form their own militias and we could be just like the Middle East! How special!

Meanwhile the majority of Americans are fed up (‘FED’ up?) with this nonsense which is decimating the middle class and increasing the poverty level.

Last night on 60 Minutes was an expose on disability. TB’s wife loves to watch Judge Judy. It seems that on questioning, the majority who are not working say they are collecting disability…they seem fine to TB. Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) said last night that the act clearly specifies that to qualify you must be unable to take any job. Really? Well, the ones on JJ sure seem fit to take a job if they had a desire and someone would hire them with their attitudes! Ah, another new batch of millionaires…ambulance chasing lawyers – some who pay off doctors and one who may have bribed a judge…why else would the judge be requesting to handle his cases??? Is there a solution? Not likely, after all, as two of the judges said, people lose jobs, then run out of unemployment benefits, and if they can’t find a job file for disability…logical progression, no? But this all leads back to Congress.

If Congress had not left it all up to the Fed to create jobs…even as the federal government has continued layoffs…mainly postal workers…we might have a solution, or at least a partial one…particularly if we cancelled those disability payments! Instead, the Tea Party, under the guise of balancing the budget…yet refusing to cancel subsidies since according the gospel of Grover Norquist: that would be a TAX INCREASE!!!

So here we stand, boys and girls…awaiting someone to come along and knock both parties on their heels and do something for America and Americans…hopefully not a vindictive person like Hitler, but one trying to restore equality and equal treatment.

Is this the country you want to live in? Are you proud to be an American?

Have a great week!

TB

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