10/1/13…where are the REAL reprsentatives?

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I worked some gigs in the Deep South…Alabama…you talk about Darwin’s waiting room. There are guys there that are their own father.” – Dennis Miller

 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Even when laws have been written down, they ought not always to remain unaltered.” – Aristotle. That’s right, Ari…change them but don’t hold the country hostage to politicians  who are either ideologues or just plain idiots! TB

 

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*U.S. Government Shutdown Idles 800,000 as Congress Hits Health-Law Impasse-sick!

*Stocks Advance as Dollar Weakens on U.S. Shutdown Outlook; Treasuries Fall

*Abe Agrees to Japan Sales-Tax Increase in Biggest Risk for Reflation Plan

*Merck to Fire 8,500 in R&D Revamp After U.S. Regulators Delay New Drugs

*Debt Ceiling Wall of Worry Creates Another Reason for Investing in America – uh…

*Shutdown Raises Disquiet Outside U.S. Evan as Global Recovery Seen Intact

*Obama Says Any Fed Chairman Nominee Will Keep Bernanke’s ‘Smart Policies’ – ???

*Chrysler Group Reports Surprise 0.7% Sales Gain to Extend Its U.S. Streak – 0.7%?

*Mexican Drug Wars Won’t Dent Hotel Growth as Tourism Thrives – ay, carbon!

*Miami Beach Banker Party Shows Why Hotel Loans Fill Bond Deals

*Gibraltar Seen as Europe-Beater for Finance Professionals – avoiding taxes!

*Obama in Shutdown Politics Channels Clinton Who Didn’t Know He Was Winning

*Shutdown Seen Weakening Republican Favor for Confrontation on Debt Limit – DUH!

*New York’s Lawsky Sees Obamacare as Model to Simplify Home Insurer Pricing

*German Social Democrats to Demand More Women in Merkel Coalition Cabinet

*Vatican Bank Tainted by Scandal Publishes Accounts in Transparency Push – Ha!

The quarter is dead…long live the quarter! It ended on a sour note with all indices declining and once again on above average volume. Still, one cannot discount the final adjustments of index funds, etc. in that volume and perhaps high frequency traders thinking they would need to buy more. The Dow was worst performer -0.8%, followed by NYSE Financials -0.7% and the S&P 500 -0.6% while the two Nasdaq indices fell by about 0.3%. Dow Transports had just a 0.2% decline. Dow Utilities were flat along with the Russell 2000 making then the winners.

The Nasdaq 100 lost 12 points vs -3.7 vs +25.5 points with just 4 members moving by more than a point…all of them to the downside! Decliners bested by 1.7:1. Let’s look again at the leaders and their changes over the past 11 sessions that they were leaders: APPL +4.9 vs -2.8 vs +3.8 vs -6.1 vs -1.7 vs +19.2!!! vs -4.4 vs +6.4 vs +7.9 vs +4.2 vs -12.3 vs -6.5; FB +1.4 vs +1.5 vs +1.6 vs +1.9 vs +2.5 vs +1.2 vs n/a vs +4 vs -2.8; AMZN -1.4 va +2.2 vs -2 vs +1.7, vs n/a, vs +3.2, +3.3; GILD -1 vs +1.5 vs -1.4, n/a -1.7;. Here are others that weren’t movers yesterday: MSFT +3.9 vs +2.1 vs -2.5 vs -6.9 vs +2.2 vs +3 vs +1 vs -1.4 vs +2; GOOG -2.3, n/a -4.1, +1.2,-1.2, +4.2; Advance/Declines and Breadth were both negative again. New 52 week were stable while new lows rose. VIX rose sharply for a 2nd day ballast through 16 with a high of 17.49!!!

Bonds were little changed most of the day then rallied slightly at the close. Crude moderately lower and very weak, taking out the double bottom at 102.26 and falling to $101.05 – lowest since 7/5! Gold was weak but with an intraday high of $1353.80 – above both the 40/50 day before plummeting. It continues to hold above $1300.

Dow 30 -0.8% vs -0.5% vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs -0.4%. Dow Transports -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs +0.1%; Russell 2000 flat vs -0.4% vs +0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; Dow Utilities flat vs -0.7% vs -0.2% vs 0.7% vs -0.1% vs +1%; S&P 500 -0.6% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq Composite -0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.1%; NDQ 100 –0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.8% vs –0.3% vs -0.1%.

*NYSE Volume rose again to 3.28B shares vs 2.96B vs 2.79B vs 3.12B  vs 3.2B (Record high (?) 4.82B shares on options expiry while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume also rose to 878M – 1st time above 800M in a week – vs 636M vs 603M vs 641M vs 674M. (2.06B shares also on expiry was 3rd highest ever (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 719M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, is just 689M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have now been 33 800M+ shares in 2013: 13 up, 18 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They were stable at 181 vs 186 vs 271 vs 276 vs 367. New lows rose to 64 vs  51 vs 44 vs 43 vs 49 – weak!

  1. Advance/Declines were negative again: -1.5x vs -2x vs +1.8x vs 1:1 vs +1.3x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.2x vs -1.6x vs +1.5x vs -1.1x vs +1.2x (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: -2.2x vs -2.7x vs +1.4x vs 1:1 vs -1.1x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.7x vs -1.2x vs +1.9x vs +1.4x vs +1.5x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x)  
  2. NYSE Financials were weak at -0.7% vs -0.4x vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.3%. BofA most active -0.7% vs -1% vs -0.4% vs +0.5%, closing at $13.80 -.10 – lowest levels since 8/30! It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.7% vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs flat vs -0.5%; KBW Banks -0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.7% vs -0.4% vs -1.6%!!!; Nasdaq Banks +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.6%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) SOARED after being below 14 for three sessions, closing at 16.62 +1.16 – highest since 8/30!!! Range was at 16.16-17.49!!! vs Friday’s low 12.52. It gapped up on the open from 14.62-16.16!!! On 8/30 it closed at 17.01 but a week prior it was at 13.98. The recent range is now 11.83-17.81. It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is now below the 40 day (14. 54), the 50 day (14.21) and the 200 day (14.46)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks up, ex-UK after three down days; UK -0.4% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs -0.2%; France +0.6% vs -1.3% vs –0.2% vs -0.2% vs -0.2%; Germany +0.4% vs -1.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs flat; Japan +0.2% vs -2.1%!!! vs -0.3% vs +1.2%! vs -0.8%; Hang Seng closed vs -1.5% vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs +0.1%; Korea +0.1% vs -0.7% vs +0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.5%; India +0.7% vs -1.8% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -0.3%. U.S. equity futures higher and you guessed it back in that narrow trading range! DOW +33; SPX +4.40; NDQ +10.25. Rejoice!…I think…at least it’s a new quarter!

Bonds closed slightly better after being down slightly most of the session. They are not strong but have erased the gap down from 8/30! Overnight however they are WEAK again: 10 yr Treasury closed 2.61% +1/8 but currently 2.63% -1/8(recent range 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, 3.71% -7/16 vs 3.68 +1/32. The long TIP closed 1.35% +7/16 and is now 1.36% -1/4. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.246% 3 mos, 0.368% 6 mos.  Both around new record lows: 6 mos. 3.67%, and the 3 mo. 0.245% (0.245% and 0.367% respectively). Foreign bond yields little changed ex Spain, Portugal and Greece (lowest since 6/4!): Germany 1.79% +1; UK 2.71% -1; France 2.32% +1; Italy 4.55% -1; Spain 4.21% -8; Portugal 6.46% -6; Greece 8.85%!!! -21!!! vs 9.22% vs 9.15%!!! -30!!! vs 9.48% vs 9.59 vs 9.71%  +10 vs 9.57%!!! -26!!! vs 9.79% -25 vs 10.13 Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%. Japan 0.66% -2.

Gold soared to $1353.80 +$15 taking out the 40/50 day before tumbling to close at $1327.00 -$12.20 and continues to oscillate following Monday’s low of $1313.40 which held as did $1300. The recent low was 9/18 at $1291.50, first time below $1300 since 8/9! Overnight it is being slammed again and traded as low as $1294.10 – lowest since 9/18!!! It is now $1302.60 -$24.40is little changed at $1332.40 -$1.20. Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19 while 9/10’s high was $1391.40. 9/17’s low $1304.60!!! 8/14’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, while the 40 day ($1351) and the 50 day ($1346) are MAJOR RESISTANCE. The 200 day is at $1472.

Crude closed modestly weaker marking SEVEN straight down days closing at $102.33 -.54 – BUT with an intraday low of $101.05, taking out the $102.20 DOUBLE BOTTOM – lowest close since 7/5!!! 9/18’s session high was $108.49 from $104.94! Just 15 days ago it set a rally high and close of $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($106.34-.22), and crossed! The 200 day ($97.65) is major support!!! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the high the spike to $112.24 on 8/28. That move was immediately rejected! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is WEAK at $101.29 -$1.58 with a low of $101.20 –lowest since July 5th! Talks with Iran continue to put pressure on it.

 

Some random thoughts:

We are witnessing the decline and fall of the GOP and with it the hopes of the 0.01% of Americans who never have enough…money that is…and won’t until they have more than anyone else. Once they get there their goal will be to stay there. But as we know someone always comes along to knock them off. Why is this such a big thing…and why do a few of those at the top not struggle to remain their and actually did not desire to be there but got to that level through good fortune and circumstance. They should be speaking out. Warren Buffett once did but did he mean it?

Meanwhile not only is the country…and the recovery being held hostage to a minority of ideologues within the GOP – that only a few so far have been critical of – but they are spreading lies about the impact of Obamacare and the ‘favoritism’ being shown. They have even misrepresented the ‘subsidy’ to Congress when in fact every taxpayer gets the same break! Yet we listen to their lies…and worse their fellow Congressmen who share their 10% approval rating…how did it get that high? Must be a lot of fools out there!

Why, instead of letting them have their way…which is no way at all and they like it like that…don’t the rational (sic) ones on both sides of the aisle stand together in protest – or at least within their own party??? Fools, and becoming rich ones. Ah, and they are all taking advantage of this break to raise more money for their re-election. Let’s hope Sen. Ted Cruz is a one-time wonder…send him back to the state of Texas which he thinks is so great and where more than half the residents have no form of health insurance. Sick!

Have a great day! Happy new quarter…hope you survived the last one!

TB

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1 Comment »

  1. Yarnman said

    TB–Todays laugher from a Bloomberg on-line story this morning:

    “European Union regulators inadvertently sent confidential data to 13 of the world’s biggest lenders as part of an antitrust complaint in an investigation of the credit derivatives industry.
    “The European Commission said a limited amount of sensitive information was accidentally left in the documents by law firms representing companies in the probe. After the revelation was discovered, recipients including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) were told they must promise to destroy the information without reading it.”

    Yeh, right! Are they kidding?–Yarnman

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