9/26/13…is Ted Cruz a ‘Dimon’ in the rough?

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Cordless phones are great, if you can find them.” – Glenn Foster

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The long arm of coincidence.” – Haddon Chambers (Police investigators place little or no value on ‘coincidence.’

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*U.S. Economy Expanded at a 2.5% Annual Rate in 2nd Quarter Rev. – no change!

*Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Falls to 305,000

*JPMorgan Said to See Possible $11 Billion Settlement – awww, poor Jamie!

*JPMorgan Fines Seen by Portales as Jeopardizing Stock Buybacks – but bonuses?

*Rising Rates Seen Squeezing Swaps Income at Biggest U.S. Banks – more awww!

*U.S. Index Futures Advance With Commodities as Yen Pares Decline

*Deutsche Bank Said to Propose Creating Bond Platform With Rivals

*U.K. Prosecutors Said to Plan More Libor Changes in October –Libor at new lows!

*NYSE Said to Join Nasdaq Weighing Plan to Collaborate on Backups

*Manager Dan Fuss Trounces Bond Competitors by Thinking Like a Stock Picker

*Deaths Linked to Cardiac Stents Rise as a Third Called Unneeded

*Trading Pains Seen in Deutsche Bank Index Trailing – tough year for bondos!

*Camry Losing No. 1 in U.S. After 12-Year Reign Seen in ‘14

*Japan Pension Panel Advises State to Weigh Diversifying Holdings

*Pimco Sees Buffett’s India Dream Cut to Junk as Vote Looms

*EBay Agrees to Acquire Payments Service Braintree for $800 Million in Cash

*Brazil Stock Rebound From Protests Converges With Sao Paolo’s Fix-It Mayor

*Emerging Market Bonds Stage Comeback in Tripling U.S. Debt

*Boehner Beset by Obamacare Foes in Party Races Clock to Stave Off Shutdown

*Americans Reject by 61% Obama Demdn for Clean Debt Ceiling Vote in Poll

*Kenya Working with Interpol to Track Down Mall Attackers After 72 Killed

*Boomers Face Caregiver Shortage as New U.S. Rules Aim to Lift Supply

*Ellison’s Oracle Team USA Keeps America’s cup Vision Alive After Victory – TB has to give it to the team but loathes Ellison and his actions…thankfully they won or he would have probably ordered them all whipped! The man cannot stand to be number two –ever!

 

Yet another day with little if any information for investors to trade on. All indices were DOWN except the NYSE Financials subset. Worst performers were Dow Transports and Utilities each -07% followed by the Dow 30 -0.4% and S&P 500/NDQ 100 each down 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 gave up 10 points with eight members moving by more than a point! Let’s look at the leaders and their changes over the past EIGHT sessions that they were leaders: APPL -6.1 vs -1.7 vs +19.2!!! vs -4.4 vs +6.4 vs +7.9 vs +4.2 vs -12.3 vs -6.5 – do you see a trend here???; GOOG -2.3, n/a -4.1, +1.2,-1.2, +4.2;;GILD -1.4, n/a -1.7; AMGN-1.5, n/a, -1.2; FB +1.6 vs +1.9 vs +2.5 vs +1.2 vs n/a vs +4 vs -2.8; CSCO +1.4; ESRX +1.2; AMAT +1. Here are others that weren’t movers yesterday: MSFT -2.5 vs -6.9 vs +2.2 vs +3 vs +1 vs -1.4 vs +2; AMZN -2 vs +1.7, vs n/a, vs +3.2, +3.3. Advance/Declines and Breadth were little changed and insignificant. New 52 week slipped while new lows plunged for a second day, both reversing Monday’s changes.

Bonds continue to rally from their weakened state – amazing!!! Crude declined yet again  trading at lowest since 7/8! Gold had a solid session, continues to hold $1300 but remains weak! A tough one to call.

Dow 30 -0.4% vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.2% vs -0.3% vs +1%; Dow Transports -0.7% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs -0.5% vs +0.3% vs +1.5%; Russell 2000 -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +1%; Dow Utilities –0.7% vs -0.1% vs +1% vs -1.5% vs -0.3% vs +3%!!!; S&P 500 -0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.7% vs -0.2% vs +1.2%; Nasdaq Composite -0.2% vs +0.1% vs -.3% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +1%; NDQ 100 –0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +1.3%.

*NYSE Volume slipped and remains at a below average 3.12B shares vs 3.2B vs 3.07B from a record high (?) 4.82B shares vs 3.72B vs 3.96B (2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume also slipped to a below average 641M shares vs 674M vs 690M from the third highest ever, 2.06B shares (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B) vs 738M vs 820M (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 719M shares. The range since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, excluding the four sessions above 800M, is 482M-798M shares. The average since 6/28 is just 689M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M plus the 2.025B shares on Friday. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have been 32 800M+ shares in 2013: 13 up, 17 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They slipped to 276 vs 367 vs 221 vs 590 vs 587 vs 310. New lows also slipped to a weak 43 vs 49 vs 168! vs 36 vs 56 vs 59.

  1. Advance/Declines were neutral: 1:1 vs +1.3x vs -1.4x vs -2.5x vs-1.4x vs +6x!!!; (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.1x vs +1.2x vs -1.3x vs -1.1x vs -1.2x vs +2.8x (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was mixed again: 1:1 vs -1.1x vs -2.1x vs -4x!!! vs -1.7x vs +7.2x!!! (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and +1.4x vs +1.5x vs -2.1x vs -1.5x vs +1.3x vs +3x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose slightly by +0.2% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.7%! BofA 2nd most active (JCP plunged 14.6%!!! on downgrade by GS) +0.5% vs +0.1% vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.1% vs -0.7% vs +1.3%, closing at $14.14 +.05 – lowest since 8/30! It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.1% vs flat vs -0.5% vs +0.4% vs -0.5% vs -0.9%!; KBW Banks +0.7% vs -0.4% vs -1.6%!!! vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.2%; Nasdaq Banks +0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs -1.4%!!! vs -0.3%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) dipped below 14 for a 2nd day but closed at 14.01 -.07. Range was 13.89-14.62 vs Friday’s low 12.52. On 8/30 it closed at 17.01 but a week prior it was at 13.98. The recent range is now 11.83-17.81. It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is now below the 40 day (14. 27), the 50 day (14.08) and the 50 day (14.50)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

European stocks weaker, Asia mixed: UK -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.2% vs +1.4%!!!; France -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.7% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.9%; Germany -0.2% vs flat vs +0.3% vs -0.4% vs -0.2% vs +1%; Japan +1.2%! vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs closed vs -0.2% vs +1.8% vs +1.4%; Hang Seng -0.4% vs +0.1% vs -0.8% vs -0.6% vs closed vs +1.7%; Korea +0.5% vs -0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs  closed vs -0.4%; India +0.2% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -1.8%!!! vs -1.2%! vs +3.4%!!! U.S. equity futures slightly higher in what has become the norm: a very narrow trading range! DOW +24; SPX +3.10; NDQ +13.25.

Bonds continued to recover for a FOURTH day, and have erased the gap down from 8/30! Overnight they are modestly weaker: 10 yr Treasury closed 2.62%, now 2.63% -1/32 (recent range now 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, closed 3.65%, now 3.68% -1/8. The long TIP closed 1.34% and is now 1.37% -3/8…weakest of the bunch! The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.248% 3 mos, 0.368 6 mos. Another new record low on 6 mos. 3.68%, and now the 3 mo. took out the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields generally higher: Germany 1.82% -1; UK 2.72% -3; France 2.34% -1; Italy 4.34% +10!; Spain 4.34% +7; Portugal 6.90% +1; Greece 9.48% +7 vs 9.59 vs 9.71%  +10 vs 9.57%!!! -26!!! vs 9.79% -25 vs 10.13 Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%. Japan 0.69% +2.

Gold closed higher, eradicating Tuesday’s loss as Monday’s low of $1313.40 held as did $1300, closing at $1336.20 +$19.90. The low a week ago was $1291, first time below $1300 since 8/9! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1337.50 +$1.30. 9/16’s high was $1336 – above the 50 day. A week ago Friday’s low $1304.60!!! 8/14’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, while the 40 day ($1350) and the 50 day ($1344) are MAJOR RESISTANCE. The 200 day is at $1476.

Crude closed slightly weaker, its FIFTH straight down day closing at $102.66 -.47 – with an intraday low of $102.20!!! lowest close since 7/8!!! 9/18’s session high was $108.49 from $104.94! Just 13 days ago it set a rally high and close of $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($106.57-.42), and crossed! The 200 day ($97.48) is now major support!!! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the high the spike to $112.24 on 8/28. That move was immediately rejected! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly better at $103.09 +.43. Color it ‘weak’!

 

Some random thoughts:

Is Sen. Cruz (Texas, natch!) the reincarnation of Sen. Joe McCarthy? Either way he is fast becoming a) the nemisis of the GOP, and b) wealthy due to the pool of idiots supporting him while he ties up the Senate…and the country with his blatherings. Over what? Politics and ideology!

Much has been said about the last time the government was shut down…under yet another Republican beginning in December 1995 and lasting until early 1996. Who was the speaker then? Not the impotent John Boehner but Newt Gingrich who (other than his henchman Tom DeLay who later was convicted of bribes), but his cause was a just one, although it inflicted pain on businesses and some individuals…such as shutting down Yosemite National Park during the holidays – its major fund-producing time due to the holiday festivities at the Ahwanee. But it served a purpose…for a time…until, even as Gingrich will tell you, his spending cuts were thwarted and way more than offset by his own party. This is what folly this all is while the markets, people, and credit of this great country suffer at the hands of FOOLS…IDEOLOGUES…dare TB say @#$holes???

But what is Cruz after…to destroy the Alternative Care Act! Also to the GOP: cut the crap about ‘repeal and replace’ and admit it…you don’t want it.

Thanks to the interpretation of the Constitution regarding insurance and states rights, we, the people, are paying more and also at the expense of shareholders of health insurance companies. No, the federal government must leave it up to the states to regulate insurance. Didn’t we see what happened to AIG? Isn’t it interesting that Texas will have the highest insurance rates under the Act? You can bet that the insurance lobby is putting up millions to kill it, because someone will investigate and post rates for all states.. Meanwhile, some states, like Minnesota will have low rates. Interestingly, it is home to UnitedHealth, the largest insurer.

This is about more than individuals though…it is about mobility in an increasingly ‘nomadic’ country. Why should you risk losing your insurance, or paying a huge premium for it when you move? Have any of you thought about this?

As for shareholders, each of the insurers has to have a subsididary in each staste they do business. Think of the overhead of multiple execs, staffs, and administration costs…paid for by the shareholders in the interest of ‘states rights’. Imagine living in a state with four or fewer health insurers…they exist! You are held hostage.

This is what Sen. Cruz is fighting for? No, like all the others he is milking the system to enrich himself…even at the expense of hurting the country and his own party. But do renegades even care about the party? Not hardly!

Ah, and in banking poor JPMorganChase and its fearless leader the wunderkind turned adult, Jamie Dimon show just what moral responsibility he has placed on his minions: mainly none except to make money…and now it is all coming back to haunt them. Pity the poor shareholders and all the states, local governments, borrowers, and others they have fleeced over the past decade. Aye, Jamie, you learned well at the knee of Sanford Weil, didn’t ye? Frankly you make TB sick! You and your well-heeled lobbyists who do all in their power to gut Dodd-Frank and any protections for investors and the taxpayers.

You aren’t worth discussing anymore…except in terms of seeking a replacement! Even then you will leave a wealthy man (sic).

Have a great day,

 

TB

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1 Comment »

  1. Yarnman said

    TB–Dimon must figure that paying over $16B (and still counting?) in fines is merely the cost of doing business. The DA must have had a very good case to collect $11B on this latest settlement. Dimon has screwed his shareholders. Two questions: when will his board wise up, and when will the DA’s perp walk occur? –Yarnman

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