9/25/13…what regulators???

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Being a New Yorker means never having to say you’re sorry.” – Lilly Tomlin…the big bankers know this!

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “What’er is well conceived is clearly said, and the word to say it flow with ease.” – Nicolas Boileau-Depreaux…sadly, same goes for lies to a point.

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Demand for U.S. Durable Goods Climbs as Investment Shows Signs of Strength

*Biggest Banks Cut Basel Capital Shortfall by $112 Billion at End of 2012 – how???

*JPMorgan Said in Negotiations to Settle U.S. Charges in Libor Manipulation Case

*Three Former ICAP Brokers Facing U.S. Charges in Libor Manipulation Case

*U.S. Probing 16 Financial Institutions Over Residential MBS, Clayton Says

*Euro Escaping Crisis Stigma in Derivatives Market Greets Third Merkel Term

*S&P 500 Index Futures Reverse Earlier Losses as Treasuries Erase Advances

*Senate Democrats Propose Short Stopgap Window as Cruz Begins Floor Attack

*Obama Unveils $3,000-a-Year Health Law Premium Seen Testing Affordability

*Pakistan Earthquake That Killed 271 Also Created New Island in Arabian Sea

*Iraq Threatens to Cut Crude Oil Revenue to Kurds Over Pipeline to Turkey  

Another day with little if any information for investors to trade on.. Only the Russell 2000 +0.3% and Dow Transports/Nasdaq Comp, both +0.1% were up. Worst Performer was the Dow 30 -0.4%, followed by the S&P 500 and NYSE Financials -0.3%.

The Nasdaq 100 gave up just 1 point with only four members moving by more than a point! Let’s look at the leaders and their changes over the past seven sessions that they were leaders: MSFT -2.5 vs -6.9 vs +2.2 vs +3 vs +1 vs -1.4 vs +2; APPL -1.7 vs +19.2!!! vs -4.4 vs +6.4 vs +7.9 vs +4.2 vs -12.3 vs -6.5 – do you see a trend here???; FB +1.9 vs +2.5 vs +1.2 vs n/a vs +4 vs -2.8. AMAT +1. Advance/Declines were slightly positive while Breadth was little changed and mixed. New 52 week bounced back and new lows plunged both reversing Monday’s changes.

Bonds continue to rally from their weakened state – for how long? Crude declined again t trading lowest since 7/8! Gold also weak but still holding above $1300!

Dow 30 -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.2% vs -0.3% vs +1%; Dow Transports +0.1% vs -0.6% vs -0.5% vs +0.3% vs +1.5%; Russell 2000 +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +1%; Dow Utilities -0.1% vs +1% vs -1.5% vs -0.3% vs +3%!!!; S&P 500 -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.7% vs -0.2% vs +1.2%; Nasdaq Composite +0.1% vs -.3% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +1%; NDQ 100 –0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +1.3%.

*NYSE Volume rose to a still below average 3.2B shares vs 3.07B from a record high (?) 4.82B shares vs 3.72B vs 3.96B (2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume slipped to a below average 674M shares vs 690M from the third highest ever, 2.06B shares (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B) vs 738M vs 820M (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 719M shares. The range since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, excluding the four sessions above 800M, is 482M-798M shares. The average since 6/28 is just 689M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M plus the 2.025B shares on Friday. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have been 32 800M+ shares in 2013: 13 up, 17 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose to 367 vs 221 vs 590 vs 587 vs 310. New lows gave back all of Monday’s gains to 49 vs 168! vs 36 vs 56 vs 59.

  1. Advance/Declines were positiive: +1.3x vs -1.4x vs -2.5x vs-1.4x vs +6x!!!; (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +1.2x vs -1.3x vs -1.1x vs -1.2x vs +2.8x (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was mixed: -1.1x vs -2.1x vs -4x!!! vs -1.7x vs +7.2x!!! (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and +1.5x vs -2.1x vs -1.5x vs +1.3x vs +3x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x)  
  2. NYSE Financials fell again by 0.3% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.7%! BofA most active +0.1% vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.1% vs -0.7% vs +1.3%, closing at $14.15 +.01 – lowest since 8/30! It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers flat vs -0.5% vs +0.4% vs -0.5% vs -0.9%!; KBW Banks -0.4% vs -1.6%!!! vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.2%; Nasdaq Banks +0.6% vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs -1.4%!!! vs -0.3%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) waffled before closing slightly lower at 14.08 -.23. Range was 13.75-14.37!!! vs Friday’s low 12.52. Two weeks ago it closed at 17.01 but a week prior it was at 13.98. The recent range is now 11.83-17.81. It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is now below the 40 day (14. 27), the 50 day (14.08) and the 50 day (14.50)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Globsl stocks weaker: UK -0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.2% vs +1.4%!!!; France -0.2% vs +0.7% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.9%; Germany flat vs +0.3% vs -0.4% vs -0.2% vs +1%; Japan -0.8% vs -0.1% vs closed vs -0.2% vs +1.8% vs +1.4%; Hang Seng +0.1% vs -0.8% vs -0.6% vs closed vs +1.7%; Korea -0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs  closed vs -0.4%; India -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -1.8%!!! vs -1.2%! vs +3.4%!!! U.S. equity futures little changed in what has become the norm: a very narrow trading range! DOW +13; SPX -4.42; NDQ +3.25.

Bonds continued to recover for a third day with solid gains, and have erased the gap down from 8/30! Overnight they are modestly higher: 10 yr Treasury closed 2.65%, now 2.65% +1/16 (recent range now 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, closed 3.67%, now 3.66% +3/32. The long TIP closed 1.35% and is now 1.34% +3/32. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.248% 3 mos, 0.369 6 mos. Another new record low on 6 mos. 3.69%, and now the 3 mo. took out the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields mixed: Germany 1.84% -1; UK 2.78% -1; France 2.36% +1; Italy 4.24% -1; Spain 4.27% +1; Portugal 6.93% +2; Greece 9.48% -8 vs 9.59 vs 9.71%  +10 vs 9.57%!!! -26!!! vs 9.79% -25 vs 10.13 Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%. Japan 0.66% unched.

Gold closed weaker again but Monday’s low of $1313.40 held as did $1300, closing at $1316.30 -$10.70 after bouncing from a week ago’s $1291, first time below $1300 since 8/9! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1319.00 +$2.70. 9/16’s high was $1336 – above the 50 day. A week ago Friday’s low $1304.60!!! 8/14’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, while the 40 day ($1350) and the 50 day ($1342) were breached and are now MAJOR RESISTANCE. The 200 day is at $1480.

Crude closed slightly weaker after being pummeled the prior THREE sessions closing at $103.13 -.46 – with an intraday low of $102.30!!! lowest close since 7/8!!! Wednesday’s session high was $108.49 from $104.94! Just 12 days ago it set a rally high and close of $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($106.66-.58), and crossed! The 200 day ($97.32) is now major support!!! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the high the spike to $112.24 on 8/28. That move was immediately rejected! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly better at $103.83 +.70. Nothing to see here!

 

Some random thoughts:

Once again the banks and JPM in particular under scrutiny…ah, sweet scrutiny with no end result. Also, investment advisors have been critical of FINRA being merged with NASD thus putting it under control of the …brokers! Ah, but now that they have created ‘financial advisors’ which for most are merely glorified commissioned salesmen with NO fiduciary duty to their clients, their regulatory agency found that some of these commission only FA’s listed themselves as ‘no fee.’ So what did the regulators do? Fine them? Chastize them? No…they removed all references to fees in their listings for ALL FA’s who now have to reapply. This is insane and unjust. Some regulators!!!

We have regulations and NO real regulators…

Have a great day,

 

TB

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