9/13/13…Friday the 13th part XXX – the banks have it!

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I saw a bumper sticker the other day that said, “Jesus is my best friend.” Boy, his dog must be pissed.” – anon.

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Home is the place where, when you have to go there, they have to take you in.” – Robert Frost

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Retail Sales in U.S. Increased Less Last Month Than Economists Estimated: +0.2%

*Wholesale Prices in U.S. Climb More-Than-Forecast 0.3% on Energy, Food

*Fed Easy Credit Message Muddled as Misunderstood Taper Meets Slower Growth

*U.S. Stock Futures Little Changed as Sales Data Point to Slowing Recovery

*Twitter Seeking to Avoid Facebook’s IPO Stumble With Its Own Market Debut

*Japan to Consider Corporate Tax Reduction in Package to Counter Sales Levy

*Federal Reserve Taper Start Seen as Non-Event in Global Poll of Investors

*Mall Owners Go From First to Last as U.S. Retail Spending Slows – get it???

*Companies With IRS Help Raising Bonuses at Taxpayer-to-Shareholder Expense

*Banks Converge With Hedge Funds Shiftng Risks as Capital Rules Take Hold – Hah!  

*Kerry Calls Russia Talks on Syria Constructive While No Breakthrough Seen

*Delhi Court Hands Down Death Penalty to Four Defendants in Gang Rape Case

It never ceases to cause TB worry and wonder at the market action of late. Yesterday stocks were weaker but on low volume…in the Nasdaq 100 only two stocks, Apple +4.1 and QCOM +1.1 moved the index by more than one point – in either direction! With 3:1 declining the index was off just 4.30 or 0.1%…makes sense, right? WRONG! This is a heavily manipulated market with retail investors confused and sidelined. Ah, not to worry. Twitter has selected Goldamn to run their IPO…ain’t that special. ‘nuf said:

* Dow 30 -0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.9% vs +0.9% vs -0.1%; Dow Transports -1.1% vs flat vs +1.9% vs +1.4% vs -0.2%; Russell 2000 -0.6% vs flat vs +0.9% vs +1.6% vs flat; Dow Utilities -0.3% vs -1.1%! vs +0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.6%; S&P 500 -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +1% vs flat; Nasdaq Composite -0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +1.3% flat; NDQ 100 -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +1.2% vs flat.

*NYSE Volume slightly lower at a below average 3.06B shares vs 3.1B vs 3.46B vs 3B vs 2.1B (2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume also slipped to a weak 642M shares vs 657M vs 773M vs 638M vs 672M  (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 720M shares. The range since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, excluding the four sessions above 800M, is 482M-798M shares. The average since 6/28 is just 668M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 31 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They declined again to 271 vs 355M vs 429 vs 309 vs 227. New lows slipped to 95 vs 100 vs 65 vs 49 vs 87 – 579-27 is the recent range.

  1. Advance/Declines were negative: -2.1x vs +1.3x vs +1.8x vs +4x vs n/a; (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -1.8x vs -1.1x vs +2x vs +3.1x vs n/a (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was also negative: -2.2x vs +1.5x vs +2.5x vs +6.4x! vs n/a (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and -2.2x vs +1.4x vs +2x vs +6.5x!!! vs n/a (recent is -12.8x to +6.5x)  
  2. NYSE Financials fell by 0.6% vs +0.2% vs +1.1% vs +1.6% vs +0.2%. BofA 2nd most active to Nokia again -1.2% vs +0.3% vs +1.1% vs +0.8% vs +0.1%, closing at $14.48 -.17. It has struggled since hitting $15.03 a month ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.9% vs -0.8% vs +1.5% vs +1.5% vs n/a;  KBW Banks -0.6% vs -0.3% vs +1% vs +0.7% +0.7%; Nasdaq Banks -0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs +0.7% vs n/a.  
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) finally rose after plunging for three straight days and is again above 14 at 14.29 + .47. Two weeks ago it closed at 17.01 but a week prior it was at 13.98. The recent range is now 11.83-17.81. It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is now below the 40 day (14.12), the 50 day (14.33) and the 50 day (14.24)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks mixed again and little changed: UK -0.2% vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.9% vs n/a; France flat vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs +1.6% vs n/a; Germany +0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.5% vs +1.9% vs n/a; Japan +0.1% vs -0.3% vs flat vs +1.5% vs n/a; Hang Seng -0.2% vs +0.1% vs -0.2% vs +1% vs n/a; Korea -0.5% vs flat vs +0.5% vs +1% vs n/a; India -0.3% vs +0.4% vs flat vs +3.8%!!! vs +1.5% vs +1.5% vs +2.2%!!! vs +1.8%!!!…well above the 200 day m/a! U.S. equity futures in another narrow trading range: DOW +21; SPX +1.20; NDQ +4.75.

Bonds rallied early yesterday morning then punked out and closed little changed. Overnight they are quiet: 10 yr Treasury 2.91% -1/32 (recent range now 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, now 3.84% +5/32. The long TIP is now 1.55% +1/8. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.254% 3 mos, 0.383% 6 mos. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond mixed: Germany 1.99% -1; UK 2.94% +1; France 2.54% -1, Italy 4.55% +2; Spain 4.46% +1; Portugal 7.19% +8; Greece 10.11% +8. Look at some of its recent big moves: 10.05% -19; 10.03% +11; 9.75% +24!; 9.64% -18; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13; 10.02% -16; 10.27% -1; 10.33% -25!; 10.85% +28!; 10.54% +40!!!; 10.85% -37!!!. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%. Japan 0.72% -1.

Gold hammered again yesterday closing at $1330.60.80 -$33.20!!! Session low $1320.40!!! 8/14’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 is next and psychological support, as both the 40 day ($1349) and the 50 day ($1331) have been broken. The 200 day is at $1496. Overnight it is sharply lower again at $1317.50 -$13.10 with a low of $1304.60 – UGLY! Crude also higher at $108.60 +$1.04, four days after setting a rally high and close of $110.70 and $110.53 respectively – Weds. session low $106.39! It remains above the 40/50 day m/a’s (106.75/106.35), both rising. The 200 day ($96.60) is distant support. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the high the spike to $112.24 on 8/28. That move was immediately rejected! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is little changed at $108.00 -.60.

Some random thoughts:

Banks, banks and more banks…Bloomberg stories today about banks shifting assets by ‘selling’ them to get risk assets of the books BUT by swaps…isn’t that a lot like Lehman’s (and other dealers too) Repo 101, that destroyed the company by allowing them to distort reporting to regulators and rating agencies?

Then there is another on how those ‘overtaxed’ corporations are swindling both shareholders and taxpayers by ‘lowering the bar’ on bonuses by counting tax refunds as earnings for bonus purposes.

What in the hell is wrong with this country…conversely: what in the hell isn’t? We have destroyed the best and most reputable market in the world to make a few more billionaires while the rest of America struggles and the middle class continues to shrink!

Have a fun and relaxing weekend!

TB

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