9/6/13…get a job!!!

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “People who say money can’t buy happiness don’t know where to shop.” – Tom Shivers

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “A man should be mourned at his birth, not at his death.” – Charles de Secondat, Baron de Montesquieu…I’m starting to believe that! TB

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Euro Is New Haven Five Years After Lehman Crisis on Emerging-Market Woes

*G-20 Leaders Wrangle Over Stimulus Pullback as Syria Tension Roils Markets

*Yen Strengthens While Treasury Yields Decline as Stocks, Futures Fluctuate

*Bogged-Down Banking Union Fight Leaves Europe Vulnerable to Crisis Release

*Obama Seen Delaying Fed Nomination Until Syria Issue Resolved – GROAN!!!

*Fed’s Evans Wants to See Inflation in U.S. Accelerate Before Tapering Off

*Junk Sales Sprint Toward Record in Refuge From Rate Surge – at these levels???

*Fracking Near $14 Million Homes Builds Case for U.K. Shale Backers

*Obama’s Timing for Syria Action Delayed by Reluctance From U.S. to Allies

*Pentagon Likely to Avoid Fight With Congress on Cost of U.S. Syria Strike

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 169k in August vs consensus 180k. Full-time adds accounted for just 118k! Now look: July was revised DOWN by 58k to a weak 104k and June to 172k from 188k…UGLY!!! Maufacturing +14k vs -16k; Construction 0 vs -3k, Private payrolls rose by 152k while Government ROSE by 17k??? vs -23k but Federal was 0 vs -11k. Education +43k vs +26k Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% – up just 2.2% from a year ago!  

The Unemployment Rate decline to 13.7% from 14%, lowest since August 2008 BUT the PARTICIPATION RATE fell to 63.2% from 63.4% creating the decline along with lost benefits. Note that it is now at the lowest since August 1978 – great news for stocks…right? Meanwhile Household Jobs declined by 115k!?! Part-time hiring fell by 234k.

Market Reaction 9:45am EDT: Bonds initially gave back half of their overnight gains but are back close to where they were prior to yesterday’s plunge….10th straight breakdown for the 10 yr treasury! Stocks opened higher with the Dow up about 35 but are now weaker and it is down 115 and in steep decline. What a mess!

Stocks rose modestly as NYSE volume dropped again to a well-below average 2.9B while Real NYSE volume plunged to 630M shares from an average  (for this lean year anyway) 728M, breaking the string of three straight 700M plus sessions. Best gainer was Dow Transports for a second straight session at +0.6% vs +1.2%, and five straight ‘up’ days, while the rest, sans Dow Utilities (-0.3% and negative for three days!) and the DOW which was FLAT, were up from 0.1% (S&P 500) to 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100, up 0.2% vs +1%, gained 5.4 points by just 1.5:1, a day after posting 8:1, with just FIVE stocks changing by 1 or more index points: GOOG +1.9 vs +2.8; FB +1.3; COST +1.2; APPL -2.9 vs +8.5; and CMCSA -1…it remains a crapshoot at best…play the indices?

What does it mean…still ‘dunno’…and don’t expect clarification from payrolls today!

* Dow 30 FLAT vs +0.7% vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.3%; Dow Transports +0.6% vs +1.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.3%; Russell 2000 +0.3% vs +1.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.3%; Dow Utilities -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3%; S&P 500 +0.1% vs +0.8% vs +0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.3%; Nasdaq Composite +0.3% vs +1% vs +0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.3%; NDQ 100 +0.2% vs +1% vs +0.6% vs +0.7% vs +0.7%.

*NYSE Volume plunged to a well below average 2.9B shares vs 3.3B vs 3.7B (2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume HAD been above 700M for 3 days but also plunged to 630M shares 728M vs 787M vs 768M  (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 719M shares. The range since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, excluding the four sessions above 800M, is 482M-798M shares. The average since 6/28 is just 666M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 31 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose for a 2nd day to 227 vs 158 vs 136. New lows also rose to 87 vs 60 vs 99 – 579-27 is the recent range.  

  1. Advance/Declines were mixed: -1.1x vs +2.5x vs +1.2x vs 1.9x vs 1.2x; (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.5x vs +1.9x vs +1.9x vs +2.5x vs +1.4x (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was positive: +1.8x vs +3.5x vs +2.1x vs +1.8x vs +1.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and +3x vs +3.2x vs +2.1x vs +3x vs +2.1x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 0.4% vs +0.9% vs +1.1%. BofA was 2nd most active again behind Nokia, +0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.9%, closing at $14.37 +.05. It has struggled since hitting $15.03 a month ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers +0.7% vs +1.6%! vs +1.3%!; KBW Banks +0.7% vs +0.7% vs +0.5%; Nasdaq Banks +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.7%.  
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) declined slightly and remains below 16 at 15.77 – .11 vs 15.88 vs last Friday’s 17.01 but a week prior it was at 13.98. The recent range is now 11.83-17.81. It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is above the 40 day (13.95), the 50 day (14.52) and the 50 day (14.59)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks mostly unchanged except Japan and India in opposing directions: UK +0.1% vs +0.6% vs -0.4%; France +0.1% vs  vs +0.6% vs -0.8%; Germany +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.5%; Japan DOWN 1.5%!!! vs +0.1% vs +0.5%; Hang Seng +0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.3%; Korea +0.2% vs +1% flat; India +1.5% vs +2.2%!!! vs +1.8%!!!…back up to the 200 day m/a! U.S. equity futures higher ahead of payrolls in yet another very tight trading range: DOW +36; SPX +5.60; NDQ +10.25.

Bonds were POUNDED yesterday and the 10 year suffered its TENTH breakdown since 5/2…thank you Bernanke but are up o/n cancelling much of the loss…but payrolls are soon to be released: 10 yr Treasury 2.89% +7/8 vs 2.99%! (recent range now 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.88%, now 3.83% +7/8. The long TIP is now 1.57% vs 1.63%!?! The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.256% 3 mos, 0.390% 6 mos, both lower by 2 bp’s! Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields lower ex-Portugal and India: Germany 1.96% -8; UK 2.94% -6; France 2.55% -7, Italy 4.50% -4; Spain 4.52% -8; Portugal 6.96% +10; Greece 10.21% +1. Look at some of its recent big moves: 10.03% +11; 9.75% +24!; 9.64% -18; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13; 10.02% -16; 10.27% -1; 10.33% -25!; 10.85% +28!; 10.54% +40!!!; 10.85% -37!!!. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%. Japan 0.77% flat.

Gold closed very weak two days after a positive key reversal (higher high, lower low, close above the prior day’s high), closing at $1373.00 -$17.00! 8/14’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 is psychological support, and it is well above both the 40 day ($1338) and the 50 day ($1318). The 200 day is at $1505. Overnight it is sharply higher offsetting Thursday’s loss at $1390.10 +$17.10. Crude closed higher offsetting Weds. loss at $108.37 +$1.14 in a second, narrow inside session. It remains above the 40/50 day m/a’s (106.40/105.21), both rising. The 200 day ($96.08) is distant support. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the high the spike to $112.24 on 8/28. That move was immediately rejected! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is $108.98 +.60

Some random thoughts:

Wonderful…Obama is delaying appointing the new Fed Chairman until AFTER the Syrian issue is resolved…maybe he is tacitly ‘re-appointing’ Bernanke. Also, WSJ reports that several senators are opposed to Summers…duh…and DUH!!!

Meanwhile the employment situation deteriorated…unless of course you ignore the miss in August just released, the sharp downward revisions to July and June totaling 78k workers. Ah, but what about unemployment…easy…with the participation rate declining to the lowest since August 1978 what do you expect? Things are not rosy…but don’t tell the stock market…it’s up…inexplicably! Oh and don’t forget the total lack of wage growth…right?

Enjoy your weekend…TB is off again, this time to Duluth for his ship’s reunion (USS Ingersoll DD-652).

TB

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