9/4/13…TLI = too little information

 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The attempt and not the deed confounds us.” – William Shakespeare

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*European Stocks Decline With Commodities While Rupee, Aussie Strengthen

*Trade Gap in U.S. Widens From Almost Four-Year Low Amid Cooling of Exports

*Verizon to Buy Microsoft Buoy M&A Surge to Counter Technological Disruption

*Emerging Nations Sparing $2.9 Trillion of Reserves in Depreciation Assault

*Economic Watershed in Asia as Services Set to Become Largest Share of GDP

*Ford August Light-Vehicle Sales Gain of 12% Tops Estimate of 10% Rise

*Delta Orders 40 Airbus Aircraft Valued at $5.6 Billion List Through 2017

*Verizon Deal Keeps Hope Alive for Record ’13 in Bond Sales – but volatility???

*Bank Weapons of Mass Destruction Remain as Lobbying Forces Gensler Retreat

*Senate Panel Will Vote on Approval for Limited U.S. Strikes Against Syria

*Obama Says He Believes Congress Set to Approve Syria Strike Authorization

Still trying to wade back into the market which remains weak and rudderless. Too many exo-factors like Syria, Egypt, etc. …here’s the book:

* Dow 30 +0.2%; Dow Transports +0.3%; Russell 2000 +0.5%; Dow Utilities -1.1%!; S&P 500 +0.4%; Nasdaq Composite +0.6%; NDQ 100 +0.6%.

*NYSE Volume was a slightly above average 3.7B shares (2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume has been above 700M for two days now at 787M vs 768M shares (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 719M shares. The range since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, excluding the four sessions above 800M, is 482M-798M shares. The average since 6/28 is just 666M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 31 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They have been slipping lately from the 160’s and were 136 yesterday. New lows were 99, slightly elevated – 579-27 is the recent range.  

  1. Advance/Declines were positive: +1.2x; (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.9x (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: +2.1x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and +2.1x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 1.1% due to a sharp gain in Brokers. BofA was 2nd most active, +0.9%, closing at $14.25 +.13. It has been weak since hitting $15.03 a month ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers +1.3%!; KBW Banks +0.5%; Nasdaq Banks +0.7%.  
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) declined to 16.61 – .40 vs Friday’s 17.01 but a week prior it was at 13.98. The recent range is now 11.83-17.81. It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is above the 40 day (13.95), the 50 day (14.52) and the 50 day (14.59)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks weaker ex-Japan: UK -0.4%; France -0.8%; Germany -0.5%; Japan UP 0.5%; Hang Seng -0.3%; Korea flat; India UP 1.8%. U.S. equity futures little changed in yet another very tight trading range: DOW -13; SPX -1.10; NDQ +3.

Bonds were slammed yesterday with the long end off over a point and are little changed overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.86% -1/16 (recent range 2.92% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.92%, now 3.79% +1/8. The long TIP is now 1.52% +1/8. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recenthigh yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.259% 3 mos, 0.392% 6 mos, steady. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields higher for problem countries: Germany 1.94% -1; UK 2.88% -1; France 2.51% +1, Italy 4.39% +5; Spain 4.46% +1; Portugal 6.62% +3; Greece 10.14% +12. Look at some of its recent big moves: 10.03% +11; 9.75% +24!; 9.64% -18; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13; 10.02% -16; 10.27% -1; 10.33% -25!; 10.85% +28!; 10.54% +40!!!; 10.85% -37!!!. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%. Japan 0.77% +1.

Gold closed higher on a key reversal (higher high, lower low, close above the prior day’s high at $1412.00 +$15.90! 8/14’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 is psychological support, and it is well above both the 40 day ($1332) and the 50 day ($1314). The 200 day is getting closer at $1509!!! Overnight it is weaker at $1403.00 -$9.00. Crude also closed higher at $108.54 +.89. It is above the 40/50 day m/a’s (106.26/104.71), both rising. The 200 day ($95.86) is distant support. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the high the spike to $112.24 on 8/28. That move was immediately rejected! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is $107.96 -.59

Some random thoughts:

Too many things going on….no comment! Also jet-lagged!

TB

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