8/26/13…a long, boring week ahead…

TB will be out until next Tuesday…so it will be a boring week in the markets…ahead of the long Labor Day weekend! Ciao!

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Go to heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.” – Mark Twain

This week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the GDP – Q2 2nd Estimate (Thursday), and July Personal Income (Friday).

We will also get July Durable Goods Order and August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Monday), June Case-Shiller Home Price, August Consumer Confidence and August Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Tuesday), August Chicago PMI, and August Consumer Sentiment Final (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Friday was an up day but nobody was there to play…except of course, the high freaks! Still nothing to write home about, right?

Despite that, the VIX dove from 14.56 to 13.98 -.78 and the bottom of the day’s range. Advance/Declines and Breadth were both positive but with new highs still stagnate, but new lows were cut to a weak 56! NYSE Volume nearly unchanged for a FOURTH session at a weak 2.52B shares vs 2.92B vs 2.97B vs 2.88B. Real NYSE Volume dove to an incredibly weak 572M shares from 657M vs 619M vs 670M. Contrast to a week ago Friday’s strong 835M (average since 6/30 is 674M shares!).

…here’s the book:

* Dow 30 +0.3% vs +0.4% vs –0.7% vs -0.1% vs -0.5%; Dow Transports +0.1% vs +2%!!! vs -0.6% vs +0.9% vs -0.7%; Russell 2000 +0.2% vs +1.4%! vs -0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%!!!; Dow Utilities +0.8%! vs +0.7% vs -1.1%! vs +0.6% vs -0.9%; S&P 500 +0.4% vs +0.9% vs -0.6% vs +0.4% vs -0.6% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq Composite +0.5% vs +1.1%? vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.1%; NDQ 100 +0.7% vs +1% vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs -0.1%.

*NYSE Volume slipped lower to a very weak 2.52B shares vs 2.53B shares vs 2.92B vs 2.97B vs 2.88B (2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume did likewise at an extremely weak 572M shares vs 573M shares – lowest since 8/5 vs 657M vs  619M vs 670M (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 716M shares. The range since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, excluding the four sessions above 800M, is 482M-798M shares. The average since 6/28 is just 668M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 31 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and two mixed, but on trades of less than that 95 have been up and 43 down. There have been 33 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They were little changed at 168 vs 159 vs 88 vs 80 vs 72 vs 72. New lows were halved again to 56 vs 103 vs 205 vs 339 vs 579!!! – 27 is the recent low.

  1. Advance/Declines were positive for the third time in seven days: +2.1x vs +5.1x! vs -2.7x vs +3.2x vs -4.3x; (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.2x vs +3.8x!!! vs -2.1x vs +2.8x vs -2.3x (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: +2.2x vs +5.5x vs -3.7x vs +3.1x vs -5.8x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and +2.3x vs +4.9x vs -2.5x vs +4.2x vs -2.6x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 0.5% vs 1.1% vs -0.9% vs  +1.5% vs -1.4%. BofA was most active but unchanged vs 1.5% vs +0.4% vs +1% vs -1.4%!!! vs +0.7% vs -1.3%, closing at $14.57. It has been weak since hitting $15.03 – 22 days ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers +0.4% vs +1.2% vs -0.7% vs +1.4% vs -0.9%; KBW Banks -0.2% vs +1.5% vs -0.7% vs +1% vs -1.3%; Nasdaq Banks -0.4% vs +1.4% vs -0.9% vs +1.4% vs -0.8%.  
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) declined sharply breaking below 14 while the range shifted down to 13.98-14.22 and closed at 13.98 -.78. The recent range is now 11.83-16.56!!! VIX peaked at 20.49, plunged to 18.90 on June options expiry then closed at 20.11 on 6/24 and HAD been down below 14 since! 6/24’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12 (22.72)!!! The range since April ‘12 is 11.05 (multi-year low on 3/14/13) to 21.90. It is above the 40 day (14.00), the 200 day (14.67) and the 50 day (14.81)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks mixed:: UK +0.7% vs +0.5% vs +0.9% vs -0.5% vs -0.6%; France -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.1%! vs flat vs -1.3%!; Germany -0.3% vs +0.1% vs +1.1%! vs -0.1% vs -1%!; Japan -0.2% vs +2.2%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs -2.6%!!!; Hang Seng +0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs -2.2%!!!; Korea +1%! vs +1.1%! vs -1%! vs closed vs -1.6%!; India +0.5% vs +1.1%! vs +2.3%!!! vs -1.9%!!! vs -0.3% vs -1.6%! vs -4%!!!. U.S. equity futures little changed in another very tight trading range: DOW -20; SPX -1.80; NDQ -1.75.

Bonds held their overnight gains and then took off after home sales plunged, giving back a little overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.82% -1/32 (recent range NOW 2.92% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range NOW 2.67% to 3.92%, closed 3.79%, now 3.81% -3/8. The long TIP closed at 1.49% +1-15/16 and is now 1.48 +1/16. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Today’s high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.262% 3 mos, 0.396% 6 mos, steady. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields little changed and mixed: Germany 1.92% -2; UK 2.70% +1; France 2.47% +1, Italy 4.37% +5; Spain 4.47% +3; Portugal 6.42% -1; Greece 9.82% +4 vs 9.78% vs 10.03%!!! vs 9.83% vs 9.75% vs 9.58% vs 9.45% vs 9.46% vs 9.54%. Look at some of its recent big moves: 10.03% +11; 9.75% +24!; 9.64% -18; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13; 10.02% -16; 10.27% -1; 10.33% -25!; 10.85% +28!; 10.54% +40!!!; 10.85% -37!!!. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%. Japan 0.76% -1.

Gold closed very strong with a high of $1399.90 at $1395.80 +$25.00!!! (highest close since 6/6/13) and breaking five more or less parallel trading sessions with a high of $1384.10, highest since 6/18. 8/14’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. $1300 is psychological support, and it is above both the 40 day $1306 and the 50 day $1307. The 200 day is getting closer at $1519!!! Overnight it is $1394 -1.80. Crude also closed higher at $106.42 +$1.39 – Thursday’s low was $103.50. It is back above the 40/50 day m/a’s (105.06/103.33). The 200 day ($95.17) is distant support. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the high of $108.93 on 7/19! The range is $85.61-$109.32 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is $106.36 -.06

 

Some random thoughts:

Will be out until next Wednesday so….have a great week!

TB

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