8/20/13…do no harm…to physicians and Congress!

From The Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A woman drove me to drink and I never had the courtesy to thank her.” – W.C. Fields

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The best way to keep one’s word is not to give it.” – Napoleon Bonaparte – who wudda thunk?

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Slide With Commodities on Fed Tapering Bets as Treasuries Advance – finally!

*Pound Sentiment Shifts as Analysts Raise Forecasts on Outlook for Economy

*Funds Flow Back to World’s Advanced Economies as Markets in Asia Unravel – !!!

*Kyle Bass Said to Bet on J.C. Penney Comeback in Purchase of Secured Loans

*Home Depot Beats Estimates as U.S. Housing Gains Prompt Forecast Increase

*Housing Bubbles Bloom Anew in Desert as Buyers Wager on Vegas – they never learn! – what starts in Vegas spreads to the rest of the country!

*Mailman at 72 With Longest Route Leading Seniors Disrupting American Labor

*Muslim Brotherhood Leader Arrested in Egypt as Uprising Death Toll Mounts

*Weapons for Egypt Under U.S. Review as Americans in Poll Favor Aid Cuttoff – wrong!

Another down day for stocks – and even more so for bonds. Meanwhile stocks are off again overnight on speculation over Fed tampering…er tapering! The biggest loser was the Russell 2000 small cap -1.1%, followed by Dow Utilities -0.9%!. The NYSE Financials subset declined 1.4% – ouch…don’t ignore financials…ever! NYSE Volume shrunk again to a weak 2.88B shares vs 3.14B vs 3.42B. Real NYSE Volume also plunged to a weak 670M shares from a strong 835M vs 716M vs 588M (average since 6/30 is just 674M shares!). Friday was the first 800M share day since July 31 (904M), and on a down session!

The Nasdaq 100 lost 4 points vs 2.3 vs -53 vs -12 but with 3:1 declining. Six members changed by more than one index point:  Apple +4.5 vs 3.5 vs +7.5 vs +18.5!?! vs +10.8!!! vs -5.5 vs -3.3, GOOG +2.2 vs -2.5; INTC +1.7 vs -2.4; FB +1.2; MSFT -2.9 vs -4.2; EBAY -1! Advance/Declines and Breadth were both negative for a THIRD day. New 52 week Highs were steady at a weak 72 vs 72 vs 62 vs 229 while New Lows rose sharply to an even higher 579!!! vs  431 vs 510 vs 312 vs 262 vs 104. The VIX rose again and closed at 15.17 +.80 first time above 15 since July 3!!! It is above the 40/50 day (14.20/14.84) and the 200 day (14.69)…heed!!!

…here’s the book:

* Dow 30 -0.5% vs -0.2% vs -1.5%!!! vs -0.7% vs +0.2%; Dow Transports -0.7% vs +0.6% vs 1.1% vs -1% vs -0.8% vs -0.7%; Russell 2000 -1.1%!!! vs -0.3% vs -1.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; Dow Utilities -0.9% vs -1.1%!!! vs -1.3%!!! vs -0.8% vs -0.5%; S&P 500 -0.6% vs -0.3% vs -1.4% vs -0.5% vs +0.3%; Nasdaq Composite -0.4% vs -0.1% vs -1.7% vs -0.4% vs +0.4%; NDQ 100 -0.1% vs -0.1% vs -1.7% vs -0.4% vs +0.5%.

*NYSE Volume dropped sharply to a weak 2.88B shares vs 3.14B vs 3.42B vs 2.88B vs 3.02B vs 2.78B (2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume plunged to a weak 670M shares vs 835M! vs 716M vs 588M vs 619M (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 717M shares. The range since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, excluding the four sessions above 800M, is 482M-798M shares. The average since 6/28 is just 674M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 31 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and two mixed, but on trades of less than that 93 have been up and 42 down …the down days are beginning to steadily increase! There have been 32 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They were flat at a weak 72 vs 72 vs 62! vs 229 vs 282. New lows soared to an incredibly high 579!!! vs 431 vs 510! vs 313 vs 262 vs 104 – 27 is the recent low.

  1. Advance/Declines were negative for a THIRD session: -4.3x vs -1.9x vs -5.5x!!! vs 2.1x! vs -1.4x (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -2.3x vs -1.2x vs -4.3x!!! vs -1.4x vs 1:1 (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: -5.8x!!! vs -1.9x vs -2.9x vs -1.4x vs -1.3x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and -2.6x vs -1.1x vs -7.7x!!! vs -1.1x vs +1.1x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials imploded plunging another 1.4%! off vs -0.1% vs -1.3%! vs -0.1% vs +0.3%. BofA was most active plunging 1.4%!!! vs +0.7% vs -1.3% vs +0.7% vs +0.7%, closing at $14.16 -.21. It has been weak since hitting $15.03 – 18 days ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.9% vs +0..3% vs -2% vs -0.3% vs +1.2%; KBW Banks -1.3%! vs -0.3% vs -1.2% vs flat vs +0.3%; Nasdaq Banks -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.1% vs -0.2% vs flat.   
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) soared for the fist close above 15 since July 3rd and closed just below the high at 15.17 +.80! with a new range of 14.35-15.20!!! Note the recent low of 11.84, the recent range is now 11.83-15.20 taking out 7/31’s high of 14.14! VIX peaked at 20.49, plunged to 18.90 on June options expiry then closed at 20.11 on 6/24 and HAD been down below 14 since! 6/24’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12 (22.72)!!! The range since April ‘12 is 11.05 (multi-year low on 3/14/13) to 21.90. It is above the 40 day (14.20), the 200 day (14.69) and the 50 day (14.84)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks obliterated overnight, all indices DOWN: UK -0.6% vs -0.5% vs flat vs -1%! vs FLAT; France -1.3%! vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.3%; Germany -1%! vs -0.3% vs -0.4% vs -0.7% vs +0.1%; Japan -2.6%!!! vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs -2.1%!!! vs +1.3% vs +2.6%!!! Hang Seng -2.2%!!! vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs flat vs closed vs +1.2%; Korea -1.6%! vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs closed vs +0.6%; India -0.3% vs -1.6%!!!! vs -4%!!! vs closed vs +0.7% vs +1.5%. U.S. equity markets higher (?) overnight in another narrow trading range: DOW +23; SPX +3.60; NDQ +7.50. Go figure!

Bonds broke down again for the TENTH time since May 2nd when Bernanke mentioned ‘tapering’. The long TIP continues to be the biggest loser! Since the April 5th high (106.94), it has plunged to 77 – a 25% decline!!! Also look at the 30 year treasury: the range last week was 100.44 to 95.44 – a 5% decline – in just FOUR days??? It was off ¾ yesterday and the 10 yr -1/2! All are better (?) overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.83% +7/16 (recent range NOW 2.88% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range NOW 2.67% to 3.90%, currently 3.86% +5/8. The long TIP is 1.59% +1/2 The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Yesterday’s high yield: 1.61%! Libor update: 0.262% 3 mos, 0.395% 6 mos, steady. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields generally lower ex-Greece! Germany 1.86% -3; UK 2.69% -5; France 2.41% -2, Italy 4.28% +1; Spain 4.41% +1; Portugal 6.24% +1; Greece 9.75% +24!!! vs 9.58% vs 9.45% vs 9.46% vs 9.54%. Look at some of its recent big moves: 9.75% +24!; 9.64% -18; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13; 10.02% -16; 10.27% -1; 10.33% -25!; 10.85% +28!; 10.54% +40!!!; 10.85% -37!!!. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%. Japan 0.73% -3.

Gold closed lower finally at $1365.70 -$5.30 with a session high of $1384.10 not only highest since 6/18 but more than eradicating the selloff since then! Last Wednesday’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. $1300 is psychological support, and it is above both the 40 day $1294 and the 50 day $1308. The 200 day is a distant $1525!!! Overnight it is little changed at $1365.80.30 +.10. Crude closed weaker at $107.10 -.36. Support remains at the 40/50 day m/a’s (104.12/102.60), both rising. The 200 day ($94.80) is distant support. Minor sup is $104.21-36 – a triple bottom from 7/10-7/12. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the high of $108.93 on 7/19! The range is $85.61-$109.32 since March 1, 2012. It is lower overnight at $106.34 -.76, with a session low of $105.77.

 

 

Some random thoughts:

The Fed, the only institution that has served us well is in total disarray with vacant seats, retiring board members, and Bernanke who may be down but not out…rumors he may be re-appointed by Obama, who praises him (and rightfully so as neither his administration or Congress did a damned thing since the bailouts). Rightly or wrongly, he did what he felt was necessary and that was to prevent deflation at all costs…rightly so on that! The QE’s have failed us…or have they? Isn’t it more a matter of Congress’s failure to create jobs? …AND greedy CEO’s failing to raise anyone’s income but their own??? Then of course there is their shameless replacement of full-time workers with part-time – and conveniently blaming it on Obamacare. What hypocrisy!

Oh, yes and a GOP-led (sic) House that won’t do a damned thing EXCEPT keep passing bills on partisan lines to banish the Affordable Care Act…while professing to repeal and replace it with something workable. Sorry boys, you have pulled that trick one to many times. Sure there are flaws…serious ones…with the ACA but they could be fixed. Here are a few of TB’s he has already tossed out there:

  1. have Medicare negotiate prices for prescription drugs
  2. crack down even more on drug companies that ‘bribe’ doctors
  3. require doctors to discuss options with patients thus avoiding costly treatments and drugs which could make the situation worse. IF they do this, they should not be liable for misdiagnoses.
  4. BAN, as we did with cigarettes, advertising for prescription drugs as only a truly ‘sick’ person would beg their doctor to give them anything with such serious side effects!

But the real issue here is that the GOP has no alternative plan so rescinding the ACA would keep us as the only major industrialized nation without universal health care and leave us with no guarantees of being able to get…or keep…insurance, and continue to place individuals at risk if they move to another state and have to find a different insurer.

This keeps our ER’s busy with people who have no business being there other than they can’t afford medical treatment and who do you think pays those costs? You do, fool!

Did you ever wonder why malpractice never includes overmedicating or dangerous procedures? 35% of physicians in a recent study said they prescribe drugs and treatments that may not be warranted…and 55% say their colleagues do! Why shouldn’t the patient be included in the decision process…then decide together on the proper course of treatment and have the patient sign off on it. A doctor noted that no one is ever sued for prescribing a dangerous drug that might not be necessary or performing a procedure that is dangerous that costs the life of the patient. Let’s make these joint decisions empowering both the doctor and the patient!

Have a great day…and don’t get bullish on stocks! Not now!

TB

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