8/13/13…the destruction of the middle class?

From The Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I love being a writer. What I can’t stand is the paperwork.” – Peter DeVries

Bloomberg Quotes of the Day: “In the practice of tolerance, one’ enemy is the best teacher.” – Dalai Lama

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Ackman Resigns From J.C. Penny Board as Ullman Gets Support From Soros

*Stocks Rise With Commodities Before U.S. Data as Yen Weakens, Bunds Fall

*Europe Growing Again Triggers Sign of Euro Bloc Stimulating Global Economy – yawn

*Banks Subpoenaed by U.S. Regulator Over Price Impact of Metals Warehousing –good!

*London Whale Helping U.S. With Investigation of Former JPMorgan Colleagues

*Fed Draws Record Foreign Borrowers to U.S. Seeking Loans – gimme a break!

*BlackBerry Cheapest in North America Seen Finally Going Private

*Best-Paid Female Executives in S&P 500 Settle for Less With 18% Gender Gap

*Florida Pharmacists Win $597 Million Blowing Whistle on Drugmakers’ Scam

*Israel’s Move on Settlements Raises Tension Ahead of U.S.-Led Peace Talks –aarrgghh

*Rohani Picks Female Vice President for Iran After Pledge to Support Women – !!!

*Germany’s Social Democrat Candidate Says Merkel Mess Has to Be Cleared Up

A miserable session…not fit for man nor fowl. The Dow closed FLAT, S&P 500 -0.1% Dow Utilities were the goat -0.7%, and NYSE Financials -0.4%. Something has to break the logjam and that could well be Friday’s options expiry.

The Nasdaq 100 gained 7 points by just 54:44: just three members gained more than one point (APPL +10.8!!! vs -5.5 vs -3.3, CSCO +1.4 vs -1; MSFT +1.3 vs -1.4), while only two GOOG/BIIB each lost 1 point. Imagine if Apple hadn’t had a good session???

Advance/Declines and Breadth were both slightly positive but going nowhere. New 52 week Highs slipped to 223 vs 261 vs 293 while New Lows slipped slightly to 104 vs 152 vs 140. The VIX, which finally closed above 13  Friday slipped back to 12.81 -.60.

…here’s the book:

* Dow 30 FLAT vs -0.5% vs +0.2% vs -0.3% vs -0.6%; Dow Transports +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.8% vs -0.7% vs -1.3%; Russell 2000 +0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.1% vs -1%; Dow Utilities -0.7% vs -0.5% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs -0.5%; S&P 500 -0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs -0.6%; Nasdaq Composite +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs -0.7%; NDQ 100 +0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs -0.7%.

*NYSE Volume dipped again to a very weak 2.78B shares vs 2.94B vs 3.25B vs 3B vs 3.1B vs 2.52B (4th weakest of 2013…1.96B is the low). NYSE Volume also declined again to a super weak 586M shares vs 637M vs 686m vs 617M vs 658M vs 533M vs 678M (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 714M shares. The range since 6/28’s 1.75B share day excluding the three sessions above 800M is 482M-798M shares. The average since 6/28 is just 672M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 30 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and one mixed, but on trades of less than that 93 have been up and 39 down …the down days are starting to increase! There have now been 31 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They dipped again to 223 vs 261 vs 293 vs 161 vs 280 vs 450. New lows also declined to 104 vs 152 vs 140 vs 240 vs 280 vs 145 – 27 is the recent low.

  1. Advance/Declines were modestly positive: +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.9x vs -2.2x vs -3x! (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.3x vs -1.5x vs +1.5x vs -2.1x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: +1.1x vs 1:1 vs +2.8x vs -2.2x vs -3.3x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and +1.2x vs -1.2x vs +1.7x vs -1.9x vs -2.5x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials DECLINED and remain anemic -0.4% vs flat vs +0.6x vs0.7% vs -0.8% vs -0.3%. BofA was most active falling 0.3% vs -1.1% vs  +0.6% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%!, closing at $14.41 -.04. It has been weak since hitting $15.03 13 days ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs -1%; KBW Banks -0.3% vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.9% vs -1%; Nasdaq Banks +0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.9%.   
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose above 13 for just one session and declined yesterday to 12.81 -.60? with a range of 12.80-13.57, a slight outside day!!! Note the recent low of 11.84, the recent range is 11.83-13.91 but with 7/31’s high being 14.14!!! VIX peaked at 20.49, plunged to 18.90 on June options expiry then closed at 20.11 on 6/24 and has been down below 14 since! 6/24’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12 (22.72)!!! The range since April ‘12 is 11.05 (multi-year low o n 3/14/13) to 21.90. It is well below the 40/50 day (14.69/15.09) and the 200 day (14.80)!!!…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks higher led by Japan, Asia VERY strong: UK +0.4% vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs -0.4% vs -0.8%; France +0.2% vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.7% vs +0.6%; Germany +0.7% vs -0.4% vs flat vs +1% vs -0.4%; Japan +2.6%!!! vs -0.7% vs +0.1% vs -1.6%! vs -4%!!! vs +1%! vs -1.4%!!! vs +3.3%!!! vs +2.5%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +1.5%! vs -3.3%!!! vs -3%!!! vs -1.1%!;  Hang Seng +1.2% vs +2.1%!!! vs +0.7% vs +0.3% vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%!!!; Korea +1.5%! vs +0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs -1.5%; India +1.5% vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs +0.7% vs -0.4% vs -2.3%. U.S. equity futures slightly higher in the ‘new normal’ narrow trading range: DOW +38; SPX +3.90; NDQ +7.25.

Bonds slumped after three straight ‘up’ sessions and are WEAK again overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.06% -1/4 (recent range 2.74% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range of 2.82% to 3.77%, currently 3.71% -1/2. The long TIP is 1.32% -5/16. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high 1.53%! Libor update: 0.264% 3 mos, 0.396% 6 mos, steady. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields higher with few exceptions: Germany 1.78% +8!!!; UK 2.53% +7!!!; France 2.31% +7!!!, Italy 4.15% -1; Spain 4.44% -3; Portugal 6.42% -4; Greece 9.54% -2 vs vs 9.49% vs 9.59%. Look at some of its recent big moves: 9.64% -18; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13;  10.02% -16; 10.27% -19; 10.33% -25!; 10.85% +28!; 10.54% +40!!!; 10.85% -37!!!. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%.  Japan 0.73% -1.

Gold closed sharply higher well above the critical $1300 at $1334.20 +$22.00, with a high of $1338, highest since 7/22! Last Wednesday’s session low was $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 7/23’s session high was $1349.20 – highest since 6/20! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. $1300 is again psychological support, and it is now above both the 40 day $1291 and the 50 day $1312 – both still falling. The 200 day is a distant $1533!!! Overnight it is weaker at $1326.40 -7.80. Crude closed little changed after Friday’s strong session but following 3 very weak sessions at $106.11 +.14. It remains safely above the 40/50 day m/a’s (103.04/101.67), both rising. The 200 day ($94.37) is distant support. MAJOR SUP, broken Thursday, is $102.61, the 7/30 low. Minor sup is $104.21-36 – a triple bottom from 7/10-7/12. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! It is slightly higher overnight at $106.36 +.25. The high of $108.93 on 7/19! The range is $85.61-$109.32 since March 1, 2012.

 

Some random thoughts:

…take the power from the people! No need…they surrendered it willingly.

A recently released Brookings Institution study showed that poverty increased in both red and blue states. So much for their austerity promises stimulating. Furthermore, while there were small increases in states with Democratic Representatives, GOP districts saw increases in 93% of their district as the new ‘suburban poor’ became a drain. This is just another in a chain of negatives for the party – guess how those people will vote?

Once again, the party is proving itself the protectors of the wealthy ‘investors’ while making life worse for the middle class. What is puzzling though is why do they keep voting for the GOP? Maybe they feel that they too will be rich someday but that is about as likely as winning the lottery.

Meanwhile, the infighting in the Grand ‘OLD’ Party is getting more heated. Now the Tea Party is after its own who became its leaders including presidential hopeful Mario Rubio. Ditto for ‘boring’ Paul Ryan.’ Eric Cantor continues to fight for control but that may be an uphill battle. Instead they love Cruz and Rand Paul…that’s the ticket! Cannibalism is too kind a word for this group of has-beens. Not that TB is impressed by the Dems and Obama is proving to be a disaster in this his ‘legacy’ term. Can’t wait for him to appoint Summers as Fed Chairman…why not? He, like Geithner was complicit in the financial crisis…the ‘committee to save the world’ HAH!!!

Frankly, Scarlett…I don’t give a damn…any more. Don’t fight what you can’t change. Defeatest? Yep, but look at the rest of America! At least, TB put up the fight…can you say the same?

Have a great day!

TB

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