8/8/13…’flea’ market capitalism?

From The Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Christ died for our sins. Dare we make his martyrdom meaningless by not committing them? – Jules Feiffer

Bloomberg Quotes of the Day: “Nothing is a waste of time if you use the experience wisely.” – Auguste Rodin

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Metals Gain With Aussie, Rand on China Trade as European Shares Advance

*Dollar-Bond Share Slumps to Lowest Since 2007 as Morgan Stanley Says SELL

*Pimco Joins BlackRock in Seeking to Stop California City Seizing Mortgages

*Fragile Five Currencies Unraveling as Developing Economies Lose Investors

*Fed Belongs to Everybody After Crisis With Public Insisting It’s Our Money

*Commerzbank Jumps Most in Three Months as Profit Drops Less Than Estimated

*Goldman Sachs Traders Lost Money on Six Days During the Second Quarter

*German Exports Gained in June in Signal Economy Revival Is Gathering Pace

*Apple Turns Tables After IPhone Reprieve Pushing U.S. Samsung Device Ban

*Obama Turns Realpolitik in U.S.-Russia Ties With Snub of Putin Meeting

*Boehner Flexes Fundraising Muscle With Republicans in Bid to Avert Schism – Ha!

*Gibraltar Span Erupts as Rajoy Seeks Popularity Boost Amid Graft Scandal


Admit it…you don’t have a clue! That’s called being honest. Do you want to bet on red, or black? How about 0 or 00??? Got a hunch? Bet a bunch! Borrow and buy? OR don’t buy, wait…you’ll get a better rate (motto of an old bond guy). More bad news on volume as tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps on in its petty pace.

Yesterday was the third straight down day, with volume slipping slightly to 3B shares vs 3.1B vs 2.52B vs 3.13B…the average ytd is around 3.5B but who’s counting? Real NYSE floor trades dipped again to another weak 617M shares vs 658M vs 533M – 2nd lowest of 2013.  The biggest loser was Dow Utilities (and NYSE Financials) -0.7% while the Russell 2000 lost just 0.1% vs -1%.

Both Nasdaq indices gave up 0.4% vs 0.7% with the 100 off just 3.5 points, 2.5:1 declining – 3 members totaling 4 pomts contributed to the loss led (AMZN/GOOG/MALZ), and 3 ADDING 8.4 points (AMZN +4.8/MSFT +3.6). The volatile of late Apple was not a factor after -3.5 points and +5.8!

Advance/Declines and Breadth were WEAK again at -2.2/-2! New 52 week Highs plunged again to 161 vs 280 and New Lows slipped to 240 vs 252! The VIX, which had been in a state of decline rose sharply for a 2nd day to 12.98 while the trading range gapped up slighlty to 12.96-13.91!….there’s a warning sign in there…

…here’s the book:

* Dow 30 -0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.8%; Dow Transports -0.7% vs -1.3% vs -0.8% vs -0.3% vs +3.3%!!!; Russell 2000 -0.1% vs -1% vs +0.3% vs flat vs +1.4%!; Dow Utilities -0.7% vs -0.5% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1%; S&P 500 -0.4% vs -0.6% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.3%. Nasdaq Composite -0.4% vs -0.7% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +1.4%; NDQ 100 -0.3% vs -0.7% vs flat vs +0.6% vs +1.2%.

*NYSE Volume dipped slightly and remains at a well below average 3B shares vs 3.1B vs 2.52B (4th weakest of 2013…1.96B is the low) vs 3.13B vs 3.78B. REAL NYSE Volume also closed lower and very weak: 617M vs 658M vs 533M vs 678M vs 798M (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 714M shares. The average since 6/30 is now 676M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 30 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and one mixed, but on trades of less than that 92 have been up and 38 down …there have been 30 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They plunged again to 161 vs 280 vs 450 vs 458 vs 730. New lows slipped to a still solid 240 vs 280 vs 145 vs 80 vs 108 – 27 is the low.

  1. Advance/Declines were NEGATIVE – again!: -2.2x vs -3x! vs -1.4x vs +1.1x vs +1.6x (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -2.1x vs -2.5x! vs +1.4x vs -1.1x vs +2.6x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: -2.2x vs -3.3x vs -1.2x vs +1.1x vs +3.3x vs +1.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and -1.9x vs -2.5x vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs +3.2x! (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials were lower for the 7th time in 9 sessions by 0.7% vs -0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +1.5%. BofA was most active (volume was equal to the next four combined) declining 0.8% vs -1.1%! vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs +2.4%, closing at $14.53 -.11 after hitting $15.03 10 days ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.4% vs -1% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +2%; KBW Banks -0.9% vs -1% vs -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +1.9%; Nasdaq Banks -0.7% vs -0.9% vs +0.2% vs -0.2% vs +1.8%.   
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose for a second day to 12.98 +.26 from the recent low of 11.84 and more importantly extended the range to 12.96-13.91 with last 7/31’s high being 14.14!!! VIX peaked at 20.49, plunged to 18.90 on June options expiry then closed at 20.11 on 6/24 and has been down below 14 since! 6/24’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12 (22.72)!!! The range since April ‘12 is 11.05 (multi-year low o n 3/14/13) to 21.90. It is well below the 40/50 day (15.03/15.22) and the 200 day (14.85)!!!…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

European stocks up, Asia mixed with Japan tanking yet again: UK -0.4% vs -0.8% vs flat vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; France +0.7% vs +0.6% vs flat vs +0.2% vs +0.1%; Germany +1%! vs -0.4% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +1.2%; Japan -1.6%! vs -4%!!! vs +1%! vs -1.4%!!! vs +3.3%!!! vs +2.5%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +1.5%! vs -3.3%!!! vs -3%!!! vs -1.1%!;  Hang Seng +0.3% vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%!!! vs +0.1% vs +0.5%; Korea +0.3% vs -1.5%!!! vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.1%; India +0.7% vs -0.4% vs -2.3%!!! vs +0.1% vs -0.8%. U.S. equity futures higher but in what has become the norm – another very narrow trading range: DOW +63; SPX +6.50; NDQ +13.75 – almost exact opposite of yesterday.

Bonds had modest gains yesterday and are slightly higher overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.60% +1/16 (recent range 2.74% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range of 2.82% to 3.77%, currently 3.68% +1/8. The long TIP is 1.25% +1/8. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high 1.53%! Libor update: 0.265% 3 mos, 0.395% 6 mos, steady. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields mixed with no discernible pattern: Germany 1.70% +2; UK 2.49% +1; France 2.25% +1, Italy 4.23% -2; Spain 4.53% -2; Portugal 6.46% +4; Greece 9.59% -2. Look at some of the recent big moves: 9.64% -18; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13;  10.02% -16; 10.27% -19; 10.33% -25!; 10.85% +28!; 10.54% +40!!!; 10.85% -37!!!. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%.  Japan 0.74% -1!

Gold closed lower for a 4th session and blasted through the critical $1300 closing at $1285.30 +$2.80 – with a session low of $1271.80 – lowest since 7/17! 7/23’s session high was $1349.20 – highest since 6/20! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. $1300 is again psychological res, and it is now way below the 40 day $1298 and the 50 day $1318 – both still falling. lt is a far cry from the 200 day – $1540!!! Overnight it is slightly better at $1288.40 +$3.10. Crude closed sharply lower again at $104.37 -.97 – following last 7/31’s session low of $102.67. It remains above the 40/50 day m/a’s (102.20/100.58), both rising. The 200 day ($94.00) is distant support. MAJOR SUP is now $102.61, the 7/30 low. Minor sup/res is $104.21 -36 – a triple bottom from 7/10-7/12….it traded below it for five straight sessions before rallying last week. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! It is little changed overnight at $104.19 -.18. The high of $108.93 on 7/19! The range is $85.61-$109.32 since March 1, 2012.

Some random thoughts:

TB is getting tired of seeing the world deteriorate both economically and socially as the Muslim vs Judeo-Christian divide becomes even greater. There is no end in sight and the potential is for something both sides will regret…well at least the latter and the non-radicalized Muslims, but they don’t count as the radicals will try to take us back to the 12th century if they have their say.

At the other end of the spectrum however, remains the greed and decay that has occurred in Western societies. This one pits the wealthiest against not only the bottom tier but increasingly what used to be called ‘the middle class.’ That term is becoming as much a myth as ‘free market capitalism.’ Curse you Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan (or is it Ayn Rand?). Not really ‘curse’ as the idea was not the problem…merely the misuse.

Have a great day…if you can!



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