8/7/13…when are we going to stand on our hind legs???

From The Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Conscience is the inner voice that warns us that someone may be looking.” – H.L. Mencken

Bloomberg Quotes of the Day: “Excellence is not a skill. It is an attitude.” – Ralph Marston

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Carney Acts to Halt Bets on BOE Rate Increase With Pledge on Unemployment

*Stocks Retreat With Commodities as Yen Climbs; Gilts Retreat on BOE Policy

*Morgan Stanley Seeks Repeat of Dollar Success Saying Buy as U.S. Recovers

*BofA Put Toxic Debt in Bonds as Traders Exploited ‘Fat Kid’ Loans, U.S. Says

*Nokia Siemens Networks Said to Consider Cutting 8,500 Jobs as Sales Wane

*Electronic Bond Trading Unsuitable for Credit Market, McKinsey Study Says – DUH!!!

*Yuan Advances to 19-Year High on Central Bank Fixing, Convertibility Bet

*Amazon’s Lobbying Creates Possible Conflicts for Bezos in Post Purchase

*Insurers Get Shot at $3 Trillion in U.S. Pension Funds with Hatch’s Plan

*Finding a Manhattan Apartment for Less Than $3 Million is Harder Than Ever

*Obama Cancels Putin Meeting Amid Tensions Over Snowden’s Asylum in Russia

*U.S. Said to Charge Several Suspects Over 2012 Attack on Benghazi Mission

*Al Qaeda Plot to Capture Oil Port, Target Foreigners Is Thwarted in Yemen

*Security Comes Before Diplomacy for U.S. as Terror Threat Shuts Embassies

 

The market is sick…very sick! The summer doldrums continue to plague us, save for a few high freak traders who dictate…or more accurately whose computers and algorithms dictate…where the market will go on a give day. Yesterday was a second down day, albeit on low, but rising, volume. Last 3 sessions: 3.1B shares vs 2.52B vs 3.13B…the average is around 3.5B but who’s counting? Real NYSE floor trades rose to a still weak 658M shares vs 533M – 2nd lowest of 2013.  The biggest loser was Dow Transports -1.3% vs -0.8%, followed by the Russell 2000 -1% vs +0.3% (the big winner on Monday).

Both Nasdaq indices gave up 0.7% with the 100 falling 21 points, 3:1 declining – 9 members totaling 2/3 of the loss led by the volatile of late Apple at -3.5 points vs +5.8! EBAY was the only one that rose and that by a weak 1 point.

Advance/Declines and Breadth were WEAK at -2.5/-3.3x! New 52 week Highs plunged to 280 while New Lows nearly doubled to 252! The VIX, which had been in a state of decline rose to 12.72 from 11.84, a new low and the trading range broadened to 12.06-12.93….there’s a warning sign in there…

…here’s the book:

* Dow 30 -0.6% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.8% vs -0.1%; Dow Transports -1.3% vs -0.8% vs -0.3% vs +3.3%!!! vs +0.6%; Russell 2000 -1% vs +0.3% vs flat vs +1.4%! vs +0.3%; Dow Utilities -0.5% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1% vs -0.7%; S&P 500 -0.6% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.3% vs flat. Nasdaq Composite -0.7% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +1.4% vs +0.3%; NDQ 100 -0.7% vs flat vs +0.6% vs +1.2% vs +0.2%.

*NYSE Volume rose to a still well below average 3.1B shares vs 2.52B (4th weakest of 2013…1.96B is the low) vs 3.13B vs 3.78B vs 3.81B. REAL NYSE Volume also closed higher but still weak and from the 2nd lowest of 2013: 658M shares vs 533M vs 678M vs 798M vs 904M (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 714M shares. The average since 6/30 is now 678M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 30 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and one mixed, but on trades of less than that 92 have been up and 37 down …there have been 30 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They were plunged to 280 vs 450 vs 458 vs 730 vs 307. New lows however nearly doubled to 280 vs 145 vs 80 vs 108 vs 111 vs 69 – 27 is the low.

  1. Advance/Declines were NEGATIVE: -3x! vs -1.4x vs +1.1x vs +1.6x vs +1.1x (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -2.5x! vs +1.4x vs -1.1x vs +2.6x vs +1.2x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: -3.3x vs -1.2x vs +1.1x vs +3.3x vs +1.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and -2.5x vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs +3.2x! vs +1.1x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials were lower for the 6th time in 8 sessions by -0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +1.5% vs -0.2%. BofA was most active plunging 1.1%! vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs +2.4%, closing at $14.64 -.18 after hitting $15.03 9 days ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -1% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +2% vs +0.5%; KBW Banks -1% vs -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +1.9% vs +0.5%; Nasdaq Banks -0.9% vs +0.2% vs -0.2% vs +1.8% vs +0.1%. GS coming off a new high plunged 2.1% while JPM fell 1.2%…All were down with C losing  2.6% and MS -2%!  
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) ROSE finally to 12.72 +.88 from the recent low of 11.84 and extended the range to 12.06-12.95 with last Tuesday’s high being 14.14!!! VIX peaked at 20.49, plunged to 18.90 on June options expiry then closed at 20.11 on 6/24 and has been down below 14 since! 6/24’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12 (22.72)!!! The range since April ‘12 is 11.05 (multi-year low o n 3/14/13) to 21.90. It is well below the 40/50 day (15.20/15.28) and the 200 day (14.87)!!!…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks WEAK: UK -0.8% vs flat vs -0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.1%; France flat vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs flat vs +0.5%; Germany -0.4% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +1.2%; Japan -4%!!! vs +1%! vs -1.4%!!! vs +3.3%!!! vs +2.5%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +1.5%! vs -3.3%!!! vs -3%!!! vs -1.1%!;  Hang Seng -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%!!! vs +0.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.9%; Korea -1.5%!!! vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.4%; India -0.4% vs -2.3%!!! vs +0.1% vs -0.8% vs -0.2%. U.S. equity futures weaker in what has become the norm – another very narrow trading range: DOW -56; SPX -6.10; NDQ -8.25!!!

Bonds traded weak most of the session but then came back to flat and are up slightly overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.63% +1/16 (recent range 2.74% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range of 2.82% to 3.77%, currently 3.72% +3/16. The long TIP is 1.28% +3/8! The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high 1.53%! Libor update: 0.266% 3 mos, 0.396% 6 mos, steady. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields mixed with no discernible pattern: Germany 1.70% -1; UK 2.53% +6; France 2.26% -1, Italy 4.25% +1; Spain 4.55% -1; Portugal 6.43% +1; Greece 9.62% +5. Look at some of the recent big moves: 9.64% -18!!!; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13;  10.02% -16; 10.27% -19; 10.33% -25; 10.85% +28; 10.54% +40; 10.85% -37. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%.  Japan 0.75% -3!

Gold closed lower for a 4th session and blasted through the critical $1300 closing at $1282.50 -$19.90!!! – with a session low of $1278.10 – lowest since 7/17! 7/23’s session high was $1349.20 – highest since 6/20! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. $1300 is again psychological res, and it is now way below the 40 day $1300 and the 50 day $1320 – both still falling. lt is plunging below, the 200 day – $1543!!! Overnight it is weaker at $1276.40 -$6.10 with a low of  $1271.80!!! Crude closed sharply lower at $105.30 -$1.26 – following last Tuesday’s session low of $102.67. It remains above the 40/50 day m/a’s (101.98/100.40), both rising. The 200 day ($93.93) is distant support. MAJOR SUP is $104.21 -36 – a triple bottom from 7/10-7/12….it traded below it for five straight sessions before rallying last week. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! It is little changed overnight at $105.40 +.10. The high of $108.93 on 7/19! The range is $85.61-$109.32 since March 1, 2012.

Some random thoughts:

…are we going to allow a vocal minority to destroy our government just to make the richest Americans, many in the financial sector who created the crisis, even richer…and what does the economy get for it? NOTHING!!!

No further commentary today other than to say that yesterday was TB’s 44th anniversary – with the same woman, which is more of a tribute to her than to me!

The market’s a mess…our government’s a mess…the WORLD is a mess…and still we continue to let the wealthiest Americans dictate our future. When will the insanity end?

Have a great day…if you can!

TB

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