8/6/13…it’s a great life IF…

From The Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Confession is good for the soul only in the sense that a tweed coat is good.” – Peter De Vries…question: if you were Anthony Weiner would you pronounce it ‘wiener’ or ‘whiner’?…I’m just askin’.

Bloomberg Quotes of the Day: “Life is the art of drawing without an eraser.” – John W. Gardner

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Trade Gap in U.S. Narrows More Than Forecast to $34.2 Billion on Oil Drop – yawn

*German Factory Orders Rise Most in Eight Months in sign of Europe Recovery – ?

*Copper Gains as Euro Rallies on Economic Data While S&P 500 Futures Drop  – pity

*Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos Wagers $250 Million on Reviving Washington Post

*Standard Chartered Net Income Falls 24% on Korea Unit $1 Billion Writedown – ouch!

*Americans With Best Credit in Decades Driving Economy in Renewed Borrowing – ???

*Mugabe to Grab Foreign-Owned Mines, Force Banks to Sell to Black Investora

*Citigroup Ghost Haunts Abu Dhabi as Wealth fund Caught in Batista Meltdown

*McDonald’s Franchisees Rebel as Chain Raises Fees to Boost Reveneue – WOW!!!

 *Pena Nieto Said to Seek Constitutional Changes to Share Mexico Oil Output

*Save Mart Billionaire Piccinini Emerges With Grocery Fortune in California

*Family Offices Chase 12 Million Rich Getting Richer on $46 Trillion Assets

*Americans Told to Leave Yemen Immediately as Threat of Terrorism Escalates – wait, you have to be told…only a moron would stay there…or rest of Middle East!

*Egypt Diplomats Try to Broker Peace While Mansour Demands End to Protests

*Deficit Shrinks 50% to 5.7% of U.S. GDP as Debt-Ceiling No Vote Risks All

 *Breast Cancer Risk May Increase With Long-Term Use of Blood Pressure Drugs

Following a solid rally on Friday on less than average volume (3.13B shares/678M shares), we had a down day with only the Russell 2000 up 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 +0.1%; and the Nasdaq 100 FLAT…thanks only to the largesse of APPL which gained 5.8 index points! The only other gainer of one point or more was Facebook with 1.8 – on the other side of the coin, six stocks lest from 1-1.4 index points and 42 members were up, 57 declined. Dow Transports and Utilities (?) each fell by 0.8% for the loser award. Tried to warn you that there is no momentum here and Friday’s rally on light volume was no exception. Real NYSE floor trades slumped to 533M vs a below average 678M – 2nd lowest of  2013. Bonds were hammered giving back almost all gains from Friday and both Gold and Crude closed lower…Gold trading down to $1296.40 but on a higher high and higher low.

The VIX, however, DECLINED slightly to 11.84 -.14, a new low and the trading range slumped to 11.83-12.43 – a new recent low and for a 2nd day it closed at the low! A/D’s and Breadth were mixed but nothing to see there.

…here’s the book:

* Dow 30 -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.8% vs -0.1% vs flat; Dow Transports DOWN 0.8% vs -0.3% vs +3.3%!!! vs +0.6% vs +0.3%; Russell 2000 +0.3% vs flat vs +1.4%! vs +0.3% vs +0.3%; Dow Utilities -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1% vs -0.7% vs +0.3%; S&P 500 -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.3% vs flat vs flat. Nasdaq Composite +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +1.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.5%; NDQ 100 FLAT vs +0.6% vs +1.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.5%.

*NYSE Volume slumped further to a well below average 2.52B shares (4th weakest of 2013…1.96B is the low). from 3.13B vs an average 3.78B vs 3.81B vs 3.31B. REAL NYSE Volume fell sharply again to the 2nd lowest of 2013: 533M shares vs 678M vs 798M vs 904M vs 678M (482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the low). The 12-month average is 714M shares. The average since 6/30 is now 678M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M. There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 30 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and one mixed, but on trades of less than that 92 have been up and 36 down …there have now been 30 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They were stable at 450 vs 458 vs 730 vs 307 vs 257. New lows however rose to 145 vs 80 vs 108 vs 111 vs 69 – 27 is the low.  

  1. Advance/Declines were mixed: -1.4x vs +1.1x vs +1.6x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.4x vs -1.1x vs +2.6x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was also mixed: -1.2x vs +1.1x vs +3.3x vs +1.2x vs -1.1x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and +1.2x vs +1.6x vs +3.2x! vs +1.1x vs +2.2x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials were slightly lower for only the 5th time in 7 sessions by -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +1.5% vs -0.2% vs -0.3%. BofA was most active slipping 0..3% vs -0.2% vs +2.4%, closing at $14.80 -.04 after hitting $15.03 8 days ago – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +2% vs +0.5% vs -0.1%; KBW Banks -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +1.9% vs +0.5% vs +0.1%; Nasdaq Banks +0.2% vs -0.2% vs +1.8% vs +0.1% vs flat. GS gained 0.4% for a new high while JPM slipped 0.7%…nothing else worthy of reporting.  
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) declined again to 11.84 -.14 with another lower range of 11.83-12.42 with last Tuesday’s high being 14.14!!! VIX peaked at 20.49, plunged to 18.90 on June options expiry then closed at 20.11 on 6/24 and has been down below 14 since! 6/24’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12 (22.72)!!! The range since April ‘12 is 11.05 (multi-year low o n 3/14/13) to 21.9. It is well below the 40/50 day (15.20/15.28) and the 200 day (14.87)!!!…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks mixed – look at Hong Kong, Japan AND India!!!: UK flat vs -0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.7%; France +0.2% vs +0.1% vs flat vs +0.5% vs -0.4%; Germany -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.4%; Japan +1%! vs -1.4%!!! vs +3.3%!!! vs +2.5%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +1.5%! vs -3.3%!!! vs -3%!!! vs -1.1%!;  Hang Seng -1.3%!!! vs +0.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.9% vs -0.3%; Korea -0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.2%; India -2.3%!!! vs+0.1% vs -0.8% vs -0.2% vs flat vs -1.3%. U.S. equity futures slightly weaker in what has become the norm – another very narrow trading range: DOW -21; SPX -1.80; NDQ +1.25.

Bonds gave back some of Friday’s gains  – and are weaker overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.65% -1/8 (recent range 2.74% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range of 2.82% to 3.77%, currently 3.74% -3/16. The long TIP however is 1.32% +1/2! The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high 1.53%! Libor update: 0.266% 3 mos, 0.396% 6 mos, steady. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields little changed and mixed, Spain and Italy lower: Germany 1.70% +1; UK 2.47% +1; France 2.25% +1, Italy 4.22% -6; Spain 4.53% -5; Portugal 6.42% -1; Greece 9.62% +1 vs 9.65% vs 9.69%. Look at some of the recent big moves: 9.64% -18!!!; 9.81% -10; 10.02% +19; 9.95% +17; 9.86% -13;  10.02% -16; 10.27% -19; 10.33% -25; 10.85% +28; 10.54% +40; 10.85% -37. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%.  Japan 0.78% +1.

Gold closed lower for a 3rd session but remains barely above the critical $1300 closing at $1302.40 -$8.10 – with a session low of $1296.70! 7/23’s session high was $1349.20 – highest since 6/20! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, and it remains between the 40 day $1303 and the 50 day $1322 – both still falling. lt is way below, the 200 day – $1545!!! Overnight it is weaker breaking $1300: $1290.00 -$12.40 wotj a ;pw pf $1283.30, near Friday’s low of $1282.40 – lowest since 7/19!!! Crude also closed lower at $106.44 -.50 – following last Tuesday’s session low of $102.67. It remains above the 40/50 day m/a’s (101.67/100.17), both rising. The 200 day ($95.03) is distant support. MAJOR SUP is $104.21 -36 – a triple bottom from 7/10-7/12….it traded below it for five straight sessions before rallying last Weds. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! It is slightly higher overnight at $106.88 +.32 with a session low of $105.97. The high of $108.93 on 7/19! The range is $85.61-$109.32 since March 1, 2012.

Some random thoughts:

The GOP is now devouring its young…leaders that is…like presidential hopefuls…Marco Rubio for one. Maybe it should become the Grand Senile Party?

Following on TB’s rant over Larry Summers see this latest from The Baseline Scenario

Then today there is also a Bloomberg editorial on why this is a critical point in direction for the Fed…although they are indifferent between Yellen and Rubin…and should have named Greenspan as the culprit!

Also an article on how 12 million Americans continue to get richer and hold a combined $46 trillion in assets – you can scratch more than 11 million of those as far as TB is concerned, it is the top group that is a problem…doesn’t leave much for the rest of us, does it??? Meanwhile, jobs lost machines, full timers turning part timers, part-timers holding down two jobs to stay above the poverty level. Is this a great country or what??? We can’t even raise the minimum wage for God’s sake! Oh, and the Tea Party wants to cut the safety net…isn’t a golden parachute a beautiful thing? You betcha, Red Rider!!!

“It’s a great life, if you don’t weaken”, frequently quoted by TB’s first boss in theis business and mentor…especially on street smarts and ethics (you do remember what that is, right?). The source was John Buchan, 1st Baron of Tweedsmuir (you can’t make that up!), who died in 1940 but the quote carries on…Keep calm and carry on???

Have a great day!



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