7/31/13…nothing to see here…

From The Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “It’s not that I’m afraid to die. I just don’t want to be there when it happens.” – Woody Allen

Bloomberg Quotes of the Day: “If you smile when no one else is around, you really mean it.” – Andy Rooney

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Ebbing Financial Market Risk Gives Bernanke Option to Postpone QE Tapering

*German Unemployment Unexpectedly Dropped in July in Sign Economy Advancing

*China Stocks Worst in World Losing $748B with Promises Unfulfilled – like Japan did?

*Economy in U.S. Probably Grew at a Slower Pace as Consumer Spending Cooled –duh!

*Alwaleed Loses Lawsuit Over Commission on a Plane Sold to Qaddafi in 2006 – LOL!

*Following Bernanke Means Using Precedent of Making Unprecedented Policies – !?!

*Banker Leads Double Life as Her Profits Rescue 20,000 From Nepal to Uganda J

*Iran on Track for Weapons-Grade Uranium Processing Next Year, Report Says

*Summers as Fed Chairman Provokes Lots of Questions From Concerned Senators – it should as he was culpable in bringing down Glass-Steagall and profited from it!

*U.K. Market Regulator Arrests Four in West London in Insider-Trading Probe

Five consecutive days that have told us nothing about market direction…nothing! No thing! Both Dow and S&P were FLAT! Both Nasdaq indices rosde by 0.5% for honors while Dow Transports, Russell 2000, and Dow Utilities rose 0.3%. NYSE Financials however slipped by 0.3% – small, but not an insignificant third straight decline!

Gold is holding above $1300 but still trendless, while Crude has slipped hitting a low of $102.67 yesterday in its 7th straight lower low! (TB paid $3.499 this morning!)

Bonds were slightly weaker yesterday and diving yet again on The Q2 GDP Advance 1.7% increase…not to worry…only jobs are part-time…try stimulating on that!

More on the NDQ 100 which continues to confuse and befuddle.– compare to the leaders of the prior five sessions: the 100 slipped by 7 points vs -14.6 vs +20 vs +10 points vs -24 vs +10 vs -33 – BUT with 3:1 DECLINING vs 1.5:1 declining vs 2:1 advancing vs 7:3 declining vs 3:1 declining vs 2:1 advancing  Leaders rotated yet again: there were only FOUR movers of 1 point or more: AMZN -2.4 vs +3.1 vs +1.8; BIIB -1.5 vs -1 ; AAPL +5.7 vs +1.9 vs -1.8 vs +18 vs -6.1 vs +1.1 vs -5.6; FB +2.2. Recent movers but not yesterday MSFT +1.1 vs -4.2 vs +1 vs -1.4 vs +4.6 vs -30!!! vs -3.2; CELG +1.1 vs +1.7.

The VIX trading range shifted higher hitting 14.14 with a session low of 13.36, finally settling in at 13.47 +.08. A/D’s were essentially flat , while Breadth was positive for Nasdaq stocks by 2.2x. New 52 week highs rose slightly while new lows were lower.

…here’s the book:

* Dow 30 FLAT vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs -0.1%; Dow Transports+0.3% vs -1.1%!!! vs +0.5% vs -0.1% vs –1%; Russell 2000 +0.3% vs -0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1% vs -0.1%; Dow Utilities +0.3% vs +0.3% vs 0.6% vs +0.4% vs +0.2%; S&P 500 FLAT vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.2%; Nasdaq Composite +0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.7% vs -0.6%; NDQ 100 +0.5% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.7% vs -0.8%.

*NYSE Volume rose but to a still weak 3.31B shares vs 2.82B vs 2.74B vs 3.31B vs 3.07B vs 2.42B (3rd weakest of 2013…1.96B is the lowest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume also rose to a still very weak 678M shares vs 579M vs 596M vs 677M vs 670M vs 608M (562M is lowest since 7/3). The 12-month average is 716M shares and declining! The average since 6/30 is just 669M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M, 482M being the 2013 low! There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 28 800M+ shares in 2013: 10 up, 17 down, and one mixed, but on trades of less than that 92 have been up and 34 down …there have been 29 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose slightly to 257 vs 209 vs 262 vs 410 vs 569. New lows also slipped to 69 vs 76 vs 87 vs 180 vs 60 – 27 is the low.  

  1. Advance/Declines were slightly positive: +1.1x vs -2.2x vs -1.1x vs +1.3x vs +1.3x (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.1x vs -2.2x vs -1.6x vs +2x vs -1.2x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was mixed: -1.1x vs +2.8x vs -1.1x vs +1.5x vs +1.4x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and +2.2x? vs -1.6x vs -1.4x vs +2.6x vs -1.7x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials declined for a 3rd day by  -0.3% vs -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs flat. BofA was 2nd most active at $14.72 flat after hitting $15.03 four days ago – highest since Jan. 14 and now major res: FLAT vs -1.5%!!! vs -0.7% vs +0.8% vs -1.6%! Brokers -0.1% vs -0.9% vs -0.8% vs +0.7% vs flat; KBW Banks +0.1% vs -0.9% vs -0.7% vs -0.2% vs flat; Nasdaq Banks flat vs -1%! vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.3%.  
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose slightly to 13.47 +.08 with a range of 13.35-14.14!!!  On 7/23 it declined to 12.07, lowest since April 12th! VIX peaked at 20.49, plunged to 18.90 on June options expiry then closed at 20.11 on 6/24 and has been down below 14 since! 6/24’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12 (22.72)!!! The range since April ‘12 is 11.05 (multi-year low o n 3/14/13) to 21.9. It is well below the 40/50 day (15.65/15.34) and the 200 day (14.95)!!!…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks weaker except UK: UK UP 0.7%? vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.8%; France -0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.8%; Germany -0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.5% vs -0.9%; Japan -1.5%! vs +1.5%! vs -3.3%!!! vs -3%!!! vs -1.1%!;  Hang Seng -0.3% vs +0.5% vs -0.5% vs +0.3% vs -0.3%; Korea -0.2% vs +0.9% vs -0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.1%; India FLAT vs -1.3%!!! vs -0.8% vs -0.3% vs -1.4% vs -1%. U.S. equity futures little changed in another tight trading range: DOW -10; SPX +0.50; NDQ +2.50…boring!

Bonds closed slightly weaker and are little changed overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.62% -1/16 (recent range 2.74% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range of 2.82% to 3.71%, currently 3.68% +1/16. The long TIP is 1.37% +1/16. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high 1.53%! Libor update: 0.266% 3 mos, 0.397% 6 mos. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields little changed ex-Portugal: Germany 1.67% -1; UK 2.32% +1; France 2.24% -2, Italy 4.40% +1; Spain 4.64% -1; Portugal 6.17% -9!; Greece 9.80% -1 vs 9.79% vs 9.81% vs 9.81% -10 vs 9.91% vs 10.02% +19 vs 9.81% vs 9.95% +17 vs 9.86% vs -13 vs 9.93% vs 10.07% vs 10.02% -16!!! vs 10.27% -19!!! vs 10.33% -25!!! vs 10.69% vs 10.85% +28!!! vs 10.52% vs 10.54% +40!!! vs 10.85% -37!!! vs 11.22%. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%.  Japan 0.79% flat.

 Gold closed slightly lower as it see-saws but remains well above the critical $1300 closing at $1324.80 -$4.80. Last Tuesday’s session high was $1349.20 – highest since 6/20! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, and it remains between the 40 day $1312 and the 50 day $1328 – both still falling. lt is way below, the 200 day – $1554!!! Overnight it is slightly higher at $132280.70 +$3.90. Crude closed weak at $103.08 -$1.47 – with a session low of $102.67 – its 7th straight lower low!!! It remains above the 40/50 day m/a’s (100.52/99.27), both starting to rise. The 200 day ($93.57) is distant support. First RES is now $104.21 -36 – a triple bottom from 7/10-7/12….it has now traded below it for five straight sessions. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! It is slightly higher overnight at $103.27 +.19. The range is $85.61-$109.32 since March 1, 2012.

Some random thoughts:

Due to lateness today caused by a Rotary meeting and length of yesterday’s missive, will discuss CEO compensation and minimum wage tomorrow.

Have a wonderful day!

TB

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