7/3/13…the morning of the day before…

From The Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “It sure would be nice if we got a a day off for the president’s birthday, like they do for the queen. Of course, then we would have a lot of people voting for a candidate born on July third or December twenty-sixth (as TB was), just for the long weekends.” – unattributed. Might be worth a try, no?…considering!  

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “A man who is a master of patience is master of everything else. – George Saville

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Drop as Portugal Bond Yield Jumps to 2013 High While Oil Tops $100 – !!!

*U.K. Services Growth Quickens in June to Fastest in Two Years on Recovery

*Gross Caught in TIPS Trap Gundlach Sidestepped as Fed Sent Bonds Tumbling

*Austerity Fatigue Grips Portugal as Exit of Ministers Fragments Coalition – Tea Party?

*Michael Dell Said to Face Mounting Odds Over Planned $24.4 Billion Bailout

*European Parliament Backs Plan to Raise Price of Permits to Produce Carbon – yes!

*Egypt Stocks Fall While Pound Forwards Slide Amid Mursi Standoff With Army

*Eurobonds Beating Treasuries Even With First Loss Since 1994 – !!!

*Egypt Crisis Deepens as Mursi Vows to Stay With Military’s Deadline Nears

*Obama Delays Health-Law Employer  Mandate a Year After Business Complaints

*Snowden Finding Doors From Switzerland to India Closed to Asylum Requests  

*Turkish Peace With Kurds in Jeopardy as Erdogan Reels From Protest Fallout

 

While all indices were down (except Dow Utilities and NDQ 100, +0.1%), TB is labeling it a mixed session. Dow Transports were worst performer -0.5% and the rest barely budged…but that doesn’t tell the story! It was up on the open then became ‘tentative’ and then fell the rest of the session with the Dow closing -43 with a 79 point range AND once again on LOW volume. The VIX turned around slightly closing at 16.44, still high. A/D’s and Breadth were slightly negative while new 52 week highs declined from a selloff high of 423 while new lows rose but to a still weak 61 from 33! Gold couldn’t hold and fter putting in a high of $1267 closed off $12.30 – not out of the woods yet (but Portugal situation overnight is helping some. Long treasuries were more or less idle but the 30 yr is down sharply from its 22 month high of 3.63%!!! The low yield was 2.45% on 7/25/12.

As indicated above, NYSE Volume was a weak 3.25B shares vs 3.08B vs 4.4B Friday, highest since 6/24’s 4.7B shares while floor-trades shares barely moved to a near average 717 vs 714M shares (lowest since 6/18) vs 1.75B shares. Since June 20th the average volume has been a whopping 1B shares with a low of 714M – 12-month average is 722M shares!

We remain in a tech wreck. The Nasdaq 100 rose just 2 points (up just +0.1%) by 1.5:1 led by AAPL with another 7.5 vs +10.6!!! Two losers led by MSFT -2.9 subtracted 4.2 points…another weak session!

…here you go:

* Dow 30 -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.8% vs +0.8% vs +1%; Dow Transports -0.5% vs +1.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.8% vs +0.8%; Russell 2000 flat vs +1.3% vs -0.3% vs +1.1% vs +0.3% vs +1.1%!; Dow Utilities +0.1% vs -1.3% vs +0.6% vs -1.3%!!! vs +1.4%!!!; S&P 500 -0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.6% vs +1%; Nasdaq Composite flat vs +0.9% vs flat vs +0.8% vs +0.9%; NDQ 100 +0.1% vs +0.6% vs +0.1% vs +0.5% vs +1%.

*NYSE Volume rose slightly to a still WEAK 3.25B shares from 3.08B vs 4.4B vs 3.31B vs 3.54B (2.91B is the 2nd lowest of 2013, 2.75B is the 2013 low). REAL NYSE Volume was little changed at a slightly below average 717M vs 714M shares (lowest since 6/20)  from a strong 1.75B vs 738M vs794M (595M is lowest since 5/24). Since 6/20 the average slipped to a still strong 1B shares. The 12-month average is 722M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 2.01B eclipsing the 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry. There have now been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 25 800M+ shares in 2013 – 8 up, 17 down, but on trades of less than that 85 have been up and 31 down…there have been 23 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They fell back to 305 vs 423 vs 251 vs 234 vs 165. New lows were doubled but to a weak 61 vs 33 (a new recent low!) vs 87 vs 92

  1. Advance/Declines were negative for the first time in five sessions: -1.6x vs +2.5x vs +1.1x vs +4.3x (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -1.1x vs +2.4x vs +1.1x vs +3.5x! (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: -1.6x vs +2.3x vs -1.3x vs +2.8x vs +6.6x!(recent -18.6x!!! to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and -1.2x vs +2.1x vs -1.1x vs +2.7x vs +2.6x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials slipped by 0.2% vs +0.7% vs -0.5% vs +1.1% vs +0.9%; Brokers -0.2% vs +1.7% vs -0.7% vs +0.9% vs +0.4%; KBW Banks +0.6% vs +0.9% vs -0.1% vs +0.9% vs +1.1%; Nasdaq Banks +0.7% vs +1.7% vs +0.2% vs +1.7%! vs -0.4%. BofA most active: -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.7% vs +3%!!! vs -3.1%!!! remains BELOW $13 at $12.90 -.03. It is now down 2.8% since 6/18.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose slightly after falling for three straight sessions but remains elevated at 16.44 +.07 with a range of 15.98-16.93. 6/25’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12!!! The range since 4/12 is 11.99 (multi year low) to 21.92, way the 40/50 day (15.44/15.09) and the 200 day (15.04)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24) – 12 mo. ave 15.35!

Global equities weak: UK -1.7%! vs -0.5% vs +1.5%; France -1.8%! vs -0.7% vs +1.1%; Germany -1.7%! vs -1.2%!!! vs +0.5%; Japan -0.3% vs +1.8%!!! vs +1.3%; Hang Seng -2.5%!!! vs -0.7% vs +1.8%; Korea -1.6%! vs flat vs -0.4%; India -1.5% vs -0.6%. U.S. stocks weaker at lower end of session range: DOW -72; SPX -8.40; NDQ -15.75.

Bonds were about unchanged yesterday but are up overnight on Portugal issues. 10 yr Treasury 2.44% +1/4 (recent range 2.62% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range is 3.60%!!! to 2.82%, currently 3.44% +1/2. The long TIP is recovering and is now 1.22% +5/8 – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. Recent high 1.53%! Libor update: 0.274% 3 mos, 0.415% 6 mos, still close to the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields very mixed with BRICs being slammed, led by Portugal: Germany 1.65% -6; UK 2.35% -2; France 2.35% -2, Italy 4.55% +11!!!; Spain 4.78% +17!!!; Portugal 7.67% vs 6.38% +115!!!; Greece 11.12% +36 vs 10.762%. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%.   

Gold couldn’t hold the two day ‘rally’ but at least it is off the lows but is gaining slightly overnight in wake of Portugal debacle. It closed at $1243.40 -$12.30 with a session high of $1267 – contrast to Friday’s intraday low of $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. First res is $1348.30, the 6/19 low! Major res is the 40 day/50 day: $1362-1381…both still plunging, and the 200 day – $1596!!! Slightly better overnight at $1248.80 +$6.60 – o/n high is $1251 vs $1267.Crude closed sharply higher for a second straight session at $99.60 +$1.61 following a ‘key reversal’ with a session high of $99.87, not seen since 2/1/13!. The range since May is $91.26 – $99.87 (highest since 9/17/12)! It is well above the 40/50 day m/a’s (95.66/95.30), while the 200 day ($92.31), remains as support. Overnight it is $101.33 +$1.73 with a session high of $102.18 – short covering will do that!!! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is NOW $85.61-$102.18 since June 29, 2012.

Some random thoughts:

The global situation is a mess….the financial markets are…and there is only one way to say this: manipulated…out of control. As the owner of  Seabiscuit said, “the horse is to small, the jockey too big, and I’m too dumb to know the difference.” Sounds about right for being an investor! Hopefully more on this Friday.

Republishing returns in case you didn’t see them yesterday:

INDEX

June

2nd Qtr.

YTD

12 mos.

3/31/2008

Dow Industrials

-1.4%

2.3%

13.8%

18.9%

6.8%

Dow Transports

-1.9%

0.2%

16.3%

20.4%

6.9%

Dow Utilities

0.8%

-4.3%

7.2%

5.2%

4.6%

S&P 500

-1.5%

2.8%

12.6%

20.6%

6.1%

Nasdaq Composite

-1.5%

5.1%

12.7%

17.8%

9.2%

Nasdaq 100

-2.4%

4.0%

9.4%

13.1%

10.9%

Russell 2000

-0.7%

4.1%

15.1%

24.2%

8.4%

NYSE Financials

-2.3%

3.7%

10.6%

30.3%

-8.3%

Gold ETF – GLD

-11.1%

-22.9%

-26.5%

-23.2%

5.4%

1-2yr Tsy ETF-SHY

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.2%

0.2%

1.5%

30 yr Tsy Bond

-3.1%

-2.9%

-5.9%

-10.5%

6.4%

TIP ETF – TIP

-3.8%

-7.1%

-7.2%

-5.0%

4.0%

 

A short session in bonds today and stock traders will be streaming out this afternoon.

Have a happy, safe and sane Fourth! Avoid a Fifth!

TB

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: