6/19/13…awaiting Big Ben’s announcement

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “One and one is two, and two and two are four, and five will get you ten if you know how to work it.” – Mae West, and…

“A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.” – Louis B. Mayer

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I don’t fear computers. I fear the lack of them.” – Isaac Asimov…unless part of a government surveillance program, right?

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Trading Desks at Wall Street’s Top Banks Seen Defying Second-Quarter Curse

*Yen Gains With Oil While European Stocks Fluctuate Before Fed’s Decision

*Bankers Face Decade Bonus Delay as U.K. Urged to Criminalize Recklessness –good!!!

*Moore to Tudor Said to Stick With Japan Bet After Best Start Since ‘09

*U.S. Readies for Peace Talks With Taliban as Karzai Protests Americans Role – get out!

*Obama Says U.S. Surveillance of Phones, Internet Strike Balance on Privacy – NOT!!!

*Obama in Berlin Shows Merkel Chancellorship Forged by Stand in Euro Crisis  

Funny thing, call it a temporizing bid but for no good reason with the FOMC announcement tomorrow but stocks rallied with the Dow closing +138 for its highest close since May 30th…must be a few people out there who feel lucky…well do ya, punk? Not me ahead of the Fed!

Since May 30th, the S&P VIX has closed between 15.14 and 18.59 with a range of 14.36 to 18.60 – the 40/50/200 day m/a’s are 14.37/14.26/14.98…it remains elevated! It closed back above 17 on Friday then declined for the last two sessions ending at 16.63. New 52 week highs surged yet again to 345 vs 264 vs 170 vs 159 vs 140 but so did new lows rising to 104 vs 62 vs 72 vs 459 vs 507 vs 363. The market is unable to get back to the record highs of late May…but using the 40/50 day m/a’s as a platform. Advance/Declines and Breadth were both modestly positive. Volume was steady after barely rising from one of the lowest levels of the year on the NYSE and actual floor trades slipped to 646M vs 679M vs 634M vs 756M, ranging from 595M-756M last week with an average of just 673M shares: compare to the prior week’s 792M-880M with an average of 787M vs the 12 month’s 720M. Just 8 more trading days until quarter end…what’s a mother to do???

The Russell 200 Small Cap was best performer followed by Dow Transports +1%. The rest were up 0.6-0.9%. Our Nasdaq 100 watch continues: it rose by 25 points with just FIVE members gaining more than 1 index point and none of the losers as much.85:15 advancing! It was led by MSFT +4.1!!! vs -2.3 vs -2 vs -4.5 vs -1.4, AAPL -4.8!!! vs +3.1 vs -1; CSCO +2.8 vs -1.1; GOOG +3.3 vs +2.6; INTC/AMGN +1.6; AMZN +1.4 vs +1.6; GILD +1.2 vs -1.6. AAPL was the biggest loser but not even one index point!

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 +0.9% vs +0.7% vs 0.7%vs +1.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%!; Dow Transports +1% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs +1.9%! vs -0.7% vs -1% vs -0.3% vs +2.4%; Russell 2000 +1.2%! vs +0.7% vs -0.8% vs +1.8%! vs -0.9% vs -1.1%; Dow Utilities +0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +1.5%! vs -0.9%!; S&P 500 +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.5% vs -0.8% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.3%; Nasdaq Composite +0.9% vs +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1.1%; NDQ 100 +0.8% vs +0.9% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1%.

*NYSE Volume was steady at 3.1B shares vs 3.08B shares from a very weak  2.91B shares (2nd lowest of 2013, 2.75B is the 2013 low), vs 3.41B vs 3.21B vs 3.41B. REAL NYSE Volume rose slipped and remains average at 646M shares vs 679M vs 634M vs 756M vs 692M vs 689M vs 595M (lowest since 5/24). The 12-month average is just 720M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 82 have been up and 30 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They rose to 345 vs 264 vs 170 vs 159 vs 140 vs 141 vs 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! New lows nearly doubled after declining  to 104 vs 62 vs 72 vs 459 vs 507!!! (recent high). Recent range 49-507.

  1. Advance/Declines were positive: +2.1x vs +2x vs -1.2x vs +5.6x! vs -4.2x! vs -6.4x! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +2.3x vs +1.8x vs -2.5x vs +3.2x! vs -2.3x vs -2.8x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was even better: +3.8x! vs +2.6x vs -1.9x vs +6.9x!!! vs -3.8x vs -4.4x! (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +3.1x! vs +2.6x vs -2.3x vs +3.9x! vs -3.2x vs -3.6x! (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 0.7% vs +0.9% vs 1.2% vs +2% vs -1% vs -1.6%!; Brokers +1% vs +2% vs -1.8% vs +2.2%! vs -0.8% vs -1.6%; KBW Banks +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -1.6% vs +1.4% vs -1.1% vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +1% vs +0.5% vs -1.3% vs +1.3% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%. BofA has been number one or two most active since the crisis…today it fell to 5th but still rose by +.7% vs +1.1% vs -1.1% vs -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -1% vs -1.4%….closed at $13.30 +.09 and has a double bottom at $12.97 which is now critical support! GE +2.6% vs +1.1%. No other financial movers – the sector remains near their rally highs but very volatile.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) is hovering just below 17 and closed at 16.63 -.17 with a narrow range of 16.46-16.95 – an inside session! The high was 5/12 at 18.60, not seen since 2/25. The range since 4/12 is now 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.60, and it remains above the 40/50 day (14.25/14.10) and the 200 day (14.96)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

European equities weak, Asia mixed ahead of Fed announcement; UK -0.6% vs +0.8% vs +0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.7%!; France -0.6% vs -0.2% vs +1.5%! vs +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -2%!!!; Germany -0.2% vs flat vs +1.3% vs +0.5% vs -1.4%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.7% vs +1.2%; Japan +1.8%!!! vs -0.2% vs +2.7%!!! vs +1.9% vs -6.4%!!! vs -0.2% vs -1.5% vs +4.9%!; Hang Seng -1.1%! vs flat vs +1.2% vs +0.4% vs -2.2%!!! vs closed vs -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs -1.1%! vs -1%; Korea -0.7% vs + 0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -1.4%; India +0.1% vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.9%! vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.5%! U.S. stock futures little changed overnight in narrow trading range ahead of Fed: DOW -6; SPX flat; NDQ +5.

Surprisingly bonds closed slightly better and are up again overnight ahead of the Fed announcement, but remain weak – long TIPS continue to rally but from very high yields: 10 yr Treasury 2.18% +1/16 (recent range 2.25% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.37%!!! to 2.82%, now 3.32% +5/16. The long TIP remains well above 1%! Currently 1.13% +7/16 – it has lost more than TWENTY points since May 2nd! – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5, 12 mo. ave 0.65%!. Since the Bernanke announcement on May 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.22%! Libor update: 0.272% 3 mos., 0.409% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed: Germany 1.54% -3; UK 2.12% -2; France 2.10% -2, Italy 4.29% +1; Spain 4.52% -2; Portugal 6.01% +1; Greece 9.84% +4 vs 9.80% vs 9.77% vs 9.86% vs 10% vs 9.94% vs 10.27%!!! Recent range: 7.94% to 12.57%.   

Gold closed weaker for a third day with a low of $1360.20 – lowest since 5/22 – at $1366.90 -$16.90!- also lowest close since 5/22! It has closed above $1400 just once in the past 11 sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 17 of the last 28 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1414-1423 – slipping again. Overnight it is a tad higher at $1367.60 +.70. Crude closed a little higher at $98.44 +.67) two days after a strong finish, +$1.01 with an intraday high of $99.01 – highest high and close since 9/17/12! It remains well above the 40/50 day …12 days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains well above the 200 day ($92.31) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support. First support at the 40/50 day (94.75-93.84 – now crossed and rising!). Overnight it is $98.52 +.08.  4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

Not going to even bother saying anything today…not with the Fed announcement forthcoming. If you want to see anything of import see Tuesdays column…otherwise TB is burned out…for now.

Cheers!

TB

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