5/29/13…does money equal happiness?

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “People who say money can’t buy happiness just don’t know where to shop.” – Tom Shivers  

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.” – Winston Churchill

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks in Europe Fall With U.S. Futures as Commodities, Treasuries Decline

*Cook Says Apple Working on Game-Changer Products as Pressure on CEO Rises

*China Credit-Bubble Call Pits Fitch’s Chu Against S&P on Sovereign Rating

*Lenders Evading U.S. Regulations Pivot From Payday Loans to Installments – sick!

*Fed’s 100-Year Roots Grew From Senator Glass Who lived Bernanke’s Crisis

*Biden Circles Xi in Latin American Trips as U.S. Duels China for Influence

*Joe Bogus Account Said to Show Liberty Reserve Designed to Hide Transfers

*Syrian Rebels Say Exiled Leadership Fails to Represent Anti-Assad Forces  

A gotcha day…for bonds that is! Ouch! Nearly a 1-1/2 point loss in the 10 year treasury, 2-3/4 on the 30 year, while the 30 year TIP lost nearly THREE points! Worse, all of these broke thru the prior support levels and that cannot be a good thing! Meanwhile, stocks continued to rally…except Transports which were flat and Dow Utilities which lost another 1.4%!!! Standout was the Russell 2000 small cap up 1.3%. What a trip! Since peaking on April 30th Utilities have fallen 8-1/2%!!! They are now at the lowest level since March 18th! Anything that produces ‘income’ is poison: at least for now.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 +0.7% vs +0.1% vs –0.1% vs –0.5% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.8%; Dow Transports FLAT vs -0.5% vs +0.2% vs -1.6%!!! vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +1.3%; Russell 2000 +1.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs -1.7%!!! vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +1.1%; Dow Utilities -1.4%!!! vs -1.1%!!! vs -0.6%! vs -1.6%!!! vs +0.2% vs -0.6%; S&P 500 +0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +1%; Nasdaq Composite +0.9% vs FLAT vs -0.1% vs -1.1%!!! vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +1%; NDQ 100 +0.7% vs FLAT vs -0.3% vs -0.9%!!! vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +1%.

*NYSE Volume rose to an average 3.43B shares from a weak 2.75B (2013 low) vs 3.27B vs 4.32B vs 3.49B vs 3.27B,  REAL NYSE Volume also rose to 734M shares vs 587M vs 683M vs 855M vs 685M vs 683M vs 848M (highest since 4/30), vs 594M. Recent highs were 975M (selloff) to 887M (rally). The average last week was another weak 728M shares vs 726M vs 720M vs 687M vs 859M vs 689M!!! The 12-month average is just 722M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. Note that 3/15’s (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 17 800M+ shares in 2013 – just 5 up, 12 down, but on trades of less than that 77 have been up and just 24 down…there have been 21 mixed sessions.

*new 52 week highs have ranged from 100-864. They reversed Friday’s plunge to 517 vs 138!!! vs 811 vs  763 vs 649 vs 811 vs 726. New lows also rose to 79 vs 49 vs 63 vs 41 vs 31 vs 63 vs 67 (recent range 29-237).

  1. Advance/Declines were positive: +1.4x vs -1.2% vs -1.4x vs -3.5x! vs +1.2x vs +1.3x vs +2.6x (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +2.4x vs +1.1% vs +1.1x vs -2.9x! vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! vs +1.1x  (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: +1.8x vs -1.5x vs -1.5x vs +1.6x vs -3.2x! vs +1.1x vs +1.6x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +2.5x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! vs +1.6x vs +1.2x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose 0.7% vs -0.3% vs -1% vs +1.2% vs +0.1% vs +1.3% vs -0.8%. BofA was +0.8% vs flat vs -0.8% vs -1% to $13.35 +.11…12th day above $13 since 4/11/11 – all this month!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) ROSE despite the rally to 14.48 +.49 (7th day above 13 since May 2).. Recent high is15.11 intraday The range since 4/12 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.20, and it is back above the 40/50 day (13.37/13.61) with res at the 200 day (15.05)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

European equities weak and giving back most of Tuesdays gains, Asia mixed: UK -1.6% vs +1.8% vs -0.5% vs -1.7%! vs +0.2%; France -1.3% vs +1.5%! vs +0.2% vs -2.4%!!! vs-0.3%; Germany -1.5%!!! vs +1.2% vs -0.5% vs -2.5% vs -0.1%; Japan +0.1% vs +1.2% vs +0.9% vs -7.3%!!! vs +1.6%! vs +0.1% vs +1.5% vs +2.3%; Hang Seng -1.6%!!! vs +1.1%! vs -0.2% vs -2.5%!!! vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +1.8%; Korea +0.8% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -1.2%! vs +0.6%; India -0.1% vs +0.7% vs +0.2% vs -1.9%! vs -0.3% vs -0.6%. U.S. stock futures weaker in a normal trading range: DOW -64; SPX -6.70; NDQ -8. Stock market opening weaker with Dow off 75+.

Bonds not only were slammed but broke below recent trading range which was support…not good as those have lasted for months! Modestly higher overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.16% +1/32 (recent range now 2.17% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.33% to 2.82%!!!, now 3.28% +3/4. The long TIP is 0.87% +3/4 – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. It too hit a new high yield of 0.90% eclipsing the 0.82% set on 5/22! Libor update: 0.276% 3 mos., 0.416%!!! 6 mos. Foreign bond yields all higher, especially BRICS but still strong: Germany 1.53% +3; UK 1.99% +4; France 2.04% +4, Italy 4.15% +12; Spain 4.36% +9; Portugal 5.42% +8; Greece 8.62% +18 vs 8.39% vs 8.63% vs 8.54% vs 7.98% vs 7.97% vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% (recent range now 7.94%-12.57%). Japan 0.90% +8!!!  

Gold closed modestly lower on a negative key reversal following two straight ‘inside’ days which followed an ‘outside’ session that had an intraday high of $1413.10! It has been down 10 of the last 12 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18, at $1387.50 -$5.30. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains way above at the 40 day/50 day: $1452-1483 – falling rapidly now! Overnight it is $1384.90 +$5.20. Crude closed higher at $95.01 +.86 with an intraday high of $95.92 – highest since 5/22. Thursday’s intraday low of $92.21 was below the 200 day, a second test! The rally high was set 14 days at $97.17, nearing a 12 month high! It remains well above Sup/Res at the 40 day ($93.39), 50 day ($93.65) and 200 day ($92.31). Overnight it is lower at $94.73 -.28. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

 

Some random thoughts:

…you already know them and they aren’t pretty…or nice! Our government has been corrupted by money…and I guess our Congress thinks that can buy happiness…and fame…and fortune!

Have a great day!

TB

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