5/24/13…a third weak session???

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Women like silent men. They think they are listening.” Marcel Aghard

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will.” Frederick Douglass – when will we, the people, start demanding?

*Orders for U.S. Durable Goods in April Rose More Than Economists Estimated

*European Stocks Fall With U.S. Futures After Rebound in Japan; Po; Drops

*Wal-Mart Plasters Shelves With Green Dots in Effort to Keep Shelves Stocked

*German Business Confidence Rises Unexpectedly in First Gain Since February

*Dealers Absorb Junk as Prices Fall Amid ETF Demand Decline – not just junk!

*Bridge Collapse in Washington State Sends Cars Plunging Into Skagit River

*Kerry Says Israel Is Able to Revive Talks by Taking Action on Settlements

*Christie’s Jersey Shore Recovery Bypasses Marinas Struggling After Sandy

 

An incredible whipsaw the ended in a violent ‘key reversal’ (higher high, lower low, close BELOW the prior day’s low!). The day started out STRONG with the Dow climbing 154 points for a strong new record high…THEN, ten minutes before the release of the FOMC statement a sharp downtick…culminating in the Dow falling 122 points (-0.5%) – that is a 276 point swing in one session!!! That is 9 points more than the April 15th selloff – but that one was a continuous drop while this had a modest loss of 80 points – but once again the selloff was on HIGH volume…beware of a lack of liquidity caused by nervous high freak traders! Ditto for the S&P 500 which lost 13 points on a 30 point swing. The Composite wiped out SIX days of gains, the 100 had a 69 point range and lost 27 – going back over a year there were three 60+ swings but this was the largest! since Worst, however were Dow Transports which lost 103 points (1.6%!) in a 270 point swing   the Russell 2000 small cap lost 16 points in a 31 point range (it is the best barometer of the economy and had been very strong. Advance/Declines and Breadth were both very weak! Volume rose to a high 4.32B shares vs 3.49B vs 3.27B vs 3.44B, while ‘real’ trades on the floor of the NYSE rose to 855M, highest since April 30th.  Will we have a sharp drop on a lack of liquidity…could well be! We need a correction – at best! The SEC has allowed the creation of a monster and it is in control of the markets.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 –0.1% vs –0.5%!?! vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.8%; Dow Transports UP 0.2% vs -1.6%!!! vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +1.3%; Russell 2000 UP 0.2% vs -1.7%!!! vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +1.1%; Dow Utilities -0.6%! vs -1.6%!!! vs +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.9%; S&P 500 -0.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +1%; Nasdaq Composite -0.1% vs -1.1%!!! vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +1%; NDQ 100 -0.3% vs -0.9%!!! vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +1%,

*NYSE Volume nosedived again to a below average 3.27B shares vs 4.32B vs 3.49B vs 3.27B vs 3.44B. 5/13’s 2.86B was the low for the year. REAL NYSE Volume also fell sharply to 683M shares from a high 855M vs 685M vs 683M vs 848M (highest since 4/30), vs 594M. Recent highs were 975M (selloff) to 887M (rally). The average last week was a weak 726M shares vs 720M vs 687M vs 859M vs 689M!!! The 12-month average is just 723M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. Note that 3/15’s (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 17 800M+ shares in 2013 – just 5 up, 12 down, but on trades of less than that 76 have been up and just 23 down…there have been 21 mixed sessions.

*new 52 week highs have ranged from 100-864. They rose yesterday again (?) to 811 vs  763 vs 649 vs 811 vs 726. New lows rose to 63 vs 41 vs 31 vs 63 vs 67 (recent range 29-237).

  1. Advance/Declines were mixed: -1.4x vs -3.5x! vs +1.2x vs +1.3x vs +2.6x (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.1x vs -2.9x! vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! vs +1.1x  (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was negative: -1.5x vs +1.6x vs -3.2x! vs +1.1x vs +1.6x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and -1.1x vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! vs +1.6x vs +1.2x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials FELL 1% vs +1.2% vs +0.1% vs +1.3% vs -0.8%. BofA declined again by 0.8% vs -1% to $13.21 -.10, still…10th day above $13 since 4/11/11 – all this month!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose to 14.12 +.30 and after hitting a high of 15.11 vs 14.45 intraday (5th day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.20, and it is back above the 40/50 day (13.37/13.61) with res at the 200 day (15.05)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

Global equities mostly lower: UK -0.5% vs -1.7%! vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs -0.1%; France +0.2% vs -2.4%!!! vs-0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.2%; Germany -0.5% vs -2.5% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.2%; Japan +0.9% vs -7.3%!!! vs +1.6%! vs +0.1% vs +1.5% vs +2.3%; Hang Seng -0.2% vs -2.5%!!! vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +1.8%; Korea +0.2% vs -1.2%! vs +0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.2%; India +0.2% vs -1.9%! vs -0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.3%. U.S. stock futures weak and near session lows in a wide range session. DOW -46, range 103 pts!; SPX -7.90; NDQ -13.50! Ouch – again!

Bonds gave up the early gains yesterday and closed slightly weaker and are little changed overnight except the 10’s and 30’s, again on futures weakness…another headfake?: 10 yr Treasury 2.00% +3/16 (recent range 2.06% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.26% to 2.82%!!!, now 3.17% +7/16. The long TIP is 0.80%!!! +7/16 – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. Recent high yield is 0.82% set on 5/22! Libor update: 0.273% 3 mos., 0.417% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields little changed except Italy and Spain which tanking. Germany 1.43% -1; UK 1.89% +2; France 1.94% +1, Italy 4.15% +13!!!; Spain 4.40% +13!!!; Portugal 5.4% +6!!!; Greece 8.63% -1 vs 8.54% vs 7.98% vs 7.97% vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% (recent range now 7.94%-12.57%). Japan 0.85% -3.  

Gold closed higher on an ‘inside’ day following an ‘outside’ session that had an intraday high of $1413.10! but has been down 8 of the last 10 sessions following Monday’s intraday low of $1336.30, lowest since 4/18, at $1367.40 -$10.20. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains way above at the 40 day/50 day: $1462-1490 – falling again! Overnight it slipped to $1382.30 but is now $1390.20 -$1.60. Crude closed little changed at $94.25 -.03, but with an intraday low of $92.21 which is below the 200 day, a second test! This comes just 12 days after posting a new rally high of $97.17, nearing a 12 month high! Still it closed well above Sup/Res at the 40 day ($93.51), 50 day ($93.60) and 200 day ($92.30). Overnight however, it is weaker again at $93.20 -$1.05 with a session low of $93.12. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

 

Some random thoughts:

They could fill volumes…still trying to work them out…again.

Have a great day!

TB

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