5/21/13…boring…

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Wives are people who feel they don’t dance enough.” – Groucho Marx

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Knowledge will give you power, but character, respect.” – Bruce Lee

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*SAC’s Cohen Said to Weigh Deal That Would Shut Fund to Outside Investors  

*Yen Weakens as Stocks in Europe Decline; Corn, Wheat Lead Commodities Drop

*Apple Executives to Counter U.S. Lawmakers’ Assertions Over Tax Avoidance

*CFTS Scours 1 Million Messages in ISDAfix Probe Before Questioning Brokers

*Growing Chief Executive Confidence Boost Hiring for Executive Recruiters

*U.K. Inflation Rate Falls More Than Economists Forecast to Seven-Month Low

*Low Interest Rates Threaten to Raise Risks at Canadian Banks, Dickson Says

*MetLife Limits Offshore Reinsurance After N.Y. Targets ‘Financial Alchemy’

*Vitamins Costing 30 Cents a Day Seen Effective Delaying Start of Dimentia

*Tornado Kills More Than 90 in Oklahoma City Suburb as School Is Flattened

*Obama to Meet Xi as China Leader for First Time in California Next Month

A strange and finally down day, albeit modest, with the Russell 2000 and NYSE Financials slight positives. Dow Utilities, followed by the S&P 500 (along with most dividend payers) were the losers. Still the major indices established ‘slight’ new highs and remain very close to them. Advance/Declines and Breadth were both slightly positive – despite the price declines so don’t look for followthru. Volume declined to a below average 3.27B shares from 3.44B, as did  ‘real’ trades on the floor of the NYSE which tumbled to 683M from 848M, highest since April 30th. Last week’s volume was a weak 714M shares vs the 12 month average of 724M shares – also historically weak!

So let’s see what else happened:

*Dow Transports -0.1% vs +1.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.8% vs +1.9%; Russell 2000 +0.2% vs +1.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +1.3%!; Dow Utilities -0.6%! vs +0.9% vs -0.9% vs +0.7% vs +0.5%; S&P 500 -0.4%! vs+1% vs -0.5% vs +0.5% vs +1%; Nasdaq Composite -0.1% vs +1% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.9%, NDQ 100 -0.1% vs +1% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.5%, Dow 30 -0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs +0.8%.

*NYSE Volume declined sharply to a below average 3.27B shares vs 3.44B vs 3.47B vs 3.66B vs 3.43B vs 2.86B (low for the year). REAL NYSE Volume also fell sharply to 683M shares from 848M, highest since 4/30, vs 679M vs 738M vs 700M vs 594M (lowest since 4/8). Recent highs were 975M (selloff) to 887M (rally). The average last week was a weak 726M shares vs 720M vs 687M vs 859M vs 689M!!! April’s options expiry came in at a solid but not great 914M shares higher than May’s at 848M. The 12-month average is just 724M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. Note that 3/15’s (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares! There have been just sixteen 800+M shares in 2013 – just 5 up, 11 down, but on trades of less than that 75 have been up and just 23 down…there have been 20 mixed sessions.

*new 52 week highs have now ranged from 100-864. They rose yesterday to 811 vs 726 vs 640 vs 864! vs 793. New lows slipped to 63 vs 67 vs 95 vs 66 vs 38 vs 39 (recent range 29-237).

  1. Advance/Declines were slightly positive: +1.3x vs +2.6x vs -1.5x vs +1.2x vs +2.1x vs -1.5x (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.2x vs +2.2x vs -1.3x vs +1.3x vs +2.3x vs -1.2x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: +1.6x vs +4x! vs -2.3x vs +2x vs +3.3x vs -1.4x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +1.2x vs +2.9x! vs -1.1x vs +1.8x vs +2.4x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose 0.1% vs +1.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.7% vs +0.9%. BofA rose by another 0.6% to $13.51 +.08, 7th day above $13 since 4/11/11!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose slightly from the first decline in four sessions to 13.02 +.57 (only 2nd day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.20, and it is below the 40/50 day (13.37/13.61) and the 200 day (15.05)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

Global equities little changed and mixed: UK +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs flat; France -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.4% vs +0.4% vs –0.1%; Germany -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.1%; Japan +001% vs +1.5% vs +0.7% vs -0.4% vs +2.3%; Hang Seng -0.5% vs +1.8% vs closed vs +0.2% vs +0.5%; Korea -0.1% vs -0.2% vs closed vs +0.8% vs +0.1%; India -0.6% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +2.5%!!!. U.S. stock futures slightly better overnight in another very narrow trading range session: DOW +19; SPX  +0.90; NDQ +2.75.

Bonds were sharply lower Monday and about even overnight…still VERY weak: 10 yr Treasury 1.97% -1/32 (recent range 2.06% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.26% to 2.82%!!!, now 3.17% +1/32. The long TIP is 0.76% -1/4 – still the weakest link since setting a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. Recent high yield is 0.76% set on 5/20! Libor update: 0.274% 3 mos., 0.418% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields slightly higher but little changed. Germany 1.39% +2; UK 1.91% -1; France 1.90% +3, Italy 3.91% +2; Spain 4.16% -2; Portugal 5.16% -1; Greece 7.97% +5 vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% vs 8.52% vs 9.12% vs 9.44% vs 9.43% (recent range now 7.94%!!!-12.57%!). Japan 0.87% +3.  

Gold closed higher after six straight declines following an intraday low of $1336.30, lowest since 4/18, at $1384.10 +$19.40. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains way above at the 40 day/50 day: $1473-1499 – now falling fast! Overnight it is falling again at $1364.50 -$19.60 with a session low of $1362.80. Crude closed higher at $96.71 +.69, 9 days after posting a new rally high of $97.17, nearing a 12 month high! It is well above Sup/Res at the 40 day ($93.63), 50 day ($93.53) and 200 day ($92.29), all rising again. Overnight it is $96.37 -.34.  4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

 

Some random thoughts:

They could fill volumes…perhaps I can put them all down for tomorrow, but not now.

TB

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