5/10/13…the best days of our lives…not!

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I think crime pays. The hours are good, you travel a lot.” – Woody Allen

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Every journalist has a novel in him, which is an excellent place for it.” – Russell Lynes

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks in Europe Rise while Treasuries Fall as Yen Slips to Four-Year Low – !!!

*Central Banks Keep Easing as 511 Rate Cuts Fail to Spur World’s Economies – ditto!

*Sobel Plays Bad Cop to U.S. Treasury’s Lew Amid G-7 Debate Over Austerity – ugh!

*Buffett’s CEOs Spending $12.1 Billion Out of Spotlight Match boss on Heinz

*Stressed Irish Banks Pose Tough Hurdle on Bailout Exit Route – still stressed!

*No Lehman Moment as Six Biggest Banks Seen Too Big at $102 Billion to Fail – and that folks, is one sad commentary…

*Obama’s Second-Term Agenda Complicated by Delay Over Cabinet Confirmations – is this the kind of government you want? Are proud of? Or a party to be proud of? Not TB!

*U.S. Urges Russia to Avoid Destabilizing Weapons Sale to Syrian Regimes

The beat keeps on – ad nauseum. It seems the more weak signs in the economy the more stocks, or those running them, revel in it.  The best performer of late, Dow Transports, finally fell from its perch following a weak gain on Wednesday – is this a warning flag? Dow Utilities flopped again falling the most, 1.5% but look at the ever- headshaking NDQ 100: Down just 0.2% or 7 points but with just 46 advancing and 54 down. APPL is even more volatile, this time losing 5.7 index points followed by MSFT -2.4 (note they were the two biggest gainers on Wednesday!).  Only two stocks (NWSA/ORCL) gained more than one index point. Instant insanity!!! Now all the indices are at record highs…eking out slight new highs each day…until they don’t! You can buy in here if you like…but not with TB’s money!!!

So let’s see what else happened:

*Dow Transports DOWN 1.1% vs +0.2% vs +1.6% vs +1.3% vs +2.1% vs +1% vs -2.3%!!!; Russell 2000 DOWN 0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.8% vs +0.6% vs +1.6% vs +1.7% vs -2.3%; Dow Utilities DOWN 1.5% vs -1.2%! vs +0.9% vs -1.4% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1%! S&P 500 -0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs +1.1% vs +0.9% vs -0.9%; Nasdaq Composite -0.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +1.1% vs +1.3% vs -0.9%, NDQ 100 -0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.1%? vs +0.4% vs +1.1% vs +1.3% vs .-0.5%, Dow 30 -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.6% vs +1% vs +0.9% vs -0.9%.

*NYSE Volume slipped again to a below average 3.4B shares vs 3.55B vs 3.3B vs 3.05B vs 3.6B vs 3.5B vs 3.67B vs 2.88B shares (now weakest in 22 sessions!!!). REAL NYSE Volume FELL to a well below average 670M shares vs 727M (highest since 4/30) vs 636M vs 619M vs 716M vs 643M vs 697M vs 887M vs 599M shares (lowest since 4/8)….indicative of a total absence of retail! Recent highs were 975M (selloff) to 887M (rally). The average last week was a weak 720M shares vs 687M vs 859M vs 689M!!! The last options expiry came in at a solid but not great 914M shares. The 12-month average is just 731M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. Note that 3/15’s (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares! There have been just fifteen 800+M shares in 2013 – just 4 up, 11 down, but on trades of less than that 73 have been up and just 20 down…there have been 20 mixed sessions…hint: low volume rallies!!! Real buyers???

  1. new 52 week highs have ranged from 121-722, They fell to 613 vs 769 vs 722 vs 499 vs 786 vs 411 vs 386 vs 486 vs 418 vs 267 vs  495 vs 400 vs 400 vs 237 vs 228 vs 106 vs 100. New lows also dipped to 37 vs 45 vs 36 vs 32 vs 36 vs 50 vs 61 vs 42 vs 29 vs 40 vs 34 vs 48 vs 43 vs 96 vs 82 vs 159 vs 237 vs 120 vs 197.
  2. Advance/Declines were negative: -1.8x vs +1.9x vs +2.9x vs +1.5x vs +2.6x vs +3.1x vs -2.6x (compare to +4x, +2.6x, -3.5x, +4.4x, -7.1x) on NYSE and -1.5x vs +1.4x vs +1.7x vs +1.5x vs +2.8x vs +3x vs -3.5x. Breadth was similar: -1.9x vs +2.3x vs +2.5x vs +2.2x vs +3.7x vs +3.1x vs -4.5x!!! (also compare +3.4x, 3.9x, -10.5x!!!, +6.4x, -7.2x) on NYSE and -1.1x vs +1.8x vs -1.1x! vs +1.5x vs +2.5x vs +2.9x vs -2.7x (compare +3x, -3x!, -5.2x, +6.2x, -12.8x.  
  3. NYSE Financials fell 0.8% vs + 0.6% vs  +0.6% vs +0.6% vs +0.6% vs +0.9% vs +1% vs -1%!. BofA declined by 0.8% to $12.91 -.14 after posting just one  $13.05 (high since 4/13/11!) +.15
  4. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose modestly to 13.13 +.47, in a slightly wider range session 12.78-13.53, compare to Thurs/Friday’s 13.58-14.48. The range for the last three weeks is 12.06 (multi year low) to 18.20, and it is below the 40/50 day (13.49/13.85) and the 200 day (15.26)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.43!!!

Global equities stronger, ex-Korea???: UK +0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.4% vs +0.9%!; France +0.96% vs -0.9%! vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -0.2%; Germany +0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.6% vs +0.9% vs flat; Japan +2.9%!!! vs -0.7% vs +0.7% vs +3.6%!!! vs closed; Hang Seng +0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.9% vs +0.6%; Korea DOWN 1.8%!!! vs +1.2%!!! vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; India +0.7% vs -0.3% vs +0.5% vs +1.1% vs +0.5%. U.S. stock futures slightly higher in yet another narrow trading range session: DOW +35; SPX +2.40; NDQ +5.25.

Bonds don’t stand a fighting chance as their feeble attempt at a rally yesterday failed them even with a weak stock market  – especially TIPS!!! …and they are all up modestly overnight – the 30 yr is back ABOVE 3%…one heck of an ‘E’ ticket ride!!!!: 10 yr Treasury 1.85% -5/16 (recent range 2.06% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.26% to 2.82%!!!, now 3.05% -11/16. The long TIP is back to 0.63% -3/4 – and still performing miserably since setting a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. The recent high yield was 0.67% on 3/11! Libor update: 0.275% 3 mos., 0.426% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields higher across the board but problem countries yields still very low: Germany 1.33% +7; UK 1.84% +6; France 1.91% +7, Italy 3.90% +2; Spain 4.19% +3; Portugal 5.37% +1; Greece 9.44% +2 vs 9.43% vs 9.44% vs 9.53% vs 9.58% vs 9.68% vs 10.09%!!! vs 10.64% vs 10.81% vs 10.92% vs 11.18% vs 11.13% vs 11.05% vs 11.08 vs 11.22% (recent range now 9.42%!!!-12.57%!)..   

Gold closed  slightly lower, yesterday at $1468.60 -$5.10 in dull trading. Last Friday’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains way above at the 40 day/50 day: $1510-1525 – still falling! Overnight it is being slammed at $1435.30 -$33.30 with a session low of $1430. Crude closed a tad lower at $96.39 -.23, three days after posting a new rally high of $97.17, nearing a 12 month high! It is well above Sup/Res at the 40 day ($93.26), 50 day ($93.92) and 200 day ($92.07), all rising again. Overnight it is $95.49 -.90.  4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

The stock market refuses to give up the ghost and a ghastly ghost it is. In what kind of hell do stocks rally when the government is in chaos and the economy is showing signs of slowing even further? You have to believe…but…TB doesn’t! Sell in May???

Sincerely,

TB

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: