4/11/13…all are lies and obfuscations

From the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Among the things that money can’t buy is what it used to.” – Max Kauffmann

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “We don’t see things as they are, we see things as we are.” Anais Nin

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Jobless Claims in U.S. Plunged More Than Forecast on Seasonal Adjustments

*ICAP Brokers on ‘Treasure Island’ Said to Reap Rewards From ISDAfix Screen

*Europe Stocks Rise With Italian Bonds; U.S. Futures Fluctuate on Jobs Data

*Treasury Yield Forecasts Drop on Concern U.S. Economic Expansion Will Slow

*Nestle Says Switzerland Risks Losing Business After Passing Limits on Pay

*JPMorgan Asset Preparing for Emerging-Stocks Rebound in Second-Half 2013

*REIT Stock Surge Seen as Catalyst for U.S. Conversions – due to great returns!

*Medical School at $278,000 Means Even Bernanke’s Son Can’t Avoid Big Debt

*North Korea Says Industry Zone Closing Temprorary Amid Missile Test Alert – spin!!!

*Obama Putting Focus on Republican in Push for Budget Agreement

*North Korea’s Propaganda Blasts From the Past Call U.S. a Boiled Pumpkin – awww

*Alabama’s Republicans Court Hispanic Voters While Pushing Immigrants Away !!!

OK, okay…a real rally – but where were the retail buyers? Bet you can’t tell me as the volume doesn’t indicate much! Dow Transports, the two Nasdaq indices, Russell 2000 small cap, all up 1.8%+! But Dow Utilities also rose a nice 0.8% – almost as much as the Dow (0.9%) and slightly less than the S&P 500 (+1.2%). Translation: it was an ‘up’ day! Total NYSE Volume rose again to an average 3.47B shares vs 3.23B, A/D’s and Breadth were Strong .  The VIX declined again and is now well below the 40/50 day, and way below the 200 day m/a. Close was lowest since 3/20..

*Dow Transports +1.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.9% vs +0.3% vs -0.5% vs +0.1% vs -1.3% vs -1.2% vs -1.5%. Russell 2000 +1.8% vs -0.2% vs +0.9%, while Dow Utilities rose 0.8% vs -0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.5%. The S&P 500 rose by 1.2% vs +0.4% vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs +0.4%. Nasdaq Composite and 100 were both up 1.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.6% and +0.7% vs +0.5% respectively, while the Dow rose by 0.39% vs +0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.8%.

*NYSE Volume rose again to 3.46B shares vs 3.23B shares from a WEAK 2.82B shares vs 3.5B vs 3.32B vs 4.04B (highest since 3/15’s options expiry!) vs 3.29B vs 2.74B vs 3.27B vs 2.9B shares. REAL Volume rose slightly to a WEAK 688M shares (ave this week so far is a weak 647M) vs 670M vs 583M vs 726M vs 647M vs 812M vs 639M vs 573M vs 876M (high since since 3/15) vs 596M shares vs 558M shares –the range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. Note that 3/15’s (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares! Ave vol. 12 mos. 736M, ytd 714M. There have been just 11 800+M shares in 2013 – mostly on DOWN days!

  1. new 52 week highs which have ranged from 121-709, exploded to 505 vs 312 vs 269 vs 146 vs 143 vs 193 vs 417. New lows plunged to 31 vs 52 vs 55 vs 96 vs 81 vs 114 vs 64; recent high 98.
  2. Advance/Declines were SOLID: +3.1x vs +1.4x vs +1.2x vs -1.1x vs +1.6% vs -3.7x on NYSE and +3.8% vs -1.2x vs +1.5x vs -1.5x vs +1.8x vs -3.3x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar: +3.2x vs +1.9x vs +3.7x! vs +1.0x vs +2.4x vs  -5.7x!!! on NYSE and +6.5x!!! vs +2.1x vs +2x vs -1.5x vs +2.1x vs -4.3x!!! on Nasdaq.
  3. The Dow rose by 0.9% vs +0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.8%. Dow Transports rose 1.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.9% vs +0.5% vs +0.9% vs -1.3% while Dow Utilities rose 0.8%! vs -0.2% vs +0.7% vs +0.5% vs +0.9% vs -0.3%.The two Nasdaq indices rose by 1.8% and 1.9% (95/5!) respectively vs 0.5% vs +0.6% and +0.7% vs +0.5%. The Russell 2000 rose by 1.8% vs -0.2%? vs +0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs -1.7%. NYSE Financials rose by 1.6% vs +0.4% vs +0.7% vs -0.3% vs +1% vs -1.6%. Brokers +2.3%??? vs +0.4% vs +1.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.8% vs -2.1% while the two bank indices rose by 1.4% vs +1.7% vs +1.1% vs -0.3%??? vs +0.7%. BofA again most active rising +0.6% vs +0.3% to $12.32 vs  +2% vs  +0.3% vs +1.1% vs -2.8%, 3rd day above $12 since 3/6- the range is $11.11, on 12/17 to $12.78 on 3/20. Note: 12 cents is a 1% change!!!.
  4. Lastly, volatility (S&P VIX), fell for a 3rd day to 12.36 -.48 vs 12.84 vs 13.19 vs 13.92 vs 13.89 vs 14.21 (high of 14.66 from a multi-year low!!!), it is oscillating wildly in a narrow range of 12.30-14.66, average 13.23, well below the 40/50 day (13.53/13.49) and the 200 day at 15.72…ytd the average has been 13.53 with a range of 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.64!!! Complacent???

Global equity markets higher: UK +0.3% vs +0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs -1.8%; France +0.6% vs +1.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs -2%!!!; Germany +0.4% vs +1.2% vs +0.1% vs flat vs -2%!!!; Japan +2%!!! vs +0.7% vs flat vs +2.8%!!! vs +1.6% vs +2.2% vs +3%!!!; Hang Seng +0.3% vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -0.1% vs -2.7%!!!; Korea +0.7% vs +0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs -1.6%!!! vs -1.2%; India +0.7% vs +1% vs -1.2%!!! vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs -1.6% vs -1.2%. U.S. stocks opening slightly weaker after futures traded in a narrow range overnight: DOW -4; SPX flat; NDQ -10.15; Trans -13!.

Bonds were weaker yesterday but up overnight: 10 yr Treasury 1.79% +1/8 (recent range WAS 2.06% to 1.85%), and the 30 yr’s 3.26% to 3.05%, 2.99% +1/4. The long TIP continues to weaken after setting a new (record?) low of 0.36%, now 0.52% +9/16???, the high yield was 0.67%! Libor update: 0.240% 3 mos., 0.439% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed again: Germany 1.31% +1; UK 1.77% -3; France 1.85 -1, Italy 4.31 +1; Spain 4.62% +1; Portugal 6.23% -4; Greece 11.06% +10 vs 11.25% vs 11.43% vs 11.53% vs 11.94% vs 11.20% vs 11.94% vs 12.09% (recent range 10.58-12.57%!).  

Gold remains below $1600 and was slammed, closed lower at  $1558.80 -$17.50, with a low of $1555.30, still aove that new low of $1539.40, from 4/4, lowest since 6/29/11!!! It is way below resistance and the 1/17 high of $1699.90. The recent intraday high was $1618.30 (3/21), almost to the 40 day on 3/21!  We are around the 2/21/13 low of $1556.40 – not seen since May 2012! Last time it was below $1500 was Sept. 2011, now critical. The breakdown puts first resistance at the 40/50 day m/a’s $1593-1609 – still falling steadily. Overnight it is $1558.10 -.70. Crude closed higher again at $94.64 +.44. Friday’s intraday low was $91.91 – lowest since 3/21 – it broke above the 40 day ($93.78) and the 50 day ($94.40). The high of $97.80 on 4/1 was highest since 2/15! The range is $91.60-$97.80 since 3/12! The recent low is $89.33, lowest since 12/26, set on March 4. Overnight it is $94.14 -.50 – two steps forward, one back!

 

Some random thoughts:

What else can one say as the GOP professes to be ‘new and improved’ yet continues its old ways. On PBS last night a GOP representative accused the Dems of only wanting tax increases…a boldfaced LIE! She had the gall to say that they just got a ‘tax increase’ this year with the payroll tax. Who wrote her comments for her, Grover Norquist??? This is the crap they continue to dish out: we had a ONE YEAR moratorium on the payroll tax to help rebuild the economy…it EXPIRED…and thanks to sequestration cannot be taken off. THAT idiot…is not a tax increase…nor would be letting the Bush EMERGENCY, temporary tax cuts! How did LBJ get blamed for his guns and butter policies but not Bush? He fought TWO wars, not only without paying for them, but giving TWO rounds of unnecessary  tax cuts that almost exclusively benefitted the wealthy! Worse, it caused a worsening of the wealth gap. Is this a country you are proud to be part of? If so, you will be happy when the ‘masses’ say: we’re mad as hell and not going to take it anymore: and they won’t…time is not on our side!

Have a reflective day!

TB

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