4/10/13…the good, the bad, and the ugly in Shady Hook

From the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A study of economics usually reveals that the best time to buy anything is last year.” – Marty Allen

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “When walking through a melon patch, don’t adjust your sandals.” – Proverb


Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Climb With U.S. Index Futures on Stimulus Speculation; Yen Weakens

*Bank Rally in U.S. Seen Fading as Revenue Trails 35% Quarterly Profit Jump

*China Posts Surprise Trade Deficit on Slower Export Growth as Data Probed

*Franc Is Unlikely to Challenge Euro Ceiling as Options Signal Swiss Strength

*UBS to Expand Asia Corporate Advisory Headcount by 10% on Growth Outlook

*ISDA Hires Oliver Wyman to Review Swaps Process Under CFTC Investigation – oh really??? NOW???

*Britain Dodging Recession to Stiffen Resistance to Deeper QE

*TCW Faces Bond Wipeout as Colombia Intervenes in Peso Market – another Tesabono problem???

*Forex in Delivery Room Shows Asian Women Top Men Managing Millions 3-to-2

Ah, a second ‘up’ day – of sorts, except the two leaders the prior day, Dow Transports and the Russell 2000, along with Dow Utilities, were all down…go figure…the trend, if there is on…is not your friend. Volume rose to a lukewarm 3.23B shares but A/D’s and Breadth were unimpressive and Nasdaq A/D’s were negative! Some rally! Total NYSE  The VIX declined again and remains below the 40/50 day, but still way below the 200 day m/a – still swinging at the fence.

*Dow Transports FELL by 0.3% vs +0.9% vs +0.3% vs -0.5% vs +0.1% vs -1.3% vs -1.2% vs -1.5%. Russell 2000 declined by 0.2% vs +0.9%, while Dow Utilities slipped 0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.5%. The S&P 500 rose by +0.4% vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs +0.4%. Nasdaq Composite and 100 +0.5% vs +0.6% and +0.7% vs +0.5% respectively, while the Dow rose by 0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.8%. Not much of a rally, but…

*NYSE Volume rose slightly to 3.23B shares from a WEAK 2.82B shares vs 3.5B vs 3.32B vs 4.04B (highest since 3/15’s options expiry!) vs 3.29B vs 2.74B vs 3.27B vs 2.9B shares. REAL Volume also rose to 670M shares vs 583M vs 726M vs 647M vs 812M vs 639M vs 573M vs 876M (high since since 3/15) vs 596M shares vs 558M shares –the range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. Note that 3/15’s (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares! Ave vol. 12 mos. 736M, ytd 714M. There have been just 11 800+M shares in 2013 – mostly on DOWN days!

  1. new 52 week highs which have ranged from 121-709, surged to 312 vs 269 vs 146 vs 143 vs 193 vs 417. New lows slipped to 52 vs 55 vs 96 vs 81 vs 114 vs 64; recent high 98.
  2. Advance/Declines were MIXED: +1.4x vs +1.2x vs -1.1x vs +1.6% vs -3.7x on NYSE and -1.2x vs +1.5x vs -1.5x vs +1.8x vs -3.3x on Nasdaq. Breadth was better: +1.9x vs +3.7x! vs +1.0x vs +2.4x vs  -5.7x!!! on NYSE and +2.1x vs +2x vs -1.5x vs +2.1x vs -4.3x!!! on Nasdaq.
  3. The Dow rose by 0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.8%. Dow Transports fell 0.3% vs +0.9% vs +0.5% vs +0.9% vs -1.3% while Dow Utilities slipped 0.2% vs +0.7% vs +0.5% vs +0.9% vs -0.3%.The two Nasdaq indices rose by 0.5% vs +0.6% and +0.7% vs +0.5% respectively (100 had 62 up, 38 down). The Russell 2000 declined by 0.2%? vs +0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs -1.7%. NYSE Financials rose by 0.4% vs +0.7% vs -0.3% vs +1% vs -1.6%. Brokers +0.4% vs +1.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.8% vs -2.1% while the two bank indices rose by 1.7% vs +1.1% and DOWN 0.3%??? vs +0.7% respectively (None of that makes sense!). BofA again most active rising 0.3% to $12.25 +2% vs  +0.3% vs +1.1% vs -2.8%, 2nd day above $12 since 3/6- the range is $11.11, on 12/17 to $12.78 on 3/20. Note: 12 cents is a 1% change!!!.
  4. Lastly, volatility (S&P VIX), fell for a 2nd day to 12.84 -.35 vs 13.19 vs 13.92 vs 13.89 vs 14.21 (high of 14.66 from a multi-year low!!!), it is oscillating wildly in a narrow range of 12.30-14.66, average 13.23, and is back below the 40/50 day m/a’s (13.53/13.49) and the 200 day at 15.72…ytd the average has been 13.53 with a range of 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.64!!!

Global equity markets higher: UK +0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs -1.8% vs -0.8%; France +1.3%! vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs -2%!!! vs -0.3%; Germany +1.2%! vs +0.1% vs flat vs -2%!!! vs -0.3%; Japan +0.7% vs flat vs +2.8%!!! vs +1.6% vs +2.2% vs +3%!!!; Hang Seng +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -0.1% vs -2.7%!!! vs -0.1%; Korea +0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs -1.6%!!! vs -1.2%; India +1% vs -1.2%!!! vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs -1.6% vs -1.2%. U.S. stock futures higher at top of o/n range: DOW +45; SPX +5; NDQ +10.75.

Bonds were little changed yesterday but lower overnight: 10 yr Treasury 1.76% -1/8 (recent range WAS 2.06% to 1.85%), and the 30 yr’s 3.26% to 3.05%, 2.96% -3/8. The long TIP continues to weaken after setting a new (record?) low of 0.36% at 0.49% -3/8, the high yield was 0.67%! Libor update: 0.240% 3 mos., 0.440% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed: Germany 1.28% +2; UK 1.75% +2; France 1.84 +5, Italy 4.33 -1; Spain 4.64% -6!; Portugal 6.24% -9; Greece 11.25% -9 vs 11.43% vs 11.53% vs 11.94% vs 11.20% vs 11.94% vs 12.09% (recent range 10.58-12.57%!).  

Gold remains below $1600 but closed higher at  $1586.70 +$14.20, avoiding the new low of $1539.40, from 4/4, lowest since 6/29/11!!! It is still way below resistance and the 1/17 high of $1699.90. The recent intraday high was $1618.30 (3/21), almost to the 40 day on 3/21!  We are at least above the 2/21/13 low of $1554.30 – not seen since May 2012! Last time it was below $1500 was Sept. 2011, now critical. The breakdown puts first resistance at the 40/50 day m/a’s $1594-1609 – still falling steadily. Overnight it is $1579.40 -$7.30. Crude closed higher again at $94.20 +.84. Friday’s intraday low was $91.91 – lowest since 3/21 – it remains below the 50 day ($94.39) but the session high was 94.48, and closed above the  40 day ($93.77). The high of $97.80 on 4/1 was highest since 2/15! The range is $91.60-$97.80 since 3/12! The recent low is $89.33, lowest since 12/26, set on March 4. Overnight it is $93.82 -.82 – both: two steps forward, one back!


Some random thoughts:

The stabbing of 15 students at a college near Houston, brought about cries from the AKA (American Knife Assn.) that the only thing that can stop a bad guy with a knife is a good guy with a knife. Hmmm, where have we heard THAT before? They suggest placing a person with a knife in every school in the country and that coupled with one with a gun should stop anything except a severe beating! (Not true but if the knife makers had the clout of the gun makers it would be happening!).

Think about that as the parents of children killed at Shady Hook meet senators and plead their case…hey, how much money is in it for them though? They can’t fight their biggest supporters – especially the GOP who are bought and paid for! Speak up, America, this is your chance and then vote your mind in the next election and let’s clean house.

Last night on PBS the president of the Shooting Association of America…coincidentally headquartered in Shady Hook, took a negative stance on gun registrations for…get this…creating a burden on the ‘mom and pop’ gun retailers, saying 83% of his members are opposed to total gun registrations as it creates too much paperwork for them, and they are afraid of liability.

See the argument runs like this…what if I sell a gun to a person who resells it to someone else? Well, lemme see…how have they been selling multiple guns…even more than a dozen to a girl who says she is buying them as a present for her boyfriend…hmmm, all the same kind of weapon…must be a collector, right? Goddamn it! Where is the sensibility in all this? When are we going to act properly? How can the Shooting Assn be headquartered in Shady Hook and have the audacity to make comments like that?

I give up…not on America yet…but it appears apathy reigns supreme.

Have a reflective day!




  1. Yarnman said

    TB–Just a note that it’s the “Sandy Hook School” in Newtown, CT., also, ironically, the home town of the National Shooting Sports Foundation. The state of Connecticut, which has recently passed stricter gun regulations, is the home of several large gun manufacturers, and is a hotbed–no surprise–of all sorts of gun associations, some of which direct their efforts towards school children in the form of “clubs” with school competitions and leagues. The list of gun manufacturers in Connecticut includes: Colt, Conntech, GE Credit Union (!), Gunx, Marlin, Mossberg, Sturm Ruger, US Firearms, and Wildey. And these larger outfits sub-contract lots of jobs in small Connecticut towns where machine shops make gun parts and assemblies for the big boys.–Yarnman

    • traderbill said

      Thanks Yarnman…I have commented on the NSSA link there, but was not aware of how many gun manufacturers are located in Conn. I was very diturbed to hear their president siding with the NRA on gun registration saying it is too onerous on ‘mom and pop’ retailers… wonder how these people can walk around Newtown or go home to their families??? they must have kids…but NRA and gun mfrs. pay the bills!!! Bastards!

    • traderbill said

      Did I write that again??? I knew and have commented about the NSSA being headquartered there but didn’t know about all the gun mfrs in Conn.!
      How do these people go home to their families at night after doing everything they can to thwart gun controls? Who do they think they are? Bankers???

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