3/28/13..the wisdom of SCOTUS

From the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A wise old man pointed out that it was impossible to judge the happiness of a married couple from observation alone. “Some couples hold hands because, if they let go, they’re afraid they’d kill each other.”

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.” – Michael de Montaigne…ain’t that the truth…look at our politics today!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Jobless Claims in U.S. Increase More Than Forecats as Labor Progress Halts –HALTS!

*U.S. GDP Rose at Revised 0.4% Pace in Fourth Quarter on Business Spending

*European Stocks Gain Amid Euro Rebound While S&P 500 Index Little Changed

*Cyprus Opens Banks Amid Withdrawal Limits as Customers Form Orderly Lines – Ha!

*Missing Billionaire Casts Pall Over China’s Business Push as Deals Falter – Oops!

*Pimco’s El-Erian Says Capital Controls Choking Economic Growth in Cyprus – do tell!

*Nasdaq’s NLX Market Said to Delay Its April Start as FSA Seeks More Tests

*REITS Trigger Fed Warning as American Capital tops $100 Billion – time to rethink?

*Gay Marriage Backers See U.S. Supreme Court Boost Short of a Total Victory

*Christie Travels to Democrats’ Urban Strongholds in Pursuit of Re-Election

…the seesaw effect on the Dow and S&P ended yesterday after TEN straight sessions with a double on the downside. At least the Dow came back from -84 to close off 33 pts. The best that could be said for it was that Transports were up, slightly while the rest were mixed:

*Volume was steady at a weak 2.9B shares vs 3.16B on Monday – yep a losing session!

*Dow -0.2% vs +0.8% vs -0.4% vs +0.6%, S&P 500 -0.1% vs +0.5%/Nasdaq Comp +0.1% vs +0.6%, 100 +0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.4% vs +0.9%, Russell 2000 FLAT vs +0.6% vs flat vs +0.3%

*Dow Utilities up again by 0.3% vs +0.9% – best performer again vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.8%. NYSE Financials -0.4% vs +0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% twice!

*Advance/declines and breadth were mixed with no big moves: New Highs 348 vs 422 vs 512 vs 356 vs 513.  New Lows rose to 60 vs 44 vs 56 vs 33 vs 36 – trend change?

*Volatility (VIX) rose by a modest 3% and closed 1315.+.38 – still below the 40/50 day m/a’s. You can’t tell the players without a scorecard.

NYSE Volume was steady at a weak 2.9B shares (lowest since 2/11’s 267M) vs 3.16B vs 2.92B vs 3.32B vs 3.74B vs 3.15B vs 4.93B (2013 high), average of last 18 sessions is 3.3B shares – and slipping! Real NYSE volume rose slightly 596M shares vs 558M shares -lowest since 2/11 – vs 655M vs 620M, vs 673M vs 731M vs 676M vs 1.825B (12-month high!!!). The three day average is just 603M with only 700M (ave) day in the last six!The range since 2/11 is 497 to 1.83B with an average of 742M shares. Last Friday’s 1.83B shares was second only to 12/21’s 12 mo. high of 1.88B shares. Note that Friday (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares with no other sessions reaching anywhere near 800M shares!!! Ave vol. 12 mos. 738M, ytd 720M. There have still been just NINE 800+M shares in 2013.

  1. new 52 week highs which have ranged from 121-709, rose fell again to 348 vs 422 vs 512 vs 356 (also on a big rally???) vs 531 vs 328 vs 282 vs 584 vs 652 vs 410 vs 413 vs 560 vs 630. New lows ROSE to 60 vs 44 vs 56 vs 33 vs 36 vs 43 vs 50; recent high 98.
  2. Advance/Declines were weak and mixed at +1.1x vs +2.2x vs -1.4x vs +1.7x vs +2.9x! vs-1.3x on NYSE and -1.1x vs +1.4x vs -1.1x vs +1.5x vs +2.4x vs -1.4x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar but reversed (?) at -1.1x vs +2.5x vs -2.2x vs +1.8x vs +3.2x! vs -1.6x on NYSE and +1.5x (?) vs +1.7x vs -1.5x vs +1.3x vs +3.5x! vs -1.8x vs -2.3x! on Nasdaq.
  3. The Dow fell 0.2% vs +0.8% vs -0.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.4% vs flat. The rest were mixed. The Russell 2000 was FLAT vs +0.6% vs flat vs +0.3% vs +1%.
  4. NYSE Financials fell by 0.4% vs +0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% two days, vs -0.7% vs -1.1%, hard hit brokers barely budged again to +0.1% vs +0.1% vs -1.2% vs flat vs +1.6%! vs -0.7% vs -1.1% vs -0.2%. Both bank indices were lower by0.6% and 0.3%. BofA the most active: -0.4% vs -1% vs -1.3%! vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +1% vs -0.1% vs +3.8% – the range is $11.11, on 12/17 to $12.78 last Thursday! Note: 11 cents is a 1% change!!!
  5. Lastly volatility (S&P VIX), which gapped up on the open 3/18 (from a multi-year low!!!), rose but remains below the 40/50 day m/a’s: 13.15 vs 12.7 vs 13.74 vs 13.57 vs 13.99 vs 12.67 vs 14.39 vs 13.36 vs 11.30 (12 mo low), with a high of 15.40 last Thursday of 15.40, highest since 3/4. Deal…or no deal?

Global equity markets mixed reversing yesterday with Europe up, Asia down: UK +0.6% vs -0.6% vs +0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.8%; France +0.6% vs -1.5%! vs +0.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.2%; Germany +0.4% vs -1.3%! vs +0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.8%; Japan -1.3%! vs +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +1.7% vs +1.3%; Hang Seng -0.7% vs +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.1%; Kospi FLAT vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +1.5% vs -0.4% vs -1%; India +0.7% vs closed vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.5%. U.S. stock futures little changed overnight : DOW +3; SPX -1; NDQ +2.50.

Bonds rallied sharply along with foreign bonds of the strong nations in a flight to quality…this had nothing to do with the economy but are off modestly overnight: 10 yr Treasury 1.86% -1/8 vs 1.84% +5/8!!! (old range was 2.06% to 1.85%), and the 30 yr’s 3.26% to 3.05%, closed 3.09% +1-1/8!, now 3.10% -5/16. The long Tip, which made also rallied sharply – finally – to 0.57% +1-1/8 and is now 0.59% -3/8, the high yield was 0.66%. Libor update: 0.243% 3 mos., 0.445% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed, again with troubled Greece falling sharply but from a very high level: Germany 1.27% +1; UK 1.75% +3; Italy 4.77% -1; Spain 5.08% +2; Portugal 6.30% +7!; Greece 12.30% -19 vs 12.57%!!! +78!!! vs 11.66% +16 vs 11.37% vs 11.48% vs 11.21% vs 11.06% vs 10.58%. Big losses for a lot of traders!!!

Gold closed higher and more importantly back above $1600 after just one close below (1st time since 3/15). It remains well below resistance and way below the 1/17 high of $1699.90. It closed at $1607.20 +$9.90 on an outside day with a narrow range, just thre days after an intraday high of $1616.50, almost to the 40 day!  2/21/13’s low was $1554.30 – not seen since May 2012! Last time it was below $1500 was Sept. 2011. Overnight it is – $8.60 to $1598.60! $1600 is critical! The breakdown through the 40/50/200 day m/a’s puts major resistance $1615-1671 – and falling steadily, res/sup at $1600, a double bottom from 8/14-15, also a psychological level. Crude was slightly higher, closing at $96.58 +.24, with another high of $96.84, highest since 2/20! It now has a range of $91.60-$96.84 since 3/12! The recent low is $89.33, lowest since 12/26, set on March 4. Overnight it is $96.13 -.15 – still well above the just converged and crossed 50 day ($94.49), and 40 day ($94.21)!

All I have to say as SCOTUS debates the rights of ALL people to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness in terms of what the definition of is is. Meanwhile the global banking system remains in disarray… how sound would our banking system be without the Federal government behind it???…thanks to GREED, dereliction, stupidity, and poor supervision by the banking regulators thanks to the demise of Glass-Steagall. How could we let them destroy the best banking system in the world in a less than a decade and have done nothing about it for the last nearly five years…money…which buys influence. Sick!

Have a great day!



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