3/27/13…don’t bank on it!

Sorry this is late due to an early morning meeting…but banks are in deep doo doo this morning. TB

 

From the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “My husband and I are either going to buy a dog or have a child. We can’t decide whether to ruin our carpet or ruin our lives.” – Rita Rudner

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Business is a combination of war and sport.” – Andre Maurois

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Cyprus Bank Tax Sets No Precedent for Future Euro Bailouts, Document Shows

*Stocks Decline as Euro Weakens to Four-Month Low; Italy, Spain Bonds Drop

*Banks in Cyprus to Open Tomorrow After Controls to Prevent Deposit Flight – Ha!

*British Banks Need to Raise Another $38 Billion of Capital in BOE Estimate – !!!

*Fund Manager Bonus Curbs Seen Eased as EU Lawmakers With Investor Votes

*Spain Revises Deficit Higher After Europe Demand Change in Tax Treatment

*BRICS Approve $100 Billion currency Crisis Fund While Bank Start-Up Stalls

*Wal-Mart Predicts Mounting Expenses From Probes Into Bribery Allegations – !!!

*Chinese Shadow Banking Proves Hard to Squelch in City Plagued by Suicides

*Citizens Flee Flint As Michigan Emergency Manager Makes Its Books Balance

*High Court Reluctance on Gay Marriage Raises Stakes in U.S. Benefits Fight –  -(

*North Korea Cuts Military Hotline to South After Artillery Is Put on Alert – !!!

*Millions Are Seen Affected in Global Web Disruption, Anti-Spam Group Says

*Baucus Proves Democrat Foil Bowing to Montana by Refusing Revenues – !!!

 

…the seesaw effect has now been in place for TEN straight sessions and while yesterday was solidly up, volume remains subdued with another long weekend for most approaching…yet the bulls remain…well…BULLISH!

*Volume FELL from 3.16B back to 2.9B – a weak sign in a rally

*Dow +0.8% vs -0.4% vs +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.5%/Nasdaq Comp +0.6% vs combined -03% vs +0.7%, 100 +0.8% vs -0.4% vs +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.6% vs flat vs +0.3%

*Dow Utilities UP 0.9% – best performer? vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.8%. NYSE Financials +0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% twice!

*Advance/declines and breadth were modestly positive: New Highs 422 vs 512 vs 356 vs 513.  New Lows dipped to 44 vs 56 vs 33 vs 36 – weird!!!

*Volatility (VIX) traded in a very narrow range before closing lower at 12.77 – back below the 40/50 day m/a’s. You can’t tell the players without a scorecard.

NYSE Volume fell again despite the ‘rally’ to:  2.9B shares (lowest since 2/11’s 267M) vs 3.16B vs 2.92B vs 3.32B vs 3.74B vs 3.15B vs 4.93B (2013 high), average of last 18 sessions is 3.4B shares – and slipping! Real NYSE volume plunged to 558M shares -lowest since 2/11 – vs 655M vs 620M, vs 673M vs 731M vs 676M vs 1.825B (12-month high!!!). The range since 2/11 is 497 to 1.83B with an average of 742M shares. Last Friday’s 1.83B shares was second only to 12/21’s 12 mo. high of 1.88B shares. Note that Friday (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares with no other sessions reaching anywhere near 800M shares!!! Ave vol. 12 mos. 739M, ytd 721M. There have been just NINE 800+M shares in 2013.

  1. new 52 week highs which have ranged from 121-709, fell despite the rally to 422 vs 512 vs 356 (also on a big rally???) vs 531 vs 328 vs 282 vs 584 vs 652 vs 410 vs 413 vs 560 vs 630. New lows dipped to 44 vs 56 vs 33 vs 36 vs 43 vs 50; recent high 98.
  2. Advance/Declines were positive for only the third day in seven to +2.2x vs -1.4x vs +1.7x vs +2.9x! vs-1.3x on NYSE and +1.4x vs -1.1x vs +1.5x vs +2.4x vs -1.4x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar at +2.5x vs -2.2x vs +1.8x vs +3.2x! vs -1.6x on NYSE and +1.7x vs -1.5x vs +1.3x vs +3.5x! vs -1.8x vs -2.3x! on Nasdaq.
  3. The Dow rose 0.8% vs -0.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.4% vs flat. All indices were positive. The Russell 2000 was +0.6% vs flat vs +0.3% vs +1%.
  4. NYSE Financials rose by +0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% two days, vs -0.7% vs -1.1%, hard hit brokers barely budged to +0.1% vs -1.2% vs flat vs +1.6%! vs -0.7% vs -1.1% vs -0.2%. BofA THE most active: -1% vs -1.3%! vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +1% vs -0.1% vs +3.8% – the range is $11.11, on 12/17 to $12.78 Thursday! Note: 11 cents is a 1% change!!!  GE -0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs +0.6%.
  5. Lastly volatility (S&P VIX), which gapped up on the open 3/18 (from a multi-year low!!!), traded in a very narrow range a day after swinging from 12.39 to 14.61 on a HUGE outside day closing at 12.77 which put it back below the 40/50 day m/a’s,13.74 vs 13.57 vs 13.99 vs 12.67 vs 14.39 vs 13.36 vs 11.30 (12 mo low), with a high of 15.40 last Thursday of 15.40, highest since 3/4. It closed at 13.74 +.17. What would you say to this: deal…or no deal?

Global equity markets mixed: Europe weak, Asia higher: UK -0.6% vs +0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs +0.3%; France -1.5%! vs +0.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.2% vs +1.2%; Germany -1.3%! vs +0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.8% vs +0.8%; Japan +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +1.7% vs +1.3% vs closed; Hang Seng +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.1% vs +1%; Kospi +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +1.5% vs -0.4% vs -1%; India closed vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.7%. U.S. stock futures slammed overnight and markets opening sharply lower: DOW -95!; SPX -10!; NDQ -22!!!

Bonds rallied modestly again yesterday and are soaring overnight: 10 yr Treasury 1.83% +11/16 vs 1.88% (old range was 2.06% to 1.85%), and the 30 yr’s 3.26% to 3.05%, closed 3.14%, now 3.08% +1-5/16! The long Tip, which made it to 0.60% last Tuesday broke out and is now 0.58% +1 point!, the high yield was 0.66%. Libor update: 0.243% 3 mos., 0.445% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed, with the problem countries sharply higher after a momentous drop): Germany 1.27% -8; UK 1.72% -7; Italy 4.72% +16!!!; Spain 5.03% +12!!!; Portugal 6.20% +13!!!; Greece 12.57%!!! +78!!! vs 11.66% +16 vs 11.37% vs 11.48% vs 11.21% vs 11.06% vs 10.58%. Big losses!!!

Gold closed lower on an ‘inside session’ a day after putting in the lowest level since 3/15: $1590, closing below $1600 for the first time in six days! It is well below resistance and way below the 1/17 high of $1699.90. It closed at $1597.30 -$-9.20, two days after an intraday high of $1616.50, almost to the 40 day!  2/21/13’s low was $1554.30 – not seen since May 2012! Last time it was below $1500 was Sept. 2011. Overnight it is UP $10.90 to $1608.20!!! $1600 is critical! The total breakdown through the 40/50/200 day m/a’s puts major resistance $1616-1671, with major support at $1600, a double bottom from 8/14-15, also a psychological level. Crude rallied sharply again closing at $96.34 +$1.53, almost at the session high of $96.65, highest since 2/20! It now has a range of $91.60-$96.65 since 3/12! The recent low is $89.33, lowest since 12/26, set on March 4. Overnight it is $95.66 -.68 – still well above the just converged and crossed 50 day ($94.44), and 40 day ($94.24)!

Due to the lateness today there will be no commentary. Thank you!

Have a great day!

TB

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