Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “People ask you for criticism but they only want praise.”
– Somerset Maugham
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Housing Starts in U.S. Cap Best Three Months in four Years as Permits Gain
*UBS $1.5 Billion Fine Marks Broadening of Libor Scandal to Include BRIBERY!!! – by the way on 2/12/12 UBS announced the resignation of Phil Gram as Vice Chmn…nice!
*Milan Judge Finds Four Banks Guilty in Swaps Trial – ah wonderful bankers!
*GM Is Buying 200 Million of Its Shares as U.S. Plans Exit Within 15 Months
*Global Stocks Climb to 17-Month High as Euro Rallies on German Confidence
*Wall Street Shareholders See Biggest Return Since -03 as Employees Suffer – this is what America has become while their mediocre at best CEO’s reap millions! Sick!
*FedEx Third-Quarter EPS May Miss Estimates as Second Quarter Hurt by Sandy – ?
*Banks in Europe Fined $6.1 Billion as Punishments Reach 25% of 2012 Profit –ONLY!
*Porsche Former Executives Charged With Market Manipulation Over Bid for VW
*Asmussen Says Bailout Fund Could Be Way to Wind Down or Capitalize Banks
*German Business Confidence Advances for Second Month on Recovery
*India Sees Children Starve to Death as $2 Billion Program Proves Defective – sad
*Greeks Struggling to Find Euros to Buy Heating Oil in Winter of Discontent – meanwhile bond yields there have fallen from 19.25% to 11.76% overnight! Revolt?
*Obama Said to Pick Biden to Draft Administration Response to Gun Violence
*U.K. Will Bring 3,800 Military Personnel Home From Afghanistan Next Year!
*Monti’s Resignation as Premier May Be Delayed as Italy Budget Vote Stalls
*Former Credit Suisse London Trader Sues Bank Saying Job made Him Depressed – got a hanky??? Don’t you feel sorry for this overpaid baby? Right Mitt?
IMPORTANT: Friday is options expiry, TUESDAY is cut-off for hedge funds yearend (T+3)…after that anything can…and most likely, will happen’ like yesterday!
Yesterday’s NYSE volume rose to 4.13B shares on a strong performance but somewhat typical of early in the week of options expiry! This contrasts to an average of the last six sessions of about 3.3B shares. REAL trades on the floor rose to an average 820M, still low but only the 2nd 800M+ share day in 21 sessions during which average was just 691M shares! Advance/declines and breadth were both STRONG! All indices up at least 1%+, if we weren’t so close to options expiry it would be significant (note that both Nasdaq indices and Russell 2000 were all up exactly the same: 1.5% (caution!)…and may still be IF the fiscal cliff is avoided by more than pushing it down the road. Obama offered up $400k vs $250k on the marginal rate and Boehner countered with a useless $1MM
Financials were among the biggest gainers – especially brokers…that may be very premature with Elizabeth Warren going on the Senate Banking Committee…let them have it – the management, not the shareholders this time!
Bond market was really beaten up yesterday but up modestly overnight: 10 yr note 1.80% vs 1.82%, 30 yr 2.98% vs 3.00%! TIPS continue to suffer…worst sector! The 30 yr TIP yield is is 0.38% (closed 0.40%) vs 0.37% vs 0.30% vs 0.32% vs 0.29% vs 0.26% vs 0.23% vs 0.22% – the record low. Bills slightly higher. The 1 month yields 0.02%. This raises the question: is bond weakness due to stock rally OR Euro crisis fears subsiding? TB votes for the latter: Greece fell to 11.76% overnight with Spain, Portugal, and Italy all declining…this could also be avoiding U.S. treasuries ahead of the fiscal cliff! Watch!!!
Gold was up slaughtered yesterday closingat $1670.70 -$27.90 with a low of $1662 – lowest since 8/31! It is way below the 40/50 day moving averages, but is up $3.40 overnight to $1674.10. Crude continued to slowly climb gaining 73 cents closing at $87.93. It is now slightly above the 40/50 day m/a’s. Overnight it is $88.32 +.38.
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…that is as tongue-in-cheek as TB gets! Norquist is an extremist right-wing ideologue who would sell out the entire country for his damned contract (with the devil!). But worse yet, he of the inflammatory quotes is also a director of the National Rifle Association! Read his bio from their site: NRA Norquist. Recall Grover is a lobbyist and no doubt represents the NRA too. It is far past the time to stop these right-wing extremists who want to arm the entire country with assault weapons and who longer represent the hunters of America and their tradition of gun safety.
Yesterday, Charlie Rose interviewed Mayor Bloomberg who clearly made the case for gun control. He said that when he endorsed Obama he was critical of his lack of drive on gun control but understood the politics. He also said he rejected Romney because this is not the same man who as governor of Massachusetts enacted gun control. Also, the crime rate in New York has fallen partially because of tougher gun control laws. A friend sent this link to a great explanation of the Second Amendment and why it is important that Obama choose the next Justice: 2nd Amendment explained
To the argument that there are already so many assault weapons out there that it will do no good to pass laws he posed whether it would be better to have even more. Of course, true to form people are out buying them while they still can. He also asked why do we allow the sale of armor-piercing ammo also designed for military use saying when was the last time you saw a deer wearing a bullet-proof vest?
Other prior fans are not so sure as they have to answer to their own kids over why they support them…hopefully many in Congress. Virginia Senator Mark Warner (D) told of this and said as a hunter he carries only three rounds in a clip (if you hit a deer you don’t want to leave it wounded). Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Cerberus Capital had announced they would sell their shares of Freedom Arms, manufacturer of the AR-15 and other semi-automatic weapons…come to find out it was because Cal PERS and STIRS, the largest pension funds threatened them with pulling out!
On PBS’s the Nightly News, they interviewed a gun shop owner asking about 100 round clips…he showed how simple and fast it is to reload…then said banning them would make no difference because you can change a 10 round clip just as fast. Ahem, let’s see, how difficult would it be to carry TWENTY 10 round clips instead of two? Bad logic!
Have a thoughtful day!
. . . – – – . . . (SOS!) . . . – – – . . . (SOS!) . . . – – – . . . (SOS!)
Volume rose to an above average 4.13B shares vs 3.44B vs 3.2B vs 3.34B vs 3.7B vs vs 3.64B from a recent low of 3.0B shares. NYSE shares executed without the aid of the ETN market also rose to an above average 820M shares vs 702M vs 667M vs 654M vs 695M vs vs 693M vs 593M vs 600M vs 616M vs 759M. There have been just 23 700M+ days since 8/3. Yesterday was the first 800M+ share day in the past 11 sessions! – average 691M shares! The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 681M. The average since 9/21 (12 mo high: 1.81B) is just 687M with just one 1B share day and just nine sessions above 800M shares! 133 of the last 178 sessions have been less than 800M shares (75%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 28 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), and just 22 have been above 900M – 757M is the 12 month ave and falling! Since 2/6 there have been 82 sessions less than 700M shares. 249 of the last 273 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (92%)! Since the crisis, this is the lowest average annual volume (range 588M-1.04B). Volume in the 90’s, during the boom: 315M shares. Volume = strength!
Advance/Declines were were very strong: +2.8x vs +2x vs -1.1x vs -2.3x vs -1.1x on NYSE and +2.6x vs +2.2x vs -1.1x vs -1.7x vs -1.5x on Nasdaq. Breadth was even more so: +6.1x! vs +4.2x vs -1.1x vs -2.3x vs +1.4x vs +2.2x on the NYSE and +3.3x vs +1.9x vs -1.1x vs -1.4x vs -1.2x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs nearly doubled to 292 vs 151 vs 95 vs 89 vs 209 (768 is cycle high, 28 low), as new lows slipped to 55 vs 74 vs 79 vs 84 vs 55. The ratio is: +5.3x! vs +2x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs +3.9x. Recent high was +7x! The S&P VIX fell again to 15.57 vs 16.34 vs 17.00 (highest since 11/15!) vs 16.56 vs 15.95. 12 mo. ave. is 17.95.
Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow +0.9% vs +0.8% vs -0.3% vs -06% vs flat; Dow Transports +1.6% vs +0.8% vs +0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.3%;Dow Utilities +0.9% vs +1.4% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.1%; S&P 500 +1.2% vs +1.2% vs -0.4% vs -0.6% vs flat; Nasdaq Composite +1.5% vs +1.3% vs -0.7% vs -0.7% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq 100 +1.5% vs +1.4% vs -1% vs -0.8% vs -0.3%; Russell 2000 +1.5% vs +1.4% vs -0.1% vs -0.6% vs -0.7%; NYSE Financials +1.4% vs +1.4% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% (KBW Banks +1.9% vs +2.8% vs -0.3% vs -0.6% vs +0.4%; Nasdaq Banks +1.4% vs +1.7% vs -0.4% vs -0.6% vs -0.5%; NYSE Brokers +2.4%! vs +2% vs +0.1% vs +0.3% vs +0.4%.NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC +3.3% vs +4% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs +1%; C +0.8% bd +4.1%!!! GE -1.1% vs +1.4%. Does this make sense to you? Not to TB.
Global equities strong for a second day! FTSE +0.5% vs +0.4% vs -0.5% vs -0.1% vs -0.2%; CAC 40 +0.4% vs flat vs -0.4% vs flat vs -0.1%; DAX +0.2% vs +0.4% vs flat vs +0.3% vs -0.3%;Nikkei +2.4%!!! vs +1% vs +0.9% vs -0.1% vs +1.7%; Hang Seng +0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs -0.3%; Korean KOSPI +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -0.6% vs -0.4% vs +4.4%;Indian Sensex +0.6% vs +0.6% vs -0.3% vs +0.5% vs -0.7%. U.S. stock futures higher but mid-range on session: DOW +29; SPX +2.40; NDQ +7.75.
U.S. treasury bonds pounded again yesterday, up slightly overnight: 10 yr 1.80% vs 1.82% – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.98% vs 3.00%. Long TIP 0.38% vs 0.40% – 0.22% record low!The 5 yr TIP yields –1.48%; 10 yr -.75%.T-Bills: 0.02% 1 month;0.05% 3 months; 0.10% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.26%. 3 mo. Libor 0.31%; 6 mo. 0.509%!!! European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-bench: 1.43% +2; Japan 0.76% +1; Italy 4.38% -6; Spain 5.24% -3; Greece 11.74%!!! -77!!! vs 12.54% vs 12.73% vs 12.70% vs 12.64% vs 12.29% vs 12.88% vs 13.35% vs 13.92% vs 14.72% …on 9/20: 19.75%!!!; Portugal 6.82% -6; Ireland 4.43% -2.
Gold was up slaughtered yesterday closing at $1670.70 -$27.90 with a low of $1662 – lowest since 8/31! It is way below the 40/50 day moving averages, but is up $3.40 overnight to $1674.10. Crude continued to slowly climb gaining 73 cents closing at $87.93. It is now slightly above the 40/50 day m/a’s. Overnight it is $88.32 +.38.