12/14/12…the death of the party

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Everything comes gradually at its appointed hour.”

 – Ovid…i.e. good things come to those who wait.(old English Proverb) – maybe…

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline More than Forecast in November: -0.3% vs -0.2%!

*German-French Sparring Over Europe Future Caps Third Year of Crisis Fight

*Commodities Rise With China Stocks on Recovery signs; U.S. Futures Climb

*SAC Ex-Manager Martoma Said to Be Offered Informant Deal in Insider Case

*Negative Yield of Euro Crisis Hits Jobless Spaniard to Munich Fund Manager – Heed!

*Constancio Says ECB Needs More Than 500 New Staff for Supervision of Banks

*All Portugal Wants for Christmas Is Equal Bailout Treatment – or some teeth!

*ECB Sees Risks to Financial Stability Remaining as Tensions Ease Tangibly

*Iraq Oil Boom Sets Supply Challenge for Saudi’s al-Naimi – social funding issue!

*Florida Caregivers Bloodied Patients as Complaints of Abuse Drew Laughter – Abused

*Egypt Faces Mass Rallies as Activists Protest Before Vote on Constitution

*Boehner’s Rhetorical Line on budget Shows Reluctance to Give in Too Soon – fools!

*Panetta Signs Order Allowing Turkey to Obtain Patriot Missiles – heating up!

*Rice Withdrawal Clears Way for Obama to Revamp His National Security Team

Yesterday’s NYSE volume slipped again as any real rally proved illusive…just 3.34B shares vs 3.7B vs 3.64B but up from 3.0B and 3.11B. REAL trades on the floor fell even more to 654M vs 695M vs 693M vs 593M – lowest since 11/23’s low for the year of 329M shares. Advance/declines and breadth (NYSE slightly positive) were both negative. The Dow and S&P 500 were both off 0.6% vs FLAT while the two Nasdaq indices fell 0.7% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.6%…so much for the FOMC statement. Apple was 7.5 points of the 20.5 point loss on the 100. Growth is not ‘in.’

Bond market closed weaker again and is flat overnight: 10 yr note 1.73%, 30 yr 2.90%. TIPS continued to fade…watch out as they are in play! The 30 yr TIP yield rose to 0.32% vs 0.29% vs 0.26% vs 0.23% vs 0.22% – the record low.

Gold was DOWN $21.10 yesterday closingat $1696.80 following a session low of $1690.70! It is well below the 40/50 day moving averages,but up slightly overnight to $1697.90 +$1.10. Crude lost 66 cents closing at $85.89, with a session low of $85.81. It too remains well below both the 40/50 day m/a’s. Overnight it is up 86 cents to $86.75.

– – –  . . .  – – –

(Don’t get upset when you read this…just think about it, then decide. TB)

…old timers like TB recall the guy on New Years day that was ‘the life of the party’ the night before…what fun he was…to watch! This was the era of the fifty’s and sixty’s where social drinking bordered (?) on alcoholism.

But today’s addiction is to power (and satisfying rich donors) over the ability to reason. You know what reason is…that which separates us from animals (plus our opposable thumbs). But this is not the Age of Reason…it is ‘something else.’ TB warned to be careful what you wish for…and we are now there!

The GOP has been hijacked by extremists and House Speaker Boehner is either a sympathizer or simply trying to hold his party together…and his position as speaker! Meanwhile his deputy, Majority Leader Eric Cantor continues to beat the drums to death (remember what the drum line did to OWS!), while Senator McConnell remains his stubborn self in that chamber making even Harry Reid look not so bad.

TB believes Boehner would love to kick Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann off the House Permanent Intelligence Committee (hopefully as she has destroyed what little credibility she had with her lunatic fringe comments…despite which she spent more on her campaign for a second time than any other House candidate…and then only squeaked through thanks to redistricting…more on that later), but can’t as she is attempting to get a coalition together to challenge HIM, so despite throwing off at least three tea partiers so far, he has left her unscathed for the moment…further hurting his leadership position.

So Boehner talks tough…marginal tax rates are off the table when he holds no trump cards…zero…and nearly half of his party disagrees with their position on taxes, being prudent individuals. This is absurd right after you lost an election due to extremist positions on gay marriage, abortion, and voter ID propositions, all of which went down to defeat. The party’s strength remains in the South but even that is waning and when the cuts come that will only get worse.

Meanwhile it is unfathomable to have meetings with Obama and then walk to a microphone and say nothing new and dig in yet again on tax rates. Obviously something is brewing and while Boehner tries to hold sway with his party he is further losing credibility with voters…ah but the wealthy still see him as their champion…after all he wants the other 98% to take the hit while they continue to widen the wealth gap.

They are now surrounded by the enemy…even those in their own party who have come to their senses…think with your brain, not your wallet, should be the motto.

Lastly, Senators McCain, Graham, and Snow, please step forward and accept your place on the Hall of Shame. You destroyed the character of Susan Rice, have not proved she did anything wrong, and ignored the sworn statement of General Petraeus. What fools!

She was interviewed last night by Brian Williams and sounded intelligent (despite McCain saying she was ‘too stupid’ to be Secretary of State), sounded as a voice of reason who was shocked at the McCarthy methods used (TB’s words not hers), was more concerned about how the focus went to her rather than the four people who died (recall McCain missed a briefing while holding a press conference to gripe about not being briefed…and how he and Graham rushed to the mikes after each briefing to lambast the Obama administration and Rice specifically…they were not seeking facts as they didn’t even wait for all the evidence to be heard…a sad rush to judgement).

TB knows some of you believe she should have told the truth…yet it appears that that is exactly what she did…yet they remain unconvinced…these same people who allowed the Bush administration to get Powell (who had been an opponent of the WMD theory in Iraq), to not only tell the American people and the UN, lies, and let that go unchallenged, and by doing so get us into a war that we won militarily but was a PR nightmare in which the real winners were the oil companies, Halliburton, and Lockheed Martin. More importantly we destroyed the balance of power Saddam created and now are paying the price with Iraq, while the rest of the Middle East is in turmoil…some Arab Spring! Well done!

Stand idly by and we will usher in another disturbing McCarthy era…recall Bachmann’s comments about the State Department being infiltrated by Muslims. That is just the start.

Have a wonderful weekend…don’t shop until you drop…it won’t change a thing!


. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

Volume declined yesterday to 3.34B shares vs 3.7B vs vs 3.64B from a recent low of 3.0B shares. NYSE shares executed without the aid of the ETN market also fell and remain weak at  654M shares vs 695M vs vs 693M vs 593M vs 600M vs 616M vs 759M. There have been just 21 700M+ days since 8/3. The high ytd was 9/21’s 1.8B shares. Since 6/29 just 18 sessions have surpassed 800M shares, mostly down days. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 680M. The average for 2012 is just 761M shares and since 6/29 just 694M shares– WEAK!!! 131 of the last 175 sessions have been less than 800M shares (75%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 27 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), and just 22 have been above 900M – 764M is the 12 month ave and falling! Since 11/1/11 there have been just 18, 1B share days…14 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been 81 sessions less than 700M shares. 247 of the last 270 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (91%)!

Advance/Declines were solidly negative: -2.3x vs -1.1x vs +2.1x vs +1.2x vs +1.2x on NYSE and -1.7x vs -1.5x vs +2.5x vs +1.4x vs -1.1x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar: NYSE: -2.3x vs +1.4x vs +2.2x vs +1.2x vs +2.6x on NYSE and -1.4x vs -1.2x vs +3.6x vs +1.8x vs -1.3x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs collapsed to 89 vs 209 vs 218 vs 144 vs 128 (768 is cycle high, 28 low), while new lows rose to 84 vs 55 vs 55 vs 71 vs 60 vs 71 vs 78. The ratio remains positive, but…+1.1x vs +3.9x vs +4x vs +2x vs +2.1x. Recent high was +7x! The S&P VIX also rose to 16.56! vs 15.95 vs 15.57 vs 16.05 vs 15.90.

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow -06% vs flat vs +0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.6%; Dow Transports +0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs +1.1% vs +0.2%;Dow Utilities -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs flat for a 2 days; S&P 500 -0.6% vs flat vs +0.7% vs flat vs +0.3%; Nasdaq Composite -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +1.5% vs +0.3% vs -0.4%; Nasdaq 100 -0.8% vs -0.3% vs +1.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.6%; Russell 2000 -0.6% vs -0.7% vs +1.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.1%; NYSE Financials -0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% (KBW Banks -0.6% vs +0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +1.1%; Nasdaq Banks -0.6% vs -0.5% vs +1% vs +0.3% vs flat; NYSE Brokers +0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.2% vs -1.1% vs +0.5%.NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -0.7% vs +1% vs -0.6% vs -0.6% vs +1.7%. No other leaders. Why all the fuss about financials? Because as they go, so goes the market!

Global equities mixed: FTSE -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.1%; CAC 40 flat vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.7% vs -0.3%; DAX +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.3%;Nikkei -0.1% vs +1.7% vs +0.6% vs -0.1% vs +0.1%; Hang Seng +0.7% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +0.2% vs +0.4%; Korean KOSPI -0.4% vs +4.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.4% vs flat;Indian Sensex +0.5% vs -0.7% vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.1%. U.S. stock futures up near top of range, except NDQ near lows: DOW +31; SPX +2.50; NDQ OFF 0.50!

U.S. treasury bonds closed WEAK for a second day, up slightly overnight: 10 yr 1.73% – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.90% +1/16. Long TIP 0.32% vs 0.29%!!! – 0.22% record low!The 5 yr TIP yields –1.52%; 10 yr -.80%.T-Bills strong again: 0.02% 1 month; 0.05% 3 months; 0.10% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.27%. 3 mo. Libor 0.308%; 6 mo. 0.511%.  European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-bench: 1.35% +1; Japan 0.73% +1; Italy 4.57% -6; Spain 5.34% -3; Greece 12.70% +3 vs 12.64% vs 12.29% vs 12.88% vs 13.35% vs 13.92% vs 14.72% …on 9/20: 19.75%!!!; Portugal 6.92% -14; Ireland 4.54% +2.

Gold closed DOWN $21.10 at $1696.80 with an intraday LOW of $1690.70  – well below both the 40-50 day m/a’s. Overnight it is $1697.90 +$1.10.Crude lost 66 cents closing at $85.89 and is well below the 40/50 day m/a’s. Still skidding along the bottom! Overnight it is $86.75 +.86.



  1. Yarnman said

    TB–In your lifetime and mine, there has never been such divided (polarized) government. But this republic experienced similar division in its earliest days, and survived gloriously. Washington, a trained surveyor, was considered too dumb to be president by Thomas Jefferson, the Virginia aristocrat. Yet, when Washington became president, he knew that Jefferson was writing tracts under an alias to excoriate Washington, despite the president’s reputation as an outstanding military leader. Jefferson would kowtow to Washington’s face, however, but Washington remained silent, knowing that Jefferson was fomenting dissension and division. So we see Obama, as cool as Washington, in the face of the McCains, Grahams, Bachmanns, and Palins. Jefferson died owing millions and disgraced by history for impregnating his slave mistress. Washington is revered as the father of his country. The lesson from this–be patient. The Tea Partiers will eventually be disgraced, I truly believe. (Example: McCarthy, or Wallace, or Thurmond) Meanwhile, I stay alert for opportunities for profit, short or long, and enjoy the grandkids!–Yarnman

    • traderbill said

      Well stated…as always, Yarnman!!!

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