…12/12/12

FOMC Meeting today!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*U.K. Unemployment Gauge Drops Most in 11 Years as Claims Unexpectedly Fall

*Yen Weakens to Eight-Month Low Before Fed as Metals Clibm; Oil Advances

*JPMorgan Pressed by SEC on Prop Trading Before Dimon Disclosed Whale Loss – !

*Greece Plans to Repurchase $41.5 Billion of Debt to Meet Aid Package Terms

*Wal-Mart CEO Duke Says Lower Supplier Prices, Factory Safety Are Compatible

*HSBC Mexico Branches Said to Be Traffickers’ Favorites for Laundering Cash – !!!

*California Psychiatrists Paid $400,000 Show Bidding-War Cost to Taxpayers – !!!

*McDonald’s $8 Man Working for $8.75 Million CEO Shows U.S. Pay Gap Surging -!

*Obama Wins Almost 50% Republicans in Poll Showing President Having Mandate – !!!

*Putin Backs Efforts to Repatriate $1 Trillion by Ending Offshore Haven Use – hmmm   

Monday’s NYSE volume rose to a mediocre 3.64B shares from 3.0B vs 3.11B and still well below average. REAL trades on the floor also rose but fell shy of even 700M shares to 693M vs 593M – lowest since 11/23’s low for the year of 329M shares. Advance/declines and breadth were both positive by 2+ times. The Dow and S&P 500 were up about 0.7% while the to Nasdaq indices AND the Russell 2000 all rose 1.5 % (highly suspect), while Transports and Utilities were barely positive, +0.1%.  

Bond market closed weaker and is off slightly again overnight: 10 yr note 1.67%, 30 yr 2.86%. TIPS finally took a hit the 30 yr TIP yield rose to 0.26% vs 0.23% which was just 1bp’s off the record low.

Gold was off $4.80 closingat $1709.60, in dull trading with a tight range. It remains well below the 40/50 day moving averages,while Crude gained 23 cents closing at $85.79, just above the lowest close since 11/15, and also remains well below both the 40/50 day m/a’s. Overnight Gold is up $5.40 cents and Crude is up 48 cents – boring!

– – –  . . .  – – –

…today is a potpourri day beginning with the fact that today is the last time all three number sets in the date will be the same…all 12’s – for the next 88 years and one month. We will have to content ourselves with 1/3/13, and get just one a year for a long time. Kind of interesting after the string we have had. Can’t wait for it to happen again!

Taking a tip from Wall Street: a man convicted of fraud awaits sentencing and since he has swindled people since he was a child the prosecutor is asking for a life sentence so he never rips off anyone else…this in Minneapolis! Once again trying to beat the rap, he has offered to pay $19 million for a get out of jail pass. Why not? Isn’t that what the banks are doing nearly every day…but theirs is worse as they continue doing it! But the best part is that it isn’t even their money! This from the group, along with the other billionaires who insist everyone has to have ‘skin in the game’ – we all do, guys, OUR hides which you are trashing by your actions…and you Congress, sit idly by as both parties eagerly accept their donations…just as they did from FNMA and FHLMC while the GOP denounced them even as they pocketed the money and the Dems praised them. Note they were smart though…they gave money to the Dems in the House which they controlled and to GOP leaders in the Senate. Such hypocrisy from the right! By the way, Dubya signed off on that ‘everyone should own a home concept.’ (Also FNMA and FHLMC CEO’s continue to be paid Wall Street scale each earning $6 million in 2011…TB will do both jobs for $1 million…take that greedy idiots! Now they are threatening to take it away and if so, the housing party is over, we go into a deep recession and heads roll in the next election…it is unthinkable and when it is that, it isn’t going to happen. The most that can happen is a lower cap on interest deductions…$1 million is a joke and a very bad one…$50,000?

They are also talking about limiting either charitable deductions or putting a cap on total deductions which would destroy all those faith-based groups that Romney adores. Wonder how much he would donate if he wasn’t getting something for it? Something we all may have to ask of ourselves.

We are living in a sick world and as one of the top stories today reads while employees at McDonald’s make $8 an hour the CEO made $8.75M! Sounds about right…and fair according to WalMart execs. If you think a)these are geniuses, or b) someone else couldn’t do the job for far less, you are c)deluding yourself. If, this were the old days…being the 1980’s and earlier REAL shareholders would scream and threaten, not stand idly by while they reap the rewards and we pay their fines and for their mistakes and when they are found to have screwed up they walk away with more millions. Free-market capitalism, TB’s derriere!

Over the weekend, TB was cleaning out his office and found a lot of old articles and was surprised to see the number that were critical of the demi-god Milton Friedman and his view of free-market capitalism…which when  business is dominated by a few big companies…banking in particular…and small business is defined as hedge funds and private equity firms due to their small number of employees…they the great job creators!

But there are the Larry Kudlow’s and other non-schooled economists who espouse the Austrian school and of course Adam Smith who would be alarmed at the use of his name or associating it with this form of capitalism – a word he never knew or uttered! The GOP still loves Arthur Laffer and his flawed ‘Reaganomics’ or supply-side/trickle down approach. Just take the ‘le’ off of trickle and you have it…or think of another meaning for the term…both are applicable.

Interesting survey of GOP voters today…nearly 50% believe Obama has a mandate!!! That’s Republican voters…keep that in mind, Boehner, Ryan, and Cantor…don’t even ask McConnell, he lives in a cave.

How about that for a mornings work?

Have a great ‘hump’ day!

TB

  . . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

Volume finally rose but only to 3.64B shares from 3.0B shares. NYSE shares executed without the aid of the ETN market also also rose but to a still weak 693M shares vs 593M vs 600M vs 616M vs 759M. There have been just 21 700M+ days since 8/3. The high ytd was 9/21’s 1.8B shares. Since 6/29 just 18 sessions have surpassed 800M shares, mostly down days. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 680M. The average for 2012 is just 763M shares and since 6/29 just 696M shares– WEAK!!! 129 of the last 173 sessions have been less than 800M shares (71%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 27 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), and just 22 have been above 900M – 767M is the 12 month ave. and falling! Since 11/1/11 there have been just 18, 1B share days…14 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been 79 sessions less than 700M shares. 245 of the last 268 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (91%)! Don’t play here…yearend is coming!

Advance/Declines were moedestly positive: +2.1x vs +1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x on NYSE and +2.5x vs +1.4x vs -1.1x vs 1:1 vs -1.3x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar: NYSE: +2.2x vs +1.2x vs +2.6x vs +1.2x vs +2.3x on NYSE and +3.6x vs +1.8x vs -1.3x vs +2.3x vs +1.1x on Nasdaq, where breadth is distorted by Apple! New 52 week highs rose sharply to 218 vs 144 vs 128 vs 116 vs 130 (768 is cycle high, 28 low), while new lows fell to 55 vs 71 vs 60 vs 71 vs 78 vs 71. The ratio remains positive: +4x vs +2x vs +2.1x vs +1.6x vs +1.9x. Recent high was +7x! The S&P VIX dropped to 15.57 vs 16.05 vs 15.90 vs 16.58 vs 16.46 vs 17.12.

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow +0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.6% vs +0.3% vs +0.6%; Dow Transports +0.1% vs +1.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.9%;Dow Utilities +0.1% vs flat for a 2 days vs -0.3% vs +1.4%; S&P 500 +0.7% vs flat vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.2%; Nasdaq Composite +1.5% vs +0.3% vs -0.4% vs +0.5% vs -0.8%; Nasdaq 100 +1.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.6% vs +0.7% vs -1.1%; Russell 2000 +1.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.2%; NYSE Financials +0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs +0.9% (KBW Banks +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +1.1% vs +0.3% vs +1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +1% vs +0.3% vs flat for 2 days vs +0.3%; NYSE Brokers -0.2% vs -1.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.2% vs +0.9%.NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -0.6% vs -0.6% vs +1.7% vs -0.1% vs +5.7% vs +1.1%; GE +0.6%. BAC holding above $10, closed $10.51.

Global equities better on UK unemployment drop and… FTSE +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.3%; CAC 40 -0.1% vs +0.7% vs -0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.2%; DAX +0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.3% vs -0.3% vs +1%;Nikkei +0.6% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.8%; Hang Seng +0.8% vs +0.2% vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs -0.1%; Korean KOSPI +0.6% vs +0.4% vs flat vs +0.4% vs +0.1%;Indian Sensex -0.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.5%. U.S. stock futures up slightly, at session highs: DOW +18; SPX +2.20; NDQ +6.

U.S. treasury bonds closed weaker and slipping again overnight: 10 yr 1.67% -1/8 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.86% -3/8. Long TIP 0.26% vs 0.24% -5/16 – 0.22% record low!The 5 yr TIP yields –1.54%; 10 yr -.89%.T-Bills: 0.05% 1 month; 0.08% 3 months; 0.12% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.29%. 3 mo. Libor 0.31%; 6 mo. 0.514%.  European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-bench: 1.34% +2; Japan 0.69% -1; Italy 4.64% -6; Spain 5.35% -8; Greece 12.29% -12!!! vs 12.88% vs 13.35% vs 13.92% vs 14.72% …on 9/20: 19.75%; Portugal 7.20-% -10; Ireland 4.52% -10. A 4th BIG DROP in GREECE!!!

Gold closed -$4.80 at $1709.60 It had a narrow inside day and remains well below the 40/50 day moving averages,while Crude gained 23 cents closing at $85.79, just above the lowest since 11/15 and well below the 40/50 day m/a’s. Skidding along the bottom! Overnight Gold is $1715 +$5.40. Crude is up 48 cents remaining below the 40/50 day.

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