11/14/12…if at first you don’t secede…

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Forgive many things in others; nothing in yourself.”

– Ausonius


Bloomberg Top Stories:


*King Says Bank of England Keeping Asset Purchases as Option to Aid Growth – ?

*Bank of America Investment Bankers Said to Bristle at Client-Meeting Quota – Ha!

*Yen Weakens on Stimulus Speculation; U.S. Futures Rise as Treasuries Drop

*U.K. Jobless Claims Rise at Fastest Pace in Year as Labor Market Weakens

*Italian Borrowing Costs Drop to Two-Year Low as Demand for Debt Increases

*Portuguese Economy Shrinks for Eighth Straight Quarter as Austerity Bites

*Belgium Morphs to Hero From Zero as Investors Hunt for Yield – and hunt, and hunt

*Americans Let Tax-Exempt Firm Keep $600 Million Profit Flying First Class

(American Bureau of Shipping certifies ships, non-profit, so is U.S. Polo! – FIX IT!!!)

*Petraeus Drama Competes for Obama’s Focus With Fiscal Cliff Negotiations

*Spanish Workers Strike Against Austerity as Protests Planned Across Europe


On Monday for the first time TB can recall, the Dow, S&P 500 and BOTH Nasdaq indices were FLAT (less than 0.05%), yesterday all indices were down except Dow Utilities which rose 0.4%, but for only the second time in eight sessions, for a net loss of 7.1%! Total NYSE volume rose to a weak 3.44B vs 2.92B vs 3.57B vs 3.76B vs 4.32B shares. Floor volume also came back to a weak 677M shares vs 292M shares, the new 12 month low,vs 740M vs 758M shares vs 874M, highest since 10/19!

Bond market was modestly higher with the long bond up 3/8, but is off nearly twice that overnight: 10 yr note 1.62%, 30 year 2.76%.  3 mo.Libor steady at 0.31% while the 6 mo. dropped to 0.52%!!!

Both Gold and Crude closed slightly weaker. Gold is off $2 overnight while Crude is back to the prior day’s close, $85.57. That is bad news for Crude which has done nothing for three days following a positive ‘key reversal’ (higher high lower low, close above prior day’s high), following an ‘inside day’ a day after a low of $84.05, lowest since 7/11. The recent selloff was triggered by a negative key reversal.

– – –  . . .  – – –

(Had planned to offer some suggestions for the budget but this came up and so postponing that discussion until tomorrow. TB)

…try to throw a monkeywrench into the machinery (even though they have already gummed it up). Petitions to ‘peacefully secede have been filed by residents of at least 20 states…how much more un-American than that can one get?

As the founding fathers of the United States of America made clear in the Declaration of Independence in 1776:

“When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.”

“…Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or abolish it, and institute new Government…”

(Note that all of the petitions are identical…hmm…grassroots or Karl Rove?)

Here is an excerpt from a letter from a Texan urging secession (they have the largest number of signers but no state has reached the 25,000 criteria…yet:

“We must contest every single inch of ground and delay the baby-murdering, tax-raising socialists at every opportunity. But in due time, the maggots will have eaten every morsel of flesh off of the rotting corpse of the Republic, and therein lies our opportunity… Why should Vermont and Texas live under the same government? Let each go her own way in peace, sign a free trade agreement among the states and we can avoid this gut-wrenching spectacle every four years.”

If you think that is humorous or worse, think what that makes you? It is sick! Despicable! Disgusting…and it is guaranteed by the first amendment…isn’t that special? If we don’t get our way then we want out! At least the secessionists that led us to the Civil War were doing it for sound economic reasons…not so these ideologues. Hopefully those disappointed by the outcome of the election will read this and see that they are not one of these people…one can hope. It most certainly is not going to happen so they are merely venting, and being divisive!

TB reads the comments to op-eds in the local paper. The liberals are respectful almost to a letter, while the right wing extremists resort to the type of language above. Do  you want to be a member of this group? Only if you are a true Macchiavellian.

Makes you proud to be an American doesn’t it?

The GOP is spending time and money on focus groups to find out what went wrong with their plan to dump Obama. Kathleen Parker has written several omniscient articles on the subject lately including one on how the GOP torpedoed Romney. Here is a link to her column on what they need to do: Kathleen Parker/GOP   From the article:

…”the real problem is the Republican Party, which would not be recognizable to its patron saint, Ronald Reagan. The party doesn’t need a poll or a focus group. It needs a mirror.” That is why TB left the party years ago! Party of Reagan? Pullease!

So we are headed for the dreaded ‘fiscal cliff’, not a thing of nature, not of beauty, but created by a dysfunctional Congress. One which insists it is the fault of the ‘tax and spend’ Democrats when it was the result of eight years of stupidity when a GOP Congress pushed through spending and tax cuts (the Dems supported the former but not the second round which was the most problematic). Then they sent it to Bush who signed everything that crossed his desk and added his legacy, Medicare Part D without funding it, without controls on costs – especially on prescription drugs.

We keep hearing that the Dems had a majority for the first two years of Obama’s campaign…it was about two months before that vanished in the Senate when Lieberman and one other turned Independent, and the Senate remains in gridlock today while the House is (was) in GOP hands and that led us to the cliff. We paid these people, both parties, well to do a job, and they all failed us…without repercussions except the most flagrant offenders. Even so, Michele Bachmann and a few other extremists were re-elected. It’s the American way! My congressman, right or wrong.

On the Gen. Petraeus scandal. We now know that he resigned under pressure. On Face the Nation Sunday, two enlightened conservatives, David Gergen and Peggy Noonan surprised TB (positively) by saying that he should be allowed to continue as head of the CIA. TB agrees. What is there to blackmail him over now? Hey, we could replace him with a politician…that would be like playing Craps with loaded dice!

As the Europeans do…get over it! He is a good man and what happened, once fully investigated is between him and his wife.

Have a great Hump Day! All downhill from here.


. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

Volume climbed sharply from Monday’s 12-month low, but remains weak! All indices were down except Dow Utilities, the only positive (+0.4%) after it had been down 6 of the last 7 sessions, regardless of whether broad market was up or down. NYSE volume 3.44B shares vs 2.53B vs 3.57B vs 3.76B vs 4.32B. On 9/1 volume hit 4.56B shares, high of the year. NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market came back to a weak 677M shares from a 12-month low of 292M shares vs 740M shares vs 758M vs 874M, highest since 10/19. There have been just 14 700M+ days since 8/3. The high ytd was 9/21’s 1.8B shares – due to a quadruple witching and an S&P rebalancing. Since 6/29 just 15 sessions have surpassed 800M shares, mostly down days. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 674B. The average for 2012 is just 770M shares and since 6/29 just 697M shares– WEAK!!! 113 of the last 154 sessions have been less than 800M shares (73%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 24 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 9/21’s high for 2012 of 1.8B (5B including ETNs) and just 20 have been above 900M – 782M is the 12 month average. Since 11/1/11 there have been just 17, 1B share days…13 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been 67 sessions less than 700M shares. 231 of the last 249 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (93%)!

Advance/Declines were negative for a FOURTH straight session: -1.1x vs -1.1x vs -1.1x vs -2.7x vs -4.3x!!! on NYSE and -2.1x! vs -1.2x vs 1:1 vs -2.8x vs -5.7x!!! on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar: NYSE: -2.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.1x vs -3.4x! vs -9.8x!!! vs +4x! on NYSE and -2.2x! vs -1.1x vs -1.1x vs -3.8x! vs -7.6x!!! on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs were nearly halved to 66 vs 116 vs 99 vs 115 vs 108 vs 216; (768 is cycle high), while new lows surged to 286 vs 201 vs 244 vs 215 vs 196 vs 69 vs 97, recent low was 48. The ratio is negative for a fifth straight day: -4.3x vs -1.7x vs -2.5x vs -1.9x vs -1.8x, recent high was +7x! The S&P VIX however barely budged (?) to 16.65 vs 16.68 vs 18.61??? The 12-month low was 13.32 on 8/17 while the 1012 high is 27.73 on June 4.

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow -0.5% vs FLAT vs FLAT vs -0.9% vs -2.4%; Dow Transports  -0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.7% vs -1% vs -1.9%;Dow Utilities UP 0.4% vs -0.9% vs -0.7% vs -0.2% vs -2.2% vs flat; S&P 500 -0.4% vs FLAT vs +0.2% vs -1.2% vs -2.4%; Nasdaq Composite -0.7% vs FLAT vs +0.3% vs -1.4% vs -2.5%; Nasdaq 100 -0.8% vs FLAT vs +0.5% vs -1.5% vs -2.6%; Russell 2000 -0.6% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs -1.4% vs -2.6%; NYSE Financials -0.6% vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs -0.9% vs -2.7% (KBW Banks -1.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs -4.6%; Nasdaq Banks -1.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs -1.1% vs -3.5%; NYSE Brokers -1.6%! vs +1.2%!?! vs -0.6% vs -0.9% vs -4.3%.NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -0.6% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs +2.6%? vs -6.3%!!! vs +2% vs -1%, no other leaders.; last seven days: BAC -5.3%.

European  equities weak, Asia better, India closed: FTSE -0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.4% vs +0.2%; CAC 40 -0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.7%; DAX -0.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.3% vs -0.9% vs +0.4%;Nikkei +0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.9%! vs -0.9%! vs -1.5%!; Hang Seng +1.2%? vs -1.1%! vs +0.2% vs -0.9% vs -2.4%!!!; Korean KOSPI +0.2% vs -0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs -1.2%!;Indian Sensex closed vs -0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.9% vs -0.3%. U.S. stock futures up but well off highs: DOW +52; SPX +6.20; NDQ +16.50…all are almost exact opposites of yesterday morning!?!

U.S. treasury bonds rallied about 3/8 in the long end Tuesday but lost that and more overnight: 10 yr 1.62% vs 1.59*% – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.75% vs 2.73%. Long TIP 0.28% vs 0.25% – the new record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.46% vs -1.49%; 10 yr -.85% vs 0.88%.T-Bills: 0.13% 1 month; 0.10% 3 months; 0.14% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.30%. 3 mo. Libor 0.31%; 6 mo. 0.52%! On 9/18 they were 0.38% and 0.67% respectively. European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-bench: 1.35% +1; Japan 0.73% +1; Italy 4.92% -3; Spain 5.82% -1; Greece 17.26% -12…on 9/20: 19.75%!!!; Portugal 8.58% +1;Ireland 4.62% -1.

Gold’s intraday high on Friday of $1739.40 was highest since 10/19. It closed at $1724.90 -$3.60. At the high it was near the 50 day moving average which was last visited on August 15th! It closed at $1796 on 10/4, highest since 2/29 and it has lost $71 since. 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6/11. RES at $1743, the 50 day, $1743, the 40 day, CROSSING!MAJOR SUP at $1671, the 200 day. 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1722.50 – $2.20. Crude closed little changed at $85.38 -.19 sideways for two days following a ‘key reversal’ (higher high, lower low, close above prior day’s high), the last time this happened it was a negative one which brought us all the way back down to an intraday low of $84.05, lowest since 7/11 and way below the 40/50/200 day where it has resided since 9/19! RES at the 40 day (89.18), 50 day (90.69), and the 200 day (94.52), all falling! Overnight it is $85.56 +.18. Minor support at $83.65, then $77.28, the 2012 low!!!


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: