11/6/12…E day: do you feel any better?

TB Saiz: your vote just cancels my vote so why don’t we both agee not to vote today? (Besides I already voted absentee!)

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Dance like it hurts, love like you need money, work when people are watching.” – Scott Adams…how do we know what it is like to need money?

 Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Rise With U.S. Futures Before Election; Aussie Strengthens on Rate

*Million-Dollar Swaps Traders Replaced With Machines at UBS – can sales be far behind? Think about it…make sales assistants registered reps and let them send out the inventory positions…isn’t that what sales has become? TB

*Greece Faces Cliffhanger Vote on Austerity Plan as General Strike Begins

*Fired Bankers’ U.K. Suits Fail as Employment Judges Tire of Bonus Claims – HAH!

*London Financial Jobs Poised to Fall to 20-Year Low in 2013, Study Shows – and that means that banks do NOT have to over-leverage again…but they will if we let them!

*Morgan Stanley’s Kelleher Faces Profitability Drive Alone as Taubman Exits

*U.S. Pledges to Avoid Falling Off Fiscal Cliff as G-20 Warns on Austerity – why do they,  the Economist, and others see the risks of cutting budget to much? Eh, Mitt?

*Green Careers Depending on Obama Re-Election as Fiscal Cliff Looms

*Prostate Patients Suffer as Industry Succumbs to Money Over Best Treatment

*Obama Mirror Image of Hoover as Depression Lessons Bring Economic Recovery

(yes, Mitt, say what you want but this IS a recovery, stop with the gloom and doom TB)

*Putin Fires Defense Minister After Corruption Prove Over $95 Billion Fraud (Aren’t you shocked?…shocked…there is corruption in Russia…from the top down! TB)

*Women Political Donors Shunning Super-PACs Favor Democrats in Fundraising (Supreme Court you really created a monster…oops a person from a corporation!)

*Hurricane Sandy Shows We Must Recognize the Cost of Climate Change – BB View

(but the moneyed interests have no interest in cutting into their bottom line…hence, GOP fossil fuels plan based on oil, gas, and of course ‘clean coal’ – an oxymoron!)

Stocks barely budged and Utilities plummeted (dividend tax concerns?), while the two Nasdaq indices and the Russell 2000 were all up 0.6%. Financials faltering? Watch closely! Still the ‘rally’ was meaningless in contrast to Monday’s decline which negated Friday’s rally…but who cares? Total NYSE volume dropped to 2.92B shares from 3.61B while floor volume plundged to 601M shares (lowest since 10/10!) vs 793M shares!

Bond market yesterday held the overnight gains but is off slightly again! Note that 3 mo. Libor is steady at 0.31% while the 6 mo. rate dropped another basis point to 0.53%!!!

Nothing new on Gold or Crude the gains on both are miniscule while the declines are solid!

– – –  . . .  – – –

(Correction: Michael Bordo was not a Fed governor but a visiting scholar to two Federal Reserve districts and to the Board of Governors. Still as highly qualified. TB)

…as you vote today – if you haven’t already – ask yourself if this is the America you want your children and children to grow up in. One where facts are meaningless and trampled on, in favor of misinformation and disinformation and worse. Where there is little or no civility. Where are elected leaders see compromise as a weakness. Where a record of voting 95% with an elected officials party isn’t enough and she is thrown overboard despite their abilities. Where it isn’t even acceptable to talk to anyone on the other side of the aisle.

Where lobbyists pool their $50,000 maximum to be spent on a member of Congress with other lobbying groups who could care less about this individual and throw fundraisers. Then the ones who gave ask the others to do the same – this goes on over and over. As Lawrence Lessig says: Congress is not corrupt…that would be foolish and only a few are stupid enough to be bribed…but it has been corrupted by lobbyists sometimes on promises of a job after their term is over…for them and their key staffers. Don’t believe it? Ask Jack Abramoff!

TB has rethought his feelings on the electoral college…especially in the wake of Sandy. Think of a major disruption that could prevent or delay millions of votes in several states. You might not like the outcome but at least we would have a president declared in a day or two at most…God forbid the Supreme Court should make the decision again.

TB has said many times he is not happy with either of these candidates…so you pick the one you feel will do the least harm. That is your choice and your right.

We talk about checks and balances but can there be such a thing if there is no conversation between the two parties…no compromise…and worse if both houses of Congress and the Oval Office are held by members of the same party in the current environment there are no checks and balances…they become a myth.

But wait you say: there is the Supreme Court…possibly the most ideologically split part o government and it will either stay 4:4 plus Chief Justice Roberts, who despite his leanings has crossed the ideological barrier at times, or go 5:3 when one of the two liberals retires…or dies…or worse yet 6:3! Ah, but you are a conservative so you welcome that…are you sure? Be careful what you wish for.

Whoever is elected today…and if it is Romney he is about to find out…that being President isn’t all its cracked up to be…not by a longshot. He, like Obama, will not control Congress…it will control him in the form of his own party! At least for Obama it was the GOP that killed everything he attempted. TB warned you that the President can merely ask…and don’t forget as Obama found out how much you owe your backers…like Goldman Sachs…you don’t seriously believe they support you for your principles do you? No, it is what you can do for them…and damned well better do!

Gov. Romney, you will learn that if you reach across the aisle your hand will be cut off, likely by an extremist member of your own party. It’s good to be king…President? Not so much. But at least you and Obama will go down in history as members of the most elite group in the world…but why would you want to join a group that would have you as a member, as Groucho would say? They love me…they gave me a mandate…did they? It is about as worthless as a wooden nickel.

Gosh, does TB sound disenchanted. You bet he is. When we move towards Plutocracy and anyone who notes class differences is considered ‘divisive’ as if it will go away by saying that, or who believes the wealthiest 1% are the only ones working and thus the only ones who deserve to reap the rewards, will eventually find out what happens when a miniscule minority tries to govern a massive majority with multiple interests. Thankfully, there are no real leaders out there but we had all better pray (middle class and above), that if and when she emerges, she is a benevolent person because if not we will be governed by a despot. It can’t happen here…we have our checks and balances…uh huh.

God bless the United States of America…in spite of us. England swings like a pendulum do…right Roger? Yep, what goes up, must come down…spinning wheel, got to go round. We all know what goes around comes around…sooner or later, right?

Hope we wake up tomorrow morning and this is all behind us…one can hope.

TB

 

. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

 

Volume dropped below 3B shares yesterday on a day of minor gains for the Dow 30, Transports, and the S&P 500 while the two Nasdaq indices and Russell 2000 gained back about half of their losses…not a good sign. Dow Utilities were down for a third session.  session: 2.91B vs 3.61B vs 3.9B vs 3.56B…vs…3.28B vs 3.5B. On 9/1 volume hit 4.56B shares, high of the year. NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market had been around 560M shares every session 10 minutes before the close but this time is was just 460M shares finishing at a very +601M  vs 793M vs 797M vs 853M…vs…719M. 9/15’s 464M shares was the lowest since 11/25/11! There have been just 12 700M+ days since 8/3. The high ytd was 9/21’s 1.8B shares – due to a quadruple witching and an S&P rebalancing. Since 6/29 just 14 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 673M. The average for 2012 is just 771M shares and since 6/29 just 696M shares– WEAK!!! 108 of the last 148 sessions have been less than 800M shares (73%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 23 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 9/21’s high for 2012 of 1.8B (5B including ETNs) and just 20 have been above 900M – 791M is the 12 month average. Since 11/1/11 there have been just 17, 1B share days…13 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been 64 sessions less than 700M shares. 226 of the last 243 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (93%)!

 

Advance/Declines were barely positive: +1.1x vs -2.3x vs +3.4x vs +1.4x…vs…-1.4x on NYSE and +1.5x vs -2.7x! vs +1.9x vs +1.2x…vs…-1.4x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar: +1.1x vs -2.8x vs +4x! vs +1.3x…vs…-2.6x on NYSE and +2.2x vs -2.8x vs +4.5x! vs -1.4x…vs…-1.1x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs dropped sharply again to 113 vs 256 vs 309 vs 225 vs 117; (768 is cycle high). New lows were a tad lower at 97 vs 101 vs 93 vs 137 vs 99, recent low was 48. The ratio is: +1.1x vs +2.5x vs +3x vs +1.6x, recent high was 7x! The S&P VIX rose again to 18.42 vs 17.59 +.83. The 12-month low was 13.32 on 8/17 while the 1012 high is 27.73 on June 4.

 

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow +0.2% vs -1.1% vs +1% vs -0.1%…vs…flat; Dow Transports +0.3% vs -1.1% vs +1.6% vs +0.7%…vs…+0.3%;Dow Utilities DOWN 1.6%!!! vs -0.7% vs -1.4%! vs +0.8%!…vs…-0.1%; S&P 500 +0.2% vs -0.9% vs +1.1% vs flat…vs…-0.1%; Nasdaq Composite +0.6% vs -0.9% vs +1.4% vs -0.4%…vs…+0.1%; Nasdaq 100 +0.6% vs -1.2% vs +1.5% vs -0.7%!…vs…+0.3%; Russell 2000 +0.6% vs -1.6%! vs +1.1% vs +0.7%…vs…-0.4%; NYSE Financials -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.6% (KBW Banks -0.3% vs -0.7% vs +1.7% vs +0.7%…vs…-0.9%; Nasdaq Banks +0.1% vs -1.3%! vs +0.6% vs +0.3%…vs…-0.6%; NYSE Brokers +0.8%? vs -0.4% vs +1.8% vs +0.6% …vs…-0.1%.NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -1% vs +1.1% vs +4.5% vs +2.2%…vs…-1.2%; C -0.7%.

 

European equities better, Asia negative, except Korea and India: FTSE +0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.4% vs +0.6% vs -1.2%; CAC 40 +0.3% vs -1%! vs +0.6% vs +0.6% vs -0.9%; DAX +0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs +0.7% vs -0.3%;Nikkei -0.4% vs -0.5% vs +1.2% vs +0.2% vs +1%; Hang Seng -0.3% vs -0.5% vs +1.3%! vs +0.8% vs +1%; Korean KOSPI +1.1%!!! vs -0.6% vs +1.1% vs -1.3% vs +0.7%;Indian Sensex +0.3% vs flat vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.4%. U.S. stock futures higher – now, coming back! DOW +31 vs -50; SPX +3.80 vs -2; NDQ +12 vs -4.

 

U.S. treasury bonds held overnight gains but are modestly lower overnightt: 10 yr 1.70% vs 1.68% -1/4 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.89% vs 2.87% –1/4. Long TIP 0.37% -3/16. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.44%; 10 yr -.78%.Bills 0.07% vs 0.04%!!! 1 month; 0.10% 3 months; 0.15% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.29% vs 0.32%. 3 mo. Libor 0.31%; 6 mo. 0.53!!!! On 9/18 they were 0.38% and 0.67% respectively …with no policy change??? European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark 1.43% +1; Japan 0.75% -1; Italy 4.92% -6; Spain 5.66% -6; Greece 16.92 vs 17.71% -57!!!…on 9/20: 19.75%!!!; Portugal 8.27% -5; Ireland 4.65% flat.

 

Gold managed to rally a bit but only after bouncing off the 200 day m/a closing at $1683.20 +$8.00, after a session low of $1672 just $1 above the 200 day! It remains well below BOTH the 40 day AND 50 day moving averages last visited on August 15th! It closed at $1798.10 on 10/13, highest since 2/29 and it has lost $115 since (6.8%)! 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6/11. RES at $1738, the 50 day, $1748, the 40 day.MAJOR SUP at $1671, the 200 day. CAUTION!!! 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1689.20 +$6.50. Crude closed up a little at $85.65 +.79 – following the lowest close since 7/9. It has traded below the 40/50/200 day since 9/19! RES at the 40 day (90.60), 50 day (91.67), and the 200 day (94.86) – all are now plunging!!! Overnight it is $85.98+.33.

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