11/2/12…3 more days: the case for a 6-year, one-term presidency

Want to know what is wrong with America? Katie Couric was interviewing The Donald because he stayed in his apartment and tweeted thru the hurricane and had a direct view of the crane, which he correctly criticized the contractor for not securing it safely. THEN, when asked about damage to Atlantic City he said while there is significant damage the federal government will help with the rebuilding. This from a man endorsing Romney? Proves he should have refused the endorsement! See, when it impacts us we want the government…it is the other people who are leeches, right? You betcha!

TB’s Quotes of the Day: “May the best man win…so long as it is MY man!” and…

“In this election they don’t stretch the truth, they elastisize it…even when it is a lie.”

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I must create a system, or be enslaved by another man’s.” – William Blake

U.S. Unemployment in October rose to 7.9% vs 7.8% (7.876% vs 7.796% so Jack W. they are doing a poor job of manipulation, right?). Adding discouraged workers it rose to 8.4% vs 8.3% BUT with part-timers who wish to work full time it fell to 14.6% vs 14.7%. The Household measure also showed  a gain of 410k jobs. The Participation Rate increased to 63.8% vs 63.6%, a big part of the increase in the rate as the labor force grew by 480k. Meanwhile the establishment report of  Non-Farm Payrolls climbed to 171k vs consensus 125k – even surpassing the ADP report and unexpectedly! Meanwhile August was revised up to 192k from 142k and September to 148k vs 114k for a combined gain of +84k jobs.  Also, Private Payrolls rose by 184k while Govt. LOST 13k jobs!!! In the right direction EXCEPT total average hourly earnings are up just 1.6% from a year ago – smallest gain since 2007! Can either man fix that? No!!!

Market Reaction: Bonds were unchanged ahead of the reports but the long bond is now off a point to 2.95% while the 10-year yields 1.76%. Gold was off about $8 and is now off $22 to $1693 while Crude is $86.75 -.34. The dollar gained on the news against both the Euro and Sterling. Stock futures which were down early on had come back to flat and the Dow is now +32 vs the low -18; SPX +5.50 vs -3; NDQ+40!!! Vs -30!!! Team Romney mustn’t be in a good mood as the economic winds (no pun intended) have not been going their way…expect them to emphasize and  exploit the rise in the unemployment rate.

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Commodities Decline Before U.S. Jobs Report as Euro Weakens for Second Day

*Jobless Rate Probably Rose in October in Last Report Before U.S. Election

*BOE’s Big Errors since financial Crisis Signal Overhaul Is Needed

*Deutsche Bank Faces Bigger Burden on Capital as Regulators Ease Up on BofA

*RBS Sees Fine to Settle Libor Inquiries After Lender Swings Into Net Loss

*Nomura Employee Found to Tip Insider Trader Before Elpida Offering in 2011

*Sharp Tumbles After Saying Survival in Doubt With Record $5.6 Billion Loss

*Sandy Loss to Be Third-Largest for Federal Flood Insurance – not if GOP had way!

*Superstorm Sandy’s Record New York Damages Reach Bond Market – Muni’s!!!

*U.S. President Election, China 18th Congress, G-20 – BIG week ahead!

*Manhattan Should Have All Power Restored by the End of the Day, Con Ed Says

*Most of Manhattan is Up and Running While the Battery Stays Down and Out

NOTE FOUR bank stories…all negative! 

Ahead of the payrolls reports stock futures and bonds are deadly quiet…won’t last for long though. Stocks markets were up solidly…too much so with the volume on the ETN’s rising but FALLING on the floor of the NYSE. While it appeared to be a strong  session ALL indices were up similar amounts except Dow Utilities which decline 1.4%. Bond market was weak and is flat while awaiting payrolls. Greek bonds little changed but today it is Portugal: 8.06% up .20!!! Gold closed weaker and  Crude modestly higher at $87.09, highest since 10/22 but sitll very weak!

 

Yesterday, TB commented on the top story on Chrysler U.S. sales being up 10% in the month despite Sandy. He also mentioned Mitt Romney’s claim that the Obama administration after bailing out Chrysler has allowed them to manufacture Jeeps in China and sell them here. Despite being disproved by Politifact as a ‘pants on fire’ lie, he repeated it in a speech later in the day. It is true, they are making Jeeps in China, for sale in China, not in the U.S. This is the kind of irresponsible lie Romney continues to repeat. Doesn’t he have anything constructive to add: like details of his tax and economic plans?

 

– – –  . . .  – – –

 

…amazing just 100 hours left…but 10,000 commericals, none of any value, buy network stock…it will be a banner year! As we await the decision on who will be the next/same President of the United States it is a good time to reflect on how that person should be elected and if it is proper to have a president occupied with re-election from the time they take office and thus owing to those who contributed to their campaign. Also, should we have sitting presidents spending nearly a year flying around campaigning. As the full impact of Citizens United has now hit us and even worse the earlier decision which allowed 510(c)(4)’s to influence people without even disclosing who they are or who is funding them.

 

Originally, and ending with FDR, a President could serve any number of terms. Then came term limits of two terms. That was put through by the GOP who later regretted it when they would have loved to see Ike run again. That is what happens when you pass laws on emotion rather than purpose. TB believes it is time to reduce that term to ONE, a six-year that would allow a President time to get things done and under three possible House of Representatives and with a full turnover in the Senate. That is serving the will of the people which is never a mandate but fluid and changing.

 

From an economic standpoint it also would allow continuity of the executive branch over what is a normal economic cycle (4-6 years). Look how much might have been accomplished had a six-year term. First, it would not serve the parties to benefit their contributors which can change in every election (last time Goldman Sachs was Obama’s biggest contributor, now they are for Romney…but the also backed McCain for a safety measure). Obviously, these special interests would be very unhappy with a leader that wouldn’t consider their interests first. This is the essence of the plutocracy that now exists and it is destroying America.

 

Would Obama have appointed the Simpson-Bowles Commission then hung them out to dry if he hadn’t had to worry about getting re-elected? No. Had he done so, Paul Ryan would have been the one seen as an obstructionist along with all the sitting GOP congressmen who voted against the committees findings, and now praise it.

 

Would we have addressed the serious issue of global warming in a constructive way before it reaches crisis proportions rather than call those who believe it – the public doesn’t matter but 98%+ of the scientific community knows it is fact – rather than calling everyone ‘treehugging wacko’s’ (like Ralph Reed refers to his supporters!).

 

Think of the billions being spent on campaign advertising – most of it negative and designed to misinform not educate. That would be cut in half…more if the Supreme Court admits they erred badly on Citizens United and all subsequent related decisions, along ‘party’ lines.

 

But to really improve our elections we should shorten the time allowed to three months maximum: one month for primaries, then a convention, then debates, then vote! It is far too long and has become far too expensive to not become ‘beholding’ (more beholding?) to the money interests…note TB said moneyed interest – on both sides – as we are all ‘special interests.’ No other country in the world takes as long to select a President, and no other democratic country has the amount of manipulation of candidates as we do because of it. This, despite we have the communications means via media and the internet to get information disseminated in a timely manner.

 

This has been a disgusting election and it will be even more so over the next three days. When before have we seen lies continue to be promulgated – even by the candidates themselves – when they have been disproven by independent factcheckers and the press? Doesn’t this insult your intelligence? Doesn’t it lower your respect for both parties?

If not, TB pities you…and the future of America because if it isn’t stopped it can only get worse, and if the electorate eventually discovers they have been misled, and at least one true leader emerges…the changes will not be good for the middle class and higher.

 

Obama has been criticized for emphasizing the wealth gap, but it is real and is the underlying cause of change, either peacefully or violently, in every instance. Think where it will be in four more years regardless of who is elected…it is only a matter of degree.

 

For the inauguration, if Romney is elected, at least neither Obama or Biden will pull a Dick Cheney and refuse to stand for the oath (do you really believe he, with a bad ticker was moving boxes and if so, since the court challenged him on this, were they so sensitive that he never wanted anyone else to see them…that was the reason the court intervened: the law requires that ALL of his paper be turned over to the National Archives, not selectively). TB expects both will honor the office regardless of their feelings for the man or their disappointment at not being re-elected, as all Congressional leaders should do.

 

Perhaps Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid will stop his shenanigans as the GOP should with their filibusters (which may cause the Dems to do the same if they become the minority), give up or down votes to appointees rather than killing them before the full Senate even has a say. Sadly, the GOP so polarized the Senate by these actions, and Reid by his, that it is unlikely to end and could even escalate. We did not elect them for this.

 

We should also expect the polarized media to back the President instead of trying to undermine him and prevent him from doing his job – as he sees it (funny, TB was reading a David Brooks article on what a moderate is and he kept referring to ‘her’ to be politically correct which sounds ridiculous when all concerned are male!), while still uncovering his bad deeds. Never happen!

 

Well, it is really getting down to the wire. Will there be a ‘November surprise’ by Tuesday? We have sure had some contenders for the October surprise which began at the end of September! Hope you can enjoy your weekend without being bombarded.

 

Lastly, a Secret Service agent assigned to Obama’s protection team had died, an apparent suicide. He was being investigated due to ties to a foreign agent. This came about as an agent caught in the Columbian prostitution scandal told superiors while complaining about unequal treatment. Kind of makes you sick, doesn’t it?

 

TB

 

. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

 

Volume rose again on a strong day driven by high frequency trades – note how all indices are up by similar amounts with only Dow Utilities down: 3.9B vs 3.56B…vs…3.28B vs 3.5B. On 9/1 volume hit 4.56B shares, high of the year. NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market again around 560M shares 10 minutes before the close but only got to a weak 797M vs 853M…vs…719M vs 696M. 9/15’s 464M shares was the lowest since 11/25/11! There have been just 11 700M+ days since 8/3. The high ytd was 9/21’s 1.8B shares – due to a quadruple witching and an S&P rebalancing. Since 6/29 just 14 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 672M. The average for 2012 is just 771M shares and since 6/29 just 693M shares– WEAK!!! 106 of the last 146 sessions have been less than 800M shares (72%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 23 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 9/21’s high for 2012 of 1.8B (5B including ETNs) and just 20 have been above 900M – 791M is the 12 month average. Since 11/1/11 there have been just 17, 1B share days…13 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been 63 sessions less than 700M shares. 225 of the last 241 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (94%)!

 

Advance/Declines were strong: +3.4x vs +1.4x…vs…-1.4x vs +1.5x vs -1.3x on NYSE and +1.9x vs +1.2x…vs…-1.4x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x on Nasdaq. Breadth was even better: +4x! vs +1.3x…vs…-2.6x vs +1.2x vs -2x on NYSE and +4.5x! vs -1.4x!…vs…-1.1x vs +1.1x vs -1.5x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs rose sharply to 309 vs 225 vs 117 vs 151 vs 110 vs 67 vs 97 vs 177 vs 330 vs 363 (768 is cycle high). New lows were cut to -93 vs 137 vs 99 vs 103 vs 107 vs  143 vs 95 vs 121! vs 54 vs 48. The ratio is: +3x vs +1.6x vs +1.2:1 vs +1.5x vs 1:1 vs -2.1x! vs  -1:1 vs +1.5x vs +6x vs +7x. The S&P VIX, plunged 10.3% to 16.69 vs 18.60 -1.91! The 12-month low was 13.32 on 8/17 while the 1012 high is 27.73 on June 4.

 

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow +1% vs -0.1%…vs…flat vs +0.2% vs -0.2%; Dow Transports +1.6% vs +0.7%…vs…+0.3% vs +0.6% vs -2%;Dow Utilities -1.4%! vs +0.8%!…vs…-0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.7%; S&P 500 +1.1% vs flat…vs…-0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq Composite +1.4% vs -0.4%…vs…+0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq 100 +1.5% vs -0.7%!…vs…+0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.4%; Russell 2000 +1.1% vs +0.7%…vs…-0.4%! vs +0.4% vs -0.3%; NYSE Financials +1.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs flat (KBW Banks +1.7% vs +0.7%…vs…-0.9% vs +0.6% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq Banks +0.6% vs +0.3%…vs…-0.6% vs +0.8% vs flat; NYSE Brokers +1.8% vs +0.6% …vs…-0.1% vs +1.4% vs +0.3%. NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC +4.5% – but still below $10! vs +2.2%…vs…-1.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.6% – no other leaders for a FIFTH session!

 

Global equities up for a second day: FTSE +0.4% vs +0.6% vs -1.2% vs +0.8% vs -0.5%; CAC 40 +0.6% vs +0.6% vs -0.9% vs +1.4% vs -1%; DAX +0.6% vs +0.7% vs -0.3% vs +1% vs -0.6%;Nikkei +1.2%! vs +0.2% vs +1% vs -1% vs flat; Hang Seng +1.3%!! vs +0.8% vs +1% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; Korean KOSPI +1.1% vs -1.3% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs flat;Indian Sensex +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs -1.1% vs +0.1%. U.S. stock futures are in headline section above.

 

U.S. treasury bonds were weak Thursday, and again following strong payrolls report: 10 yr 1.76% -5/16 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.95% -15/16. Long TIP 0.38% -3/4. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.46%; 10 yr -.78%.Bills 0.05%!!! 1 month; 0.09% 3 months; 0.15% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.38% vs 0.55%!!! 3 mo. Libor 0.31%; 6 mo. 0.54! On 9/18 they were 0.38% and 0.67% respectively…with no policy change??? European problem sovereign 10 years, and adding Japan, Germany-benchmark 1.47% +1; Japan 0.77% +1; Italy 4.92% +1; Spain 5.60% +5; Greece 17.74%! -2 vs +39!!!…on 9/20: 19.75%!!!; Portugal 8.06% +20!!!; Ireland 4.64% +1.

 

Gold was modestly down at $1715.50 -$3.60. Tuesday’s low of $1704 not seen since 9/7! It remains well below BOTH the 40 day AND 50 day moving averages last visited on August 15th! It closed at $1798.10 on 10/13, highest since 2/29 and it has lost $83 since. 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6/11. RES at $1737, the 50 day, $1752, the 40 day.MAJOR SUP at $1671, the 200 day. CAUTION!!! 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1694.00 -$21.50. Last Wednesday’s low was $1704.60! Crude closed up slightly at highest since 10-22 but going nowhere at $87.09 +.75. 10/24’s session low of $84.94 was lowest since 7/12! It has traded below the 40/50/200 day since 9/19! RES at the 40 day (91.44), 50 day (92.29), and the 200 day (95.06) – all falling sharply again. Overnight it is $86.70 -.39.

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