10/29/12…7 more days; who do you trust?

Giants rock!!! 4-0!!! Romo again the clincer.

A longtime friend sent these non-partisan political quotes…or are they? TB

The problem with political jokes is they get elected. ~Henry Cate, VII

We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. ~Aesop

If we got one-tenth of what was promised to us in these acceptance speeches there wouldn’t be any inducement to go to heaven. ~Will Rogers

Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber. ~Plato

 Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “It is easier to fight for one’s principles than to live up to them.” – Alfred Adler…Hear! Hear! A very perceptive man.

This week’s economic calendar is quite full and has several important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the October Employment Situation Report (Friday). We will also get September Personal Income (Monday), the August Case-Shiller Home Price Index and October Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), the October ADP National Employment Report, the Q3 Employment Cost Index, and the October ISM Chicago Survey (Wednesday), preliminary Q3 Productivity & Costs, the October ISM Manufacturing Survey, September Construction Spending, and October Motor Vehicle Sales (Thursday), and September Factory Orders (Friday). Courtesy of Steve Wood, Insight Economics, Walnut Creek, CA.

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Decline as Hurricane Sandy Shuts U.S. Markets While Gasoline Climbs

*U.S. Consumer Spending Rises the Most in Seven Months as Incomes Increase

*Consumers Spend to Spur U.S. Growth as Debased Dollar Fails to Aid Exports

*U.S. Equity Markets are SHUT as NYC Prepares for the Hurricane – futures weak tho!

*UBS’s Shrinking Investment Bank Seen Freeing Up Capital for Shareholders – huh???

*Deutsche Bank is Outperforming UBS in Sing of Investment Banking Recovery – hello?

*UBS Fixed-Income Head Hoornweg Said Poised to Leave Amid Reorganization – !!!

*Spain’s Pain Intensifying as Slump Extension Deepens Plight

*Insurers Slide in Europe as U.S. East Coast Prepares for Hurricane Sandy

*Hedge Funds cut Bullish Crude Oil Bets to Three Month Low

*East Coast Confronts Stomr surge as Strengthening Sandy Heads Toward N.J.

*Hurricane’s New York Flight Upheaval to Disrupt Ari Travel Throughout U.S.

*Whistleblower’s Rules Slow to Catch On in U.S. Corporate Fraud Fight – sad

*Ohio Seen Leaning to Obama as Auto comeback Defies Romney Blast of Bailout

Gold and especially Crude continue to trade very weak. Gold is still in danger of closing below $1700 while Crude put in a new low Wednesday of $84.84, lowest since July 12th and closed Friday at a weak $86.28 +.23.

U.S. treasuries coming back with the 10 yr. now at 1.71% –  Overnight Greece broke above 17% again and other problem states are trading weak.

While overall NYSE volume was lower, ‘real’ NYSE volume rose to 738M shares, highest since 9/25. The bad news was that with the exception of Transports (+0.3%), it was a weak session…Nasdaq indices imperceptibly up, while the Russell 2000 was the biggest loser of the key indices (-0.4%). Financials fell by 0.6% led by BofA -1.2% vs -0.8% and for a second day the only mover in the sector. Hmmm. Nothing to see here!

So far stocks have not even had a ‘dead cat bounce’ since Tuesday’s trouncing! For the week the Dow is till off 240 points (1.7%) and is been down 5 of the last six sessions, S&P 20 points (1.4%) but the real damage is the two Nasdaq indices which had been the leaders of the rally (?), and are off 0.7% and  0.8% respectively. After being down for four straight sessions, yesterday’s uptick was a joke. AAPL, which is 20% of the 100 has been down 15 of the last 21 sessions since the record high on 9/19. Consider Tuesday’s headline which sparked the selloff: lower corporate earnings, revised estimates and warnings. Yet yesterday stock were up early and higher earnings from a few reporting companies pushed them up in the overnight market…flawed logic…or just plain old hype?

– – –  . . .  – – –

…remember that old TB show, Who Do You Trust? Well…TB was doing some factchecking on his favorite www.politifact.org and found among the tabs pundits!

Oh boy, let’s see who is telling those whoppers. Found some very enlightening facts, but first a disclaimer: the factchecks were only on things significant enough to factcheck, i.e. not white lies. Also some had as few as one statement so TB is starring those with just a couple of checks. Truth is divided up among True, mostly true, partially true which means some who came in as honest still told very few whole truths…in fact, none had more than 10% totally true, while the False category went from mostly false, false, pants on fire false! For those in the <50% true column most were bunched in the lower two categories. There were some big surprises to TB and he is sure they will be to you too. Hope it isn’t too late to correct some impressions you have before you vote. If there is someone you trusted and who scored poorly go to the site and check for yourself. Kind of fun…and kind of scary. Here goes:

Hall of Fame – the 100%’ers

Chris Dodd, John King, Mike Murphy, Katrina vanden Hoevel, Arianna Huffington, Cokie Roberts, Lou Dobbs – kudos to them! *Kathy O’Donnell, *Eugene Robinson, *Bill Bennett, but only one or two checks

Honorable Mention:

Paul Krugman 87% – with 55% wholly true

Donna Brazile 89% – no whoppers!

Sean Hannity 86% – surprised TB but it is his manner and rhetoric that is offensive

50%+ True – can’t always depend on honesty more on ideology:

Keith Olberman 71%

David Brooks 67% – but 33% were half-true

George Will 76% – but 24% mostly false!

*Michelle Makin 67% – 33% false

Bill O’Reilly 60% – 40% false! Fair and equal?

Glen Beck 65%

Rachel Maddow 53% – yep, she can lie too!

50/50:

David Gregory – only four checks but could have been drawing out interviewee?

Chris Matthews

Rick Perry – a near-perfect bell-shaped curve

Bob Beckel

<50% True;

Ed Schultz – 20%!

Jon Stewart -33% True, 67% False…that is surprising and sad

Dick Armey – 33% but not many

Michael Savage 50% – but 50% pants on fire lies!

Ann Coulter 42% – 58% were wholly false! most character damaging statements

Rush Limbaugh 20% – 80% lies yet look at the audience of ‘muppets’ he attracts!

CHAIN EMAILS 86% FALSE, only 4% wholly true! 53% pants on fire lies!!! Factcheck or delete! Don’t fwd!!!

100% Bogus!!! Hall of Shame! Also these were REAL lies!

Joe Scarborough

Kimberly Gilfoyle

*Thomas Sowell –Hoover Institute, also right sends emails attributed to him but not his!

Mary Matelin – another ideologue! Nothing on James Carville

Bill Maher – not surprising! In fact, expected

Steve Doocy

Nancy Pfotenhauer – former Bush admin. 100% pants on fire lies

Bet some of your favorites and dislikes turned out upside down, right? Wish they had the lies by network though. Note the number of 50% and less from FOX. Speaking of which, if you have not watched, The Five. DON’T! Two conservatives, two Fox liberals (sic), and a neo-con moderator. The entire show they shout over one another…thanks Rupert for bringing us the real news..and helping us make an informed vote!!!

But what is truly sad is the number of people who get their information strictly from a station that shares their beliefs. Makes you so vulnerable to malicious lies, right? Think about it. Then there is the group that gets it from Comedy Central…it too isn’t what they think. Disagree with TB’s stats? Check for yourself!

Not a category but if you look at the organizations (SuperPac’s etc.) they go from outright lies to pants on fire…virtually NO truth! Hope you have the sense to tune them out! Well you have enough to digest here…TB is still sorting it all out.

Now, what is influencing your thinking? Why do we believe lies even when we know they aren’t even credible? Marilyn von Savant answered this in her column in Parade Magazine on Sunday: This is…“a fine example of bias, probably caused by an aversion to accepting the likelihood that one can be wrong. Why, if your wrong about one thing, you might be wrong about other things? It’s a scary thought, all right, especially if you’ve built your life around the philosophy of a political party.

Some people are so biased that they tend to agree with most or all of the positions taken by their own parties, and if you agree with a position taken by a different party, they assume you must be a member of the opposing party. That’s the epitome of bias.”

 

Consider how it is a sin these days in Congress to talk to a member of the other party or agree with anything she says. But we have to look no farther than our own consciences for the answer, do we?

A slap at someone from each party:

First, because it’s the most offensive, Gov. John Sununu, former governor of New Hampshire and Chief of Staff to George H.W. Bush, for making the statement that Colin Powell endorsed Obama because he was of the same color. Later, he changed that to say there must be other reasons too. This is outright stupidity and worse degrading to a great military leader as well as racist. Sununu has a record of speaking his mind and in doing so shows how shallow that mind is. If you want the real reason you have to only consider that Powell was Secretary of Defense under George W. Bush and was constantly berated in cabinet meetings by the neo-cons, Cheney and Rumsfeld. When he finally ‘caved’ to their relentless attacks and misinformation (disinformation?) on Iraq, he was made a fool of in front of the United Nations with propaganda that had been ‘sold’ to him as military intelligence. His long time aide, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson however, was not in the least reticent about what happened. He has spoken and written not only about the fraud but that both Cheney and Rumsfeld should be tried as war criminals. TB concurs! But it would be too demeaning to do so. Here is link to some of his statements, there are more:  Wilkerson

As for the Dems, TB heard a segment on NPR with a tape of Eric Holder claiming that there have been more trials and record fines levied against major corporations during his term than at any other time. True, given how the size of the fines have ramped up lately…a billion here, a billion there. But what went unsaid was that the SEC fined Angelo Mozillo and he was not prosecuted. The amount of the fine in relation to his own insider trading alone, was a pittance. Only Bear, Stearns execs were prosecuted and when it was deemed there was unbelievably insufficient evidence, no further prosecutions were attempted – of anyone. This is typical of attorneys who strive for a ‘win’ record rather than be willing to prosecute and shame the criminals even if they can’t obtain a conviction…our CEO’s need shaming, not to continue on their merry way and continue to collect their bonuses. Also, if the fines, which are well less than the amount of ill-gotten gains, that certainly won’t act as a deterrent will it? Guess who pays them? The shareholders who already had to pay for the losses and the undeserved bonuses! Yikes! Most likely though, Holder will not remain for the second term…would you?  Just out an excellent Bloomberg article on why the SEC protects the banks: William D. Cohanl

As for the Sunday talk shows, Face the Nation had a ridiculous debate between John Fund and a liberal over whether Obama had a 50% approval rating…sadly Bob Shieffer thought it was funny so it came up three times during the show. On Meet the Press, they had Carly Fiorina – why does anyone listen to a disgraced CEO who collected a big bonus for engineering the Compaq merger for HP which sent it on a downward spiral? Not only that this loudmouth with the look of a rat left in disgrace and during her entire tenure showed an inability to lead? Dump Carly!

The string of newspapers…you know, the liberal media, endorsing Obama continues to grow and politifact has the names of them…all the majors, including the NYT and the Post. But the most interesting is the Salt Lake Tribune which nixed Romney in an editorial titled: Too Many Mitt’s. The point being that they have no idea what he really believes…and that goes for TB. Worse, we have no idea what he will do or how he will cut the deficit (even while increasing defense spending), or what tax items will be lost. Oops, he doesn’t make law and you know there will have to be enormous compromise to do anything in the Congress. Aarrgghh!!!

Lastly, and interesting comment by someone: the election could be impacted by Hurricane Sandy as many people may rethink the role of government in protecting the people. Will it be like Katrina?…or??? Wait, you don’t think Obama caused this hurricane in order to secure re-election do you? Well…uh…maybe…uh…not so sure. Sheesh!!!

. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

Volume dropped again and remains well below the surge from last Friday’s options expiry: 3.28B vs 3.5B vs 3.36B vs  3.13B vs 3.2B vs 3.87B vs 3.83B vs 3.64B shares on a fourth weak session. On 9/1 volume hit 4.56B shares, high of the year. NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market also rose to 719M vs 696M vs 650M vs 671M vs 634M vs 941M shares (highest since 9/21). 9/15’s 464M shares was the lowest since 11/25/11! There have been just nine 700M+ days since 8/3 – this one on a down day. The high ytd was 9/21’s 1.8B shares – due to a quadruple witching and an S&P rebalancing. Since 6/29 just 13 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 668M. The average for 2012 is just 772M shares and since 6/29 just 691M shares– WEAK!!! 105 of the last 144 sessions have been less than 800M shares (72%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 23 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 9/21’s high for 2012 of 1.8B (5B including ETNs) and just 20 have been above 900M – 790M is the 12 month average. Since 11/1/11 there have been just 17, 1B share days…13 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been 63 sessions less than 700M shares. 224 of the last 239 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (94%)!

Advance/Declines turned modestly negative again: -1.4x vs +1.5x vs -1.3x vs -2.7x vs -1.1x on NYSE and -1.4x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x vs -1.8x vs -1.1x on Nasdaq. Breadth was also negative: -2.6x vs +1.2x vs -2x vs -7.5x! vs -1.1x on NYSE and -1.1x vs +1.1x vs -1.5x vs -1.7x vs +1.2x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs dropped again  to 117 vs 151 vs 110 vs 67 vs 97 vs 177 vs 330 vs 363 (768 is cycle high). New lows were steady at 99 vs 103 vs 107 vs  143 vs 95 vs 121! vs 54 vs 48. The ratio is: +1.2:1 vs +1.5x vs 1:1 vs -2.1x! vs  -1:1 vs +1.5x vs +6x vs +7x. The S&P VIX, slipped again to 17.81 vs 18.12 -.31, still negative! The 12-month low was 13.32 on 8/17 while the 1012 high is 27.73 on June 4.

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow FLAT vs +0.2% vs -0.2% vs -1.8% vs flat; Dow Transports  UP 0.3% vs +0.6% vs -2%! vs +0.9%? vs -0.4%;Dow Utilities -0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.9% vs -0.4%; S&P 500 -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs -1.4% vs flat; Nasdaq Composite +0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.3% vs -0.9% vs +0.6%; Nasdaq 100 +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs -1.1% vs +0.4%; Russell 2000 -0.4%! vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.1%; NYSE Financials -0.6% vs +0.3% vs flat vs -1.7%! vs +0.3% (KBW Banks -0.9% vs +0.6% vs -0.3% vs -1.3% vs flat; Nasdaq Banks -0.6% vs +0.8% vs flat vs -0.5% vs +0.4%; NYSE Brokers -0.1% vs +1.4% vs +0.3% vs -1.3% vs flat. NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -1.2%! vs -0.8% vs -0.6% vs -1.9% vs +1.2% – no other leaders for a THIRD session?!?

Global stocks weak, especially Europe: FTSE -0.5% vs flat vs +0.4% vs +0.4% vs -1.2%; CAC 40 -1% vs +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.6% vs -1.7%; DAX -0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.5% vs -1.6%;Nikkei flat vs -1.4%! vs +1.1% vs -0.7% vs +0.1%; Hang Seng -0.2% vs -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs closed; Korean KOSPI flat vs -1.7%! vs +0.6% vs -0.7% vs -0.8%;Indian Sensex +0.1% vs -0.7% vs +0.3% vs -0.4% vs -0.4%. U.S. stock futures weak: DOW -90; SPX -9.20!; NDQ -23.25 – ouch!

U.S. treasury bonds rallying again following Friday’s gain…still weak: 10 yr 1.71% vs 1.79% +3/16 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.87% vs 2.96% +3/4. Long TIP 0.37% vs +.43% +1 pt. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.41% vs -1.39%; 10 yr -.76% vs -.70%.Bills 0.12% 1 month; 0.11% 3 months; 0.15% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.27% vs 0.32%. 3 mo. Libor 0.31%; 6 mo. 0.54! On 9/18 they were 0.38% and 0.67% respectively…with no policy change??? European problem sovereign 10 years, and adding Japan, Germany-benchmark 1.48% -5; Japan 0.77% vs 0.79% on 10/18, 0.817% on 9/13, low 0.747% on 10/11; Italy 4.99% +9; Spain 5.60% +5; Greece 17.10%! +29!!!…on 9/20: 19.75%!!!; Portugal 7.90% +5; Ireland 4.61% -1

Gold was little changed and closed at $1711.90 -$1.10. Tuesday’s low of $1704 not seen since 9/7! It is well below BOTH the 40 day AND 50 day moving averages last visited on August 15th! It closed at $1798.10 on 10/13, highest since 2/29 and it has lost $96 since. 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6/11. RES at $1731, the 50 day, $1750, the 40 day – both rising. MAJOR SUP at $1670, the 200 day. CAUTION!!! 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1707.60 -$4.30. Wednesday’s low was $1704.60! Crude closed barely up again following five WEAK sessions after 10/19’s negative key reversal after trading weak for two weeks, at $86.28 +.23! Wednesday’s session low of $84.94 was lowest since 7/12! It has traded below the 40/50/200 day since 9/19! RES at the 40 day (92.39), 50 day (93.12), and the 200 day (95.34) – all falling! Overnight it is $85.71 -.57.

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