10/12/12….debate this!

Bloomberg Top Stories:


*JPMorgan Third-Quarter Profit Beats Estimates on Mortgage, Trading Revenue

*U.S. Stock Futures Advance With Euro, Spanish Bonds as Commodities Retreat

*Wells Fargo Profit Jumps 22% as Low Interest Rates Spur Loan Refinancing

*Dimon Switches Risk Metrick, Says Models Change ‘Almost Every Time We Talk” – ???

*JPMorgan Investment Bank Nine-Month Pay Pool Fallst to $269,702 Per Person – ???

*Wholesale Prices In U.S. Increase More Than Estimated as Fuel Costs Soar

*EU Wins Peace Prize as Nobel Committee Encourages Effort to Preserve Union – oh no, not another ‘committee to save the world’ – look what that brought us!

*Biden Clashes With Ryan in Debate as Both Pledge Unemployment at Below 6%

*Federal Deficit Reductions Seen as Possible Even With lower Rates  


…whereas Romney whopped Obama, it was more a matter of  likeability last night. Still, Biden looked presidential whereas Ryan appeared bitter (why didn’t someone teach him to smile instead of that look that is reminiscent of a bad impression of Howdy Doody?). His attempts at sincerity likely fooled no one. Of course you may have seen it differently. Biden failed to answer the first question on why the administration called the embassy attack a protest that was then taken over by terrorists (but it is true that the video clip provided a catalyst for Al Quaida to launch the attack), or why they failed to provide protection. Ryan’s attack though didn’t prove much and he overstepped Romney’s aggressive stance on foreign policy which Biden pounced on.

Neither candidate provide even 50% truthful answers…and that includes mostly correct and partially correct. On the other side of the equation they told perhaps 30% mostly lies and falsifications…doesn’t that make you feel good? Moderator Martha Raddatz had her job cut out for her in separating them. Both candidates were annoying in interrupting…Biden in claiming he wasn’t given the same amount of time…Ryan by repeating the same mantra over and over again. This is not a debate. Couldn’t someone have the wisdom to provide a yellow and red light to end their answers? Is that too hard to compute? Furthermore…for each interruption the perp should lose one minute of his time…bet that would make them think…but you have to enforce it.


The problem with the debates is due to the two parties now controlling them. Gone are the days when the League of Women Voters made them valid and useful. No, the parties are serving their own interests…partly to keep third party candidates (think Perot and Nader) out of the picture. That is a shame since by injecting third parties you force the other two to amend their own thinking at least somewhat. But, just like closed primaries, this is not about democracy, but control.


TB was glad Biden brought up Grover Norquist…even if it went nowhere. God help us!  


Hope you have a terrific weekend, 




  . . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)


Equity volume rose to 3.66B shares vs 3.22B shares, up from 2.31B on the partial

holiday. Stocks were mixed and little changed following back to back down days. On 9/1 it hit 4.56B shares, high of the year. NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market however rose to 632M from 591M vs Monday’s 464M shares – the lowest since 11/25/11! Yesterday was the lowest since 8/30 and the third lowest of the year!!! There have been just seven 700M+ days since 8/3. The high ytd was 9/21’s 1.8B shares – due to options expiry and an S&P rebalancing.

Since 6/29 just 11 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B

is just 654M. The average for 2012 is just 773M shares and since 6/29 just 691M shares

– WEAK!!! 95 of the last 133 sessions have been less than 800M shares (71%!). Since

2/29 there have been just 22 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 9/21’s high for 2012

of 1.8B (5B including ETNs) and just 19 have been above 900M – 807M is the 12 month

average and slipping! Since 11/1 there have been just 17, 1B share days…13 in 2012!

Since 2/6 there have been 54 sessions less than 700M shares. 214 of the last 228

sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (94%)!


Advance/Declines were modestly positive: +1.9x vs -1.6x vs -3.4x vs -1.5x vs +1.3x on NYSE and +1.5x vs -1.2x vs -3.6x vs -1.2x vs +2x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar: +2.6x vs -2.5x vs -2.7x vs 1:1 vs +4.1x on NYSE and +1.3x vs -1.9x vs -6.8x! vs -1.7x vs +1.8x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs rose after falling sharply for three sessions to 159 vs 83 (768 is cycle high), while new lows were halved to 41 vs 99. The ratio turned positive again after being negative for the first time in weeks to +3.9 vs -1.2x. The S&P VIX, which rose intraday to 16.79 on 10/10, declined to 15.59 -.70. The low was 13.67 intraday on 10/5.


Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow +0.1% vs -1% vs -0.8% vs +0.1%vs -0.3%; Dow Transports -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -1.1% vs -1.1% vs -1.5%;Dow Utilities +0.1% vs -0.3% vs

-0.2% vs -0.3% vs -0.6%; S&P 500 flat vs -0.6% vs -1% vs -0.1% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq Composite -0.1% vs -0.4% vs -1.5% vs flat vs -0.2%; Nasdaq 100 -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -1.6% vs flat for two sessions; Russell 2000 +0.4%? vs -0.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.3% vs -0.2%; NYSE Financials +0.7% vs -0.1% vs -1% vs -0.6% vs -0.8% (KBW Banks +0.7% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs -0.5% vs +1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +0.5% vs +0.4% vs -0.9% vs +0.1% vs -1.1%). NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC +1.4% vs flat vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -2.6% vs +1.5%.


European stocks lower – Asia mixed and dull: FTSE -0.4% vs +0.8% vs -0.3% vs -0.4%; CAC 40 -0.4% vs +0.8% vs -0.2% vs +0.1%; DAX -0.4% vs +0.9% vs -0.2% vs -0.3%;Nikkei -0.2% vs -0.6% vs -2% vs -1.1%; Hang Seng +07% vs +0.4% vs -4%!!! vs +0.5%; Korean KOSPI flat vs -0.8% vs -1.6% vs -0.1%;Indian Sensex +0.9% vs -0.9% vs +0.5%. U.S. stock opening higher on bank earnings (?): DOW +44; SPX flat; NDQ +6.70.


U.S. treasury bonds little changed except 30 yr following yesterdays rally: 10 yr 1.66% +1/16 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.83% +3/8. Long TIP 0.37% vs 0.39% +3/16! 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.57% vs 1.61%. 10 yr -81% vs -.81%.Bills 0.12% 1 month; 0.10% 3

months; 0.14% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.32% vs 0.31%. 3 mo. Libor 0.33% vs 0.34%!;  6 mo.

0.60!!! Both still falling! European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark

1.46% -4; Italy 4.93% -7; Spain 5.58% -15!; Greece 17.67% -29!!!…on 9/20: 19.75%!!!;

Portugal 7.80% -9;Ireland 4.59% -14….HUGE DECLINES AGAIN!!! 


Gold traded in a narrow range and closed at $1770.60 -$4.30. Friday’s high was $1798.10,

highest since 2/29 and it has lost $23 since. 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest

since June 1. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6/11. SUP at $1732, the

40 day, $1708, 50 day, both continuing to rise rapidly. MAJOR SUP at $1665, the 200 day.

5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1768.70 -$1.90. Crude rose but remains weak. It closed at $92.07+.83. The $87.70 low of 10/3, was lowest since 8/3! It has traded below the 40/50/200 day since 9/22! RES at the 50 day (93.95), 40 day (94.11) and the 200 day (95.94).


TB thinks traders are just trying to make it through today. The better than expected bank earnings by JPM and WFC masked problems within. Wells initially rallied in the o/n market only to fall again and is now $3401 -$1.16! JPM did likewise and is now $41.65 -.45. While deposits are sharply higher the mortgages continue to be originated and sold to YOU – the taxpayer! Is that a great racket or what? The question is: how long can they continue to do so? As long as we continue to aid and abet their stupidity!


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