9/12/12…some tidbits

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Strong lives are motivated by dynamic purposes.” – Kenneth Hildebrand…like getting elected president?

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*German Court Allows Bailout Fund to Go Ahead With Liability Limit

*Euro Gains With European Stocks After German Court Allows ESM Ratification

*Fed Seen Starting QE3 While Extending Zero Interest-Rate Forecast to 2015

*New York Homebuyers Facing Biggest risk of Fannie Rate Penalty

*U.S. Corn-Crop Outlook Decline of 13% Is Smaller Than Analysts Estimated

*Old Mutual CFO Says Insurer Planning to Repay $2.4 Billion of Debt Early

*French Yields Ignore Hollande Economic Travails to Touch Lows – !!!

*Greece Prepares to Lease Islands as State Seeks to Revive Asset-Sale Plan

*Gorman Call to Pandit Said to Spark Overnight Smith Barney Brokerage Deal

*Charities Deceive Donors in U.S. Unaware Most Money Flows to Telemarketers-!!!

*U.S. Libya Ambassador Killed as Protests Erupt Over Film in North Africa

*Debate Over What Makes Classroom Teachers Good Drives Classroom Teachers  

…what to write about…mind is spinning from a presentation by the owner of a woolen mill…brought back from extinction by two brave guys and they are hiring. No corporation or private equity would touch this with a ten foot pole…story tomorrow.

Why won’t Romney release more tax returns…after all he gave them to McCain when he was being considered for Veep? Could it be Swiss bank accounts and possible amnesty agreement…dunno? Trying to find out more but if so could be damaging.

The killing of the U.S. Ambassador to Libya over the film made by a small American company and mocking the prophet Mohammed is tragic…but this is what happens when you are dealing with some extremist fanatics…what were they thinking on this film? We have free speech but one should consider consequences of it just like with Wikileaks. This is far worse than the cartoon published in the Danish paper or Salmon Rushdie’s book…it was not made except to humiliate. Now the two political candidates are in the act. Meanwhile Israel has thrown down the gauntlet for us to support them if they declare war on Iran. Does this open the door to Iran to step up their defenses…and offenses. We should not be drawn into this but proceed on our own. This is what happens when a candidate says the we will back Israel on anything and everything. Beware of consequences of shooting off one’s mouth…and they mock Joe Biden???

The Chicago teachers strike over a clause in the new contract that uses results for teacher evaluations. No wonder they are opposed as some 80% of students are below average. Mayor Rahm Emanuel is not supporting them and we anxiously await what Obama does…he has to take a stance here.

A lot is going on and not much of it for the good…until tomorrow!


. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

Stocks rose yesterday for no apparent reason…go figure! Volume rose modestly to 3.5b shares vs 3.21B vs 3.7B. The range since July 29th is 1.81B (8/31) to 3.94B shares (9/6)!  NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market rose slightly to a ‘hex’ of 666M shares vs a very weak 616M shares. There have been just TWO 700M+ days since 8/3, the highest since was 8/7 The high ytd was 8/1’s 1.03B shares! Since 6/29 just 7 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 606M, and the highest since 8/3 is 754M shares. There is STILL NO retail! The average for 2012 is just 782M shares and since 6/29 just 677M shares, levels not seen since week ended 12/30/11! 76 of the last 110 sessions have been less than 800M shares (69%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 19 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 3/16’s high for 2012 of 1.65B (4.85B including ETNs) and just 17 have been above 900M – 848M is the 12 month average and slipping! Since 11/1 there have been just 16, 1B share days…12 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been 39 sessions less than 700M shares. 192 of the last 203 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (95%)!

Advance/Declines were positive and have now been so just seven times in 16 sessions: +2.1x vs -1.5x vs +2.1x vs +3.8x vs -1.1x on NYSE and +1.5x vs -1.4x vs +1.4x vs +3.6x vs -1.3x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar: +3.2x vs -2x vs +3.1x vs +14.1x vs +1.1x on NYSE and +1.4x vs -2.6x vs -1.1x vs +6.8x vs -1.1x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs plunged for a second day to 296 vs 344 vs 478 vs 515 (a new cycle high), while new lows were steady at 41 vs 45. The ratio is +7.2x vs +7.6x vs +10.6x vs +12x vs +4.7x! The S&P VIX rose slightly for a second day to 16.32 vs 16.28 +.04, and is now up 13.4% vs a 19.9% decline from the highest level since 8/2 (17.98 intraday high of 18.96!), and has now  risen for 11 of the last 15 days after posting a 13.45, the low for 2012.

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow +0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.1 %vs +1.9% vs +0.1%; Dow Transports +0.7% vs +0.5% vs +0.6% vs +1.9% vs -1.1%;Dow Utilities -0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs +1.3%? vs -0.5%; S&P 500 +0.3% vs -0.6% vs +0.4% vs +2.0% vs -0.1%; Nasdaq Composite FLAT vs -1.0% vs flat vs +2.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.3%; Nasdaq 100 -0.1% vs -1.3% vs -0.2% vs +2.3% vs -0.2%; Russell 2000 +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.5% vs +2.0% vs -0.1%; NYSE Financials +1%? vs -0.7% vs +1.2% vs +2.5% vs -0.1% (KBW Banks +0.8% vs -0.8% vs +1.6% vs +2.9% vs -0.2%; Nasdaq Banks +0.4% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs +1.6% vs -0.3% vs +0.7%). NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC +4.6%? vs -2.5%! vs +4.9%! vs +5% vs -0.4%; AIG -0.7% vs -2%! C +2.5%? vs -2.8%.

Global stocks stronger, especially Asia: FTSE Flat vs -0.3% vs flat vs +0.3% vs +0.7%; CAC 40 +0.4% vs -0.4% vs -0.4% vs +1% vs +1.3%; DAX +0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.8% vs +1.5%;Nikkei +1.7% vs -0.7% vs flat vs +2.2% vs flat; Hang Seng +1.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs +3.1% vs +0.3%; Korean KOSPI +1.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.3% vs +2.6% vs +0.4%;Indian Sensex +0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +2% vs +0.2% vs -0.7%. U.S. stock futures stronger: DOW +46; SPX +5.60; NDQ +15.25!

Bonds are off overnight following another selloff yesterday – long TIPS weak! 10 yr 1.75% -7/16 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.91% -1-1/8. Long TIP 0.47% vs 0.41%. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.46% flat.10 yr -.66% vs .70% .Bills 0.09% 1 month; 0.10% 3 months; 0.13% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.29%. 3 mo. Libor 0.39%!!! and 6 mo. 0.68%!!! continuing to drop!!! European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark 1.62% +8!; Italy 5.03% -3; Spain 5.53% -10; Greece 20.37% -68!!!; Portugal 7.81% -18!!!; Ireland 5.28% -18.

Gold consolidated slightly again on a second straight inside session (lower high, higher low). It closed $1734.90 -$1.10. It is up $78.80 since 8/30!!! 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The hit now stands at just $38 since 2/28!!! 2/28’s $1792.70 the intraday high not seen since 11/16! The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6/11. SUP at $1637, the 40 day, $1628, both rising slowly. MAJOR SUP at $1654, the 200 day. 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1740.40 +$5.50, o/n high $1749.50. Crude staged a modest rally but took out the 200 day. It closed at $97.17 +0.61, 12 days after an intraday high of $98.29 on a negative ‘key reversal’ killed the rally! 8/30’s close was $93.35, lowest since 8/16! SUP at the 40 day (93.20), and the 50 day (91.77), both rising sharply again! RES/SUP at the 200 day (96.61). Currently $97.17 flat, o/n high $98.06!

Forgive TB for not forecasting or believing in a rally yesterday…for what earthy reason? Retail remains non-existent. The weakest sectors continue to be tech. utilities and the volatile Transports. The worst performer was the Nasdaq 100 -0.1% (off just 3.5 points with GOOG providing 2 of them and Apple 1.8), all others were up! The surprise has been the Russell 2000 small cap which was rose 0.3%. Can it continue?

German high court ratifed the ECB bailout plan to buy bonds but with limits. Euphoria reigns supreme…see Europe debt yields above and be prepared for a shock.


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