9/5/12…a woman for president?

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Happiness makes up in height what it lacks in length.”

 – Robert Frost

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Draghi’s Plan Is Said to Pledge Unlimited Bond Purchases With NO Yield Cap!!!

*Troika Returns to Scrutinize Athens as Budger Showdown Looms – good luck!

*European Shares Gain With Euro on ECB’s Bond Plan as S&P 500 Flattens – late!

*ING Raises $3 Billion on Sale of Capital One Financial Shares – kudos!

*Pimco’s Gross Says Age of Credit Expansion Leading to High Returns is Over -!!!

*FedEx Projects First Earnings Decline Since 2009 as Global Economy Slows – !!!

*Deutsche Bank Said to Eliminate About 85 Equities Jobs in Tokyo, Hong Kong

*Lehman Escaping Detroit Means 90% Loss on Commercial Properties – swell!!!

*Rewards Outweigh Risks of Showcasing Bill Clinton in Obama Re-Election Bid

*Parties Raise Cash Even With Ban on ‘Soft Money’ – and our $100 million!!!

*San Jose Police Disability Retirement Bids as Rules Tighten – they have many ways!

…after watching last week’s RNC and last nights DNC, TB has concluded it is time for a woman to run for president. At least with the two men’s wives they told no lies, kept their tone positive and showed intelligence. TB is a Rotarian and they are the only two who spoke officially that could pass the ‘four way test.’

TB said last week he would critique the DNC as well as the RNC. Here goes:

Just as lobbyists threw lavish parties for Republican congressmen in Tampa, the DNC threw lavish parties for major fundraisers in Charlotte. Very major – just as the lobbyists were. These fundraisers all want something and they get it. Be it a position in the administration or an ambassadorship – but there is nothing new in that.

As for the tone of the speakers, it was more positive for Obama than negative on Romney. Romney’s continued the ‘anything but Obama’ pledge from four years ago and it is becoming tired. The most effective thing last night was the clip showing Romney debating Ted Kennedy for the U.S. Senate. He was clearly pro-abortion and Roe v. Wade! How does one flip on something like that? Either you are for it or not…like gay marriage (whatever you want to call it, it should be permitted). Most of the speakers were rah-rah speeches to stir things up. Least effective was Harry Reid who has now backed down (without admitting it) from Romney paid no taxes for ten years to his taxes were way too low. Most effective, besides the first lady, was Deval Patrick, the current governor of Massachusetts who succeeded Romney and said things were not as Romney said…fact-check that! Most uplifting was San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro who along with his brother who is running for Congress started with nothing. There was a theme here: you can do it in America but they are trying to stop you from it. Given the GOP stand on taxes, support for Grover Norquist, attempts to get voter registration only with state issued ‘picture ID’s’ (when fraud is listed at just 0.0004%!), battles over women’s rights, it will be interesting what the voters say now that they have heard the other side – clearly.

That’s enough for today…will the DNC give TB some real ammo tonight? Stay tuned.

TB

. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

Stocks put in  mixed day that showed a puzzling lack of correlation between the indices. Volume rebounded to 3.18B shares vs 1.81B shares vs 2.45B, establishing a new range since 7/29 –1.81B to 3.18B shares.  NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market declined to 676M from 746M shares vs 512M vs  509M vs 516m vs 504M – lowest since 8/15! There has only been ONE 700M+ day since 8/7, the highest since 8/3 – neither were even close to 800M shares The high was 8/1’s 1.03B shares! Since 6/29 just 7 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 602M, and the highest since 8/3 is 754M shares. There is STILL NO retail! The average for 2012 is just 785M shares and since 6/29 just 678M shares, levels not seen since week ended 12/30/11! 71 of the last 105 sessions have been less than 800M shares (69%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 19 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 3/16’s high for 2012 of 1.65B (4.85B including ETNs) and just 17 have been above 900M – 858M is the 12 month average and dropping! Since 11/1 there have been just 16, 1B share days…12 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been 35 sessions less than 700M shares. 187 of the last 198 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (94%)!

Advance/Declines were positive for the fourth time in 11 sessions: +1.5x vs +2.3x vs -2.5x vs +1.5x vs +1.3x on NYSE and +1.5x vs +1.7x vs -3x vs +1.5x vs +1.1x on Nasdaq. Breadth was positive but barely: +1.1x vs +3.7x vs -4.3x vs +1.2x vs -1.2x on NYSE and +1.1x vs +1.6x vs -6.5x vs +1.4x vs -2.2x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs surged again to 310! vs 207 vs 122 (7/3’s 504 is the high), as new lows also rose to 68 vs 46 vs 58. The ratio remains at +4.5x. The S&P VIX however ROSE slightly to 17.98 +.51, a 29% gain to the highest level since 8/2 and has risen for 9 of the last 11 days after posting a 13.45, the low for 2012.

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow -0.4% vs +0.7% vs -0.8% vs flat vs -0.2%; Transports FLAT? vs +0.3% vs -1.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.2%;Dow Utilities +0.1% vs -0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs -0.2%; S&P 500 -0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.1%; Nasdaq Composite +0.3% vs +0.6% vs -1.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.1%; Nasdaq 100 FLAT? vs +0.7% vs -1.1% vs +0.1% vs flat; Russell 2000 +1.2%!!! vs +0.4% vs -1.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.5%; NYSE Financials flat vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs flat (KBW Banks +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs +0.6%? vs -0.2%; Nasdaq Banks +0.7% vs +0.1% vs -0.9% vs +0.8% vs -0.5%). NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC +0.1% vs +1% vs -1.1% vs +0.5% vs -1%; GE -0.9% vs +0.7%?

Global stocks lower, except Germany?: FTSE -0.5% vs -0.9% vs +0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.5%; CAC 40 -0.3% vs -0.6% vs +1.4% vs -0.5% vs -0.6%; DAX UP 0.3% vs -0.5% vs +1.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.5% vs +0.7%;Nikkei -1.1%! vs -0.1% vs -1.6% vs -1% vs +0.4%; Hang Seng -1.5%!!! vs -0.7% vs -0.4% vs -1.2% vs -0.1%; Korean KOSPI -1.7%!!! vs -0.35 vs -0.1% vs -1.2% vs +0.6%;Indian Sensex -0.7% vs +0.3% vs flat vs +0.3% vs +0.1%. U.S. stocks slightly lower: DOW -2; SPX -0.20; NDQ -4.

Bonds little changed yesterday and overnight: 10 yr 1.57% +1/32 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.68% -1/64. Long TIP 0.38% -1/4. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.42% losing ground again! 10 yr -.71% vs -.69!Bills 0.10% 1 month; 0.10% 3 months; 0.13% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.28%. 3 mo. Libor 0.41%! and 6 mo. 0.70% vs 0.71%!!! continuing to slip. European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark 1.45% +2; Italy 5.60% -4; Spain 6.48% -3; Greece 21.33% +9; Portugal 8.76% +7; Ireland 5.74% -3. All TB can say  – is bloody hell???

Gold continued its rally and is now up $39 in two sessions. It closed at 1696.00 +$8.40 after an intraday HIGH of $1701.60 highest since 3/27/12. 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The hit stands at just $78 since 2/28!!! 2/28’s $1792.70 intraday high not seen since 11/16! The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6/11. SUP at $1620, the 40 day, $1614, the 50 day. MAJOR SUP at $1654, the 200 day. 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1695.30 -.70. Crude rallied to $97.37 before imploding and closed at $95.30 -$1.17, seven days after an intraday high of $98.29 on a negative ‘key reversal’ killed the rally! Last Thursday’s close was $93.35, lowest since 8/16! SUP at the 40 day (91.97), and the 50 day (90.18). RES at the 200 day (96.65). Currently $95.57 +.27. How do you play that?   

Now get this…after hitting the lowest total NYSE volume on Friday of 1.81B shares it ROSE to 3.18B yesterday – not high but for the past several weeks the highest since 7/29 while shares executed on the Big Board actually rose fell to 639M from a still weak 746M? Meanwhile Advance/Declines and Breadth were only slightly positive and the S&P VIX gapped up and rose to 17.98 with a high of 18.96 – highest since 8/2!

But the weirdest thing was the divergence of the indices: the Dow was -0.4% and the S&P -0.1%. Dow Transports, the Nasdaq 100 and NYSE Financials were all flat. In financials even the subsets were different with the KBW Banks +0.1% and the Nasdaq Banks +0.7%? That leaves the Nasdaq Composite +0.3%, Russell 2000 the big gainer +1.2%? and the lagging Dow Utilities +0.1%. A very strange brew! Meanwhile Apple added 7 index points to the NDQ 100 – without which it would have been down 0.1%. Hello???

BofA rose 0.1% and closed at $8.00 up just 1 penny On Friday the faux banks carried the day and again yesterday while the big banks sagged? Go figure! MS was the big gainer at +3.4% while the loser was UBS -0.5% – GS was up 0.7%.

Watching and waiting…have you any better ideas?

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