8/31/12…feeling good?…again?

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “We all have the extraordinary within us, waiting to be released.” – Jean Houston

TB’s Quote of the Day: “Religion is the opiate of the people.” – Karl Marx…not so, political convention speeches are…promises, promises, promises…broken!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*ECB Said to Get Sole Power Over Banking Licenses in EU Commission Proposal – !!!

*Stocks Rise With Commodities Before Bernanke’s Speech; Spain Bonds Decline

*Nomura to Cut Additional $1 Billion of Costs in Wholesale Banking Business

*Spain is Said to Weight Recapitalizing Bankia Group Without Money From EU – !!!

*Europe Trounces U.S. as Returns on Corporate Debt Reach 9% – …but…why? Uh…

*Euro-Area Unemployment Rises to Record as Inflation Accelerates – 11.3%! Romney?

*Decline in U.S. Seen Perpetual Without More Immigration…says Cutting Research!

*Romney Accepts Republican Nomination With Vow to Renew Obama’s Lost Hope

*Harvard University Cheating Investigation Under Way for About 125 Students

*Romney’s Critique of Cost of Obama Health Plan Misleading – hope you felt good!

…ah a feel good speech from Romney which ended an interesting night of ‘fire ‘em up’ speeches in which we did learn a lot about Romney’s character. No doubt, character is important, but didn’t we get that with Obama too? Both are good men…even Romney and the other speakers were careful to add that…just an abject failure according to them.

The weird point in the night was the ‘mystery’ guest…which was disclosed by PBS well before: Clint Eastwood. Well, he didn’t ‘make TB’s day’ in what was a rambling, disjointed speech (?) that defies explanation. Is it dementia when you find yourself talking to an empty chair…and lacking clarity. TB means no offense to him, that is just how it sounded along with gross misstatements of fact. TB met him at the funeral of a mutual friend two years ago…how he has changed since then…physically and more importantly his speaking. Of course the party loyal loved it…perhaps they couldn’t hear?

Senator Mario Rubio’s speech was uplifting but also full of misstatements…but remember in the words of a staffer…we do not rely on factcheckers??? Aha! That way you can spew out anything without recourse…like Herman Cain or Michelle Bachman 0r for that matter, Harry Reid (Obama should have distanced himself from that lunatic as the GOP did from Bachman and Akins…tragic error). If you are going to make accusations, then be able to name your source or at least to have it verifiable!

Shame on Paul Ryan for making the same misstatement (the second time doesn’t it become a lie?) about Obama shutting down the Michigan GM plant. Romney made that statement some time ago and the Detroit Free Press and other papers said, no, THAT was Bush in 2008! As TB has said several times before: there are enough legitimate faults that Obama has to not resort to making up lies. But in the GOP it is: fool me once, shame on you, fool me two or three times…oh, what the hell…

*they persist in saying he is robbing Medicare of $750 billion…not so, that is the cost savings and supported by the CBO IF there is universal coverage

*they continue to blame Obama for the budget deficit created by the GOP AND BUSH over eight years

*they refuse to acknowledge that the crisis and bailout occurred under Bush whose administration was responsible for a failure to regulate…true, Glass-Steagall was thrown out under Clinton but on advice from Summers, Rubin, and Greenspan and had bi-partisan support.

*they continue to blame Obama for the unemployment but as Reinhart & Rogoff and other studies show following a financial crisis – not an economic slowdown, the economy comes back very slowly and the average time before long treasury yields get back to 2.5% is ten years…ten LONG years! Are they trying to fix it or just get elected?

*several speakers said that Obama is the first president since Carter too leave you worse off. WRONG! That would be Bush after EIGHT years!

To TB’s way of thinking, although he couldn’t, Romney would have been better off if the convention had ended with Rubio’s speech…leave ‘em wondering., right? As that great song goes from Chicagoand how true it is in politics:

Give ’em the old razzle dazzle Razzle Dazzle ’em Give ’em an act with lots of flash in it And the reaction will be passionate Give ’em the old hocus pocus Bead and feather ’em How can they see with sequins in their eyes?

Give ’em the old razzle dazzle
Razzle Dazzle ’em
Give ’em an act with lots of flash in it
And the reaction will be passionate
Give ’em the old hocus pocus
Bead and feather ’em
How can they see with sequins in their eyes?

Give ’em the old double whammy
Daze and dizzy ’em
Back since the days of old Methuselah
Everyone loves the big bambooz-a-ler

Give ’em the old three ring circus
Stun and stagger ’em
When you’re in trouble, go into your dance

Though you are stiffer than a girder
They’ll let you get away with murder
Razzle dazzle ’em
And you’ve got a romance

Give ’em the old Razzle Dazzle
Razzle dazzle ’em
Show ’em the first rate sorceror you are
Long as you keep ’em way off balance
How can they spot you’ve got no talent
Razzle Dazzle ’em

Razzle Dazzle ’em
Razzle Dazzle ’em

And they’ll make you a…president!

TB should stop on that note but will add: consider what will happen starting next year IF both houses and the oval office are controlled by the GOP making any opposition moot. That, to TB will be the only discernible distance as the government will continue to be run by those wealthy contributors just as Obama did for the banks!

Enjoy your long weekend…TB won’t say Labor Day because if the GOP takes full control they may eliminate it…after all it is only the wealthiest that add value and pay taxes.

Take it easy…that was a JOKE!!!


. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

Stocks were even weaker yesterday while volume was 2.45B vs 2.52B vs 2.6B vs 2.44B vs 2.56B vs 3B vs 3.05B vs 3.25B vs 2.76B vs  2.91B vs  3.1B. During the recent rally the range was 2.78B to 3.64B….doldrums! The range since 7/29’s QE surge of 4.56B (above average) remains 2.06B-4.28B shares with just 2 days above 4B! NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market barely were steady at a low 512M vs  509M vs  516m vs 504M – lowest since 8/15! Again compare to the recent rally range of 647M to 1.03B! Since 6/29 just 7 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 595M, and the highest since 8/3 is 754M shares. There is STILL NO retail! The average for 2012 is just 792M shares and since 6/29 just 685M shares, levels not seen since week ended 12/30/11! 69 of the last 103 sessions have been less than 800M shares (69%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 19 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 3/16’s high for 2012 of 1.65B (4.85B including ETNs) and just 17 have been above 900M – 859M is the 12 month average and dropping! Since 11/1 there have been just 16, 1B share days…12 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have now been 34 sessions less than 700M shares. 185 of the last 196 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (94%)!

Advance/Declines were NEGATIVE and have only been positive twice in nine sessions: -2.5x vs +1.5x vs +1.3x vs -1.1x vs +1.9x on NYSE and -3x vs +1.5x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.6x on Nasdaq. Breadth was even worse: -4.3x vs +1.2x vs -1.2x vs -1.4x vs +2.3x  on NYSE and -6.5x vs +1.4x vs -2.2x vs -1.1x vs +1.9x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs dropped to 122 vs 188 (7/3’s 504 is the high), while new lows remained stable at 58 vs 57. The ratio is+2.1x vs  +3.8x vs +2.5x vs +3x vs +2.5x. The S&P VIX gapped up on the open and rose by 4.5% to 17.83 +.77!!! for first time since 8/2 and has risen for 8 of the last 9 days after posting a 13.45, the low for 2012.

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow -0.8% vs flat vs -0.2% vs -0.3% vs +0.8%; Transports -1.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.2% vs -0.9% vs +0.1%;Dow Utilities -0.5%? vs -0.5%? vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.5%; S&P 500 -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.7%; Nasdaq Composite -1.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.5%; Nasdaq 100 -1.1% vs +0.1% vs flat vs +0.2% vs +0.6%; Russell 2000 -1.1% vs +0.4%! vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs +0.4%; NYSE Financials -0.8% vs +0.1% vs flat for 2 days vs +0.3% (KBW Banks -0.7% vs +0.6%? vs -0.2% vs flat vs +0.6%; Nasdaq Banks -0.9% vs +0.8%? vs -0.5% vs +0.5% vs +0.6%). NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -1.1% vs +0.5% vs -1% vs -1.1% vs +0.1%. Not leaders, but… C -0.9% vs +1.9%? vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs -3%. JPM -1.1%! vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs -0.2% vs -1.6%; WFC -0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.8%; USB -0.6% vs +0.6% vs +0.5% vs -2.2% vs -0.4%; GS -0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs +0.8% vs -0.6%; MS -0.3% vs +1.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.4% vs -2.4%; UBS -2.1%! vs .+0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.9% vs -1.7%. BAC closed below $8 for the second time in three sessions closing at $7.91. Bet it closes lower…any takers?

European stocks strong, Asia weak: FTSE +0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs flat vs -0.3%; CAC 40 +1.4%! vs -0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -0.5%; DAX +1.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.5% vs +0.7% vs -0.4%;Nikkei -1.6%! vs -1% vs +0.4% vs -0.6% vs +0.2% vs -1.2%; Hang Seng -0.4% vs -1.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -1.3%; Korean KOSPI -0.1% vs -1.2% vs +0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.1%;Indian Sensex flat vs +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.6%. U.S. stock strong in anticipation of Bernanke’s speech? DOW +83; SPX +9; NDQ +20.

Bonds weaker following a modest rally Thursday: 10 yr 1.65% -1/8 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.77% -9/16. Long TIP 0.46% -1/2. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.31%. 10 yr -.63% vs -.68%!Bills 0.10% 1 month; 0.09% 3 months; 0.13% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.22%. 3 mo. Libor 0.42%, and 6 mo. 0.71% and slowly slipping. European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark 1.39% +7; Italy 5.76% +1; Spain 6.65% +11; Greece 22.81% -32!!!; Portugal 9.08% -1;Ireland 5.80% +1. WOW…look at Spain and Greece…juxtaposition!

Gold barely able to hold the rally and slightly weaker for a THIRD day, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rally. It closed at 1657.10 -$5.90 after an intraday low of $1652.30, below the 200 day! 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The hit stands at $117 since 2/28! 2/28’s $1792.70 intraday high not seen since 11/16! The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6/11. SUP at $1614, the 40 day, $1610, the 50 day. MAJOR SUP/RES at $1655, the 200 day. 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1662.50 +$5.40 – weak? Crude closed at $94.62 -.87, five days after an intraday high of $98.29 on a negative ‘key reversal’ killed the rally! The low was $93.35, lowest since 8/16! SUP at the 40 day (91.43), and the 50 day (89.50). RES at the 200 day (96.70). Currently $95.28 +.66.   

Who in their right mind would be a buyer here? Might as well go to Vegas and go ‘all in’ on 00! The summer doldrums continue in the last week before Labor Day and not one day has had REAL volume of anywhere near 600M shares! Again, there would be no market were it not for the high freak traders…it reacts to their every whim – same comment as yesterday. Note that yesterday stocks and commodities were down on Euro weakness…today they are up anticipating Bernanke. Brain check: do you really think he is going to announce something special…like QE3…or even hint at it two months before a presidential election? Think people! THINK!

As has become the pattern, Transports, both Nasdaq indices and the Russell 2000 all moved in sync (-1.1%!), while all the rest were down similarly but less. The new normal!

Financials fell 0.8% a day after rising +0.1%….bizaree! BofA closed at $7.91 after closing at $8.00 with an intraday high of $8.10. 2 of 3 below! JPM fell 1.1%; UBS 2.1%.

The VIX rose again yesterday to 17.83 +.77 – that is a 15.7% gain in three days and highest since 8/2! Sept. options expiry on third Friday will be fun! Quadruple witching!

Gold slipped another $5.90 yesterday to close $1657.10 and with a low BELOW the 200 day which is major support/resistance. Crude also fell, closing at $94.62 -.87 and negating Tuesdays gain. Intraday low was $93.55, lowest since 8/16! It too is below the 200 day ($96.72).

Apple was no help yesterday…wiping out three days of gains including a record high and closing the gap from the surge to that record high. Support at $650 then $623-625, 40/50.

Market will be DEAD today as soon as the traders head for the Hampton’s, intelligently! Then we get to face the DNC!



  1. Yarnman said

    TB–I loved Romney promising “freedom of religion!” I first heard that line on my parents’ radio from FDR in his Four Freedoms speech. I half exected Mitt to follow FDR’s lead and also promise a “chicken in every pot!” I wonder if Mitt’s “freedom of religion” includes allowing mosques near Ground Zero, safety in mosques from crazed gunmen with 100-round cartridges, multiple wives for leaders of religious sects, and marriage for gay couples. Thanks for cheering me up this morning with your today’s comments! –Yarnman

    • traderbill said

      Freedom of religion but no abortions, even for incest or rape (Akins said it they way they want it). How about this? You can force a woman to have a baby but you CANNOT force her to raise it properly. Doesn’t that imply that it then becomes the responsibility of the state? Sure she can go to jail but what happens to the child. These are things they don’t think about.
      I heard a discussion on MPR yesterday of Mormons on Romney…14% won’t vote for him. Most will not just because he is Mormon. There are some serious concerns about repercussions for the church if he doesn’t perform well…why are they even having that discussion?

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