8/24/12…and the winner is…

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The great thing about getting older is that you don’t lose all the other ages you’ve been. – Madeleine L’Engle – only way to learn from experience.

TB’s Quote of the Day: “When the music is playing you have to get up and dance.” – Chuck Prince, former CEO of Citigroup to Congress…the only honest one of the bunch!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*ECB Said to Wait for German ESM Ruling Before Finalizing Bond Plan Details – zzzzzz

*HSBC in Settlement Talks With U.S. Regulators Over Money-Laundering Prob

*Euro Weakened on Debt Crisis Outlook as Commodities Decline on U.S. Economy

*Apple-Samsung Products to Be Restricted in South Korea After Court Ruling

*Money Funds Test Resolve of Geithner to Bernanke After Schapiro Defeated – very bad!

*Merkel Seeking to Keep Greece on Financial Reform Path in Hollande Talks – uh huh!

*U.K. Second-Quarter Slump Smaller Than Initially Estimated on Construction

*Nuclear Regulators Meeting With Iranians Over Access to Disputed Sites

…WALL STREET! But then you knew that! They have and always will be, unless…

We, the people, stand on our hind legs…stand against the two political parties and do something…even if we fail because that will tell us that America – the American experiment that served for nearly 250 years has failed. Welcome to reality, where Oligarchy reigns supreme and noblesse oblige is just an old, tired expression that only applied to the French.

TB had promised to get off it due to a lack of reader interest and participation. We have become lulled by the opiates of politics. A regular reader of TB’s blog and four others however, checked in…unfortunately, all in agreement. Were they the ‘silent majority’ or is the majority opposed to TB’s way of thinking? TB wasn’t asking for praise, but comment…he loves honest, intelligent, disagreement that can either persuade him that he is wrong or vice versa. That was not to be…perhaps the dissenters have given up…pity.

The reason today is back to the topic at hand is another Simon Johnson article that follows a column by another writer a couple of weeks ago: heads Wall Street wins, tails the American people lose…with either candidate. They are both bought and paid for. In Romney’s case they didn’t even need to buy this guy who can’t even decide which side of the fence he is standing on (Paul Ryan will set him straight…will he be the de facto president?).

In today’s commentary he tells of Senator Kaufman who represented Delaware from 2009-2010. Just two years as a senator? He was appointed to fill Joe Biden’s seat for the remainder of his term and had no interest in re-election – a step in the right direction! Togther with his chief-of staff Jeff Connaughton, he has written a book, The Payoff: Why Wall Street Always Wins”

Here is a link to the site. http://baselinescenario.com/

If these two people plus Simon, Lessig, Angelides, Reich, and others frustrated by seeing where our country is headed don’t convince you, God help us…because no one else can!

“Drill, baby, drill” The mantra of the 2008 McCain/Palin ticket is back. Yes, sir and while one can excuse them, since that was before the massive BP spill caused by sheer greed, Mitt Romney is back on it again. Just as they pushed the Keystone pipeline because it would create jobs – to bring Canadian oil to the roach motel that already has a glut, it is drill more despite the future being in natural gas which CAN be delivered to where it is needed and despite the risks in a much safer way than drilling offshore. Think!

That’s it for today from a frustrated, disenchanted with our government, TB

Enjoy your weekend but ask yourselves how much longer they will be happy for your kids and grandkids while the wealthiest sit in their ivory towers without compassion. Go read Blade Runner to see how wonderful (sic) their lives will be.


. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

Stocks were off for a third day – and this time worse! Even Apple succumbed to it in a way Volume was slightly lower at 3B vs 3.05B shares vs 3.25B vs 2.76B vs  2.91B vs  3.1B vs 2.6B vs 2.9B vs 2.48B vs 2.78B vs 3.07B vs 3.21B vs 3.64B. Note the relatrive size of the past three sessions and the first three which was when the rally began! The range since 7/29’s QE surge of 4.56B (above average) remains 2.06B-4.28B shares with just 2 days above 4B! NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market dipped again 592M vs to 601M vs 641M vs 551M vs 564M vs 596M vs 498M vs 567M vs 484M vs 566M vs 576M vs 637M vs 728M vs 647M vs 754M vs 826M vs 1.03B! Since 6/29 just 7 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. The average since 8/1’s 1.03B is just 621M, and the highest since 8/3 is 754M shares with an average of 607M. There is STILL NO retail! The average for 2012 is just 795M shares and since 6/29 just 698M shares, levels not seen since week ended 12/30/11! 65 of the last 99 sessions have been less than 800M shares (65%!). Since 2/29 there have been just 19 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 3/16’s high for 2012 of 1.65B (4.85B including ETNs) and just 17 have been above 900M – 869M is the 12 month average and dropping! Since 11/1 there have been just 16, 1B share days…12 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have now been 29 sessions less than 700M shares. 180 of the last 191 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (94%)!

Advance/Declines were negative for a FOURTH session and rising” -2.2x vs -1.5x vs -1.3x vs -1.3x vs +1.6x on NYSE and -2.1x vs -1.7x vs -1.3x vs -1.4x vs +1.9x on Nasdaq. Breadth was worse: -3.4x vs -1.1x vs -1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.6x on NYSE and -2.5x vs -1.2x vs -1.2x vs -1.6x vs +1.1x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs fell again to 87! vs 104 vs 284 (7/3’s 504 is the high), while new lows slipped to 50 vs 57 vs 32. The ratio is +1.7x vs  +1.8x vs +8.9x vs 5.5x. The S&P VIX rose by 5.6% to 15.95 +.85, highest since 8/8, and has been rising for fours days after posting a 13.45, the low for 2012.

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow -0.9%! vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs flat vs +0.2%; Transports -1% vs -0.5%! vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.5%;Dow Utilities -1%? vs -0.2% vs -0.6% vs flat vs -0.2%; S&P 500 -0.8% vs flat vs -0.4% vs flat vs +0.2%; Nasdaq Composite -0.7% vs +0.2%-0.3% vs flat vs +0.5%; Nasdaq 100 -0.8% vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.4%; Russell 2000 -0.8% vs -0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.8%; NYSE Financials -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +0.3% vs flat vs +0.5% (KBW Banks -1.1%! vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.6%; Nasdaq Banks -1.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.7%). NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -0.9%! vs +0.4% vs +2.3% vs +1.9% vs +0.9%. Not leaders, but… C -3%! vs -0.8% vs +3.2% vs +3.3% vs +0.7%; JPM -1.6% vs -0.6% vs +2.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.3%; WFC -0.8% vs -0.6% vs +0.9% vs +0.1% vs -0.3%; USB -0.4% vs -0.6% vs -0.6% vs +0.4% vs -0.3%; GS -0.6% vs -0.4% vs flat vs +2% vs +0.1%; MS -2.4%! vs -0.2% vs +0.4% vs +1.6% vs flat; UBS -1.7% vs +2.9% vs +2.7% vs -1.4% vs +1.5% vs +1.6% vs -0.3%. Does anyone understand UBS???

Global stocks WEAK, especially Asia: FTSE -0.3% vs +0.2% vs -1.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.4%; CAC 40 -0.5% vs -0.5% vs -1% vs +0.5% vs -0.3%; DAX -0.4% vs -0.4% vs -1% vs +0.4% vs flat;Nikkei -1.2%! vs +0.5% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.1%; Hang Seng -1.3% vs +1.2% vs -1.1% vs flat vs -0.1%; Korean KOSPI -1.2% vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs -0.2% vs flat;Indian Sensex -0.4% vs flat vs -0.2% vs +1.1% vs +0.2%. U.S. stock futures little changed with narrow ranges: DOW -2; SPX -1.70; NDQ -0.50.

Bonds continuing to rally: 10 yr 1.64% +3/8 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.75% +13/16. Long TIP 0.44% +7/8. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.30% vs -1.23% vs -1.14% – strengthening again! 10 yr -0.665 vs -0.59% vs -0.50%!Bills 0.09% 1 month; 0.09% 3 months; 0.13% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.24% vs 0.20%. 3 mo. Libor 0.42%, and 6 mo. 0.71% – moving lower again!!! European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark 1.33% -5; Italy 5.76% +8; Spain 6.39% +10; Greece 23.04% flat; Portugal 9.05% +2; Ireland 5.78% +3.

Gold not only above $1600 but ROARED yesterday! It closed at 1672.80 +$32.30!!!,  with an intraday high of $1677.50 blasting thru the elusive 200 day! 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The hit is now just $100 since 2/28! 2/28’s $1792.70 intraday high not seen since 11/16! The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. SUP at $1606, the 50 day AND $1606, the 40 day. MAJOR SUP at $1658, the 200 day. 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1670.70 $2.10. Crude closed at $96.27 +.01, but with an intraday high of $98.29 on a negative ‘key reversal’ outside the ranges of the past two days and following an inside day – a bad sign for bulls! SUP at the 40 day (90.00!), and the 50 day (88.28) – a big INCREASE! RES/SUP at the 200 day (96.74). Currently $96.02 -.25 – going down???

Profit taking in Apple while all else was even weaker: Dow 14:1 down; S&P 500 5:1; NDQ 100 4:1 (AAPL biggest loser by 5.35 points of the 21.4 lost, no winners of even 1 point, get it??? Once again though, retail was not a factor…look: All indices off between 0.7% and 1% with FOUR at -0.8% – high frequency trades will do that.

Note that Apple’s average volume prior to this week has been 17.M shares over the past year. This week it has averaged 21.5M, finally falling to 15M yesterday. TB has watched the tape on it and the action is incredible with a plethora of 100-200 share trades, the footprint of the high freak trader. So far this week it has had a higher high, lower low, lower high…will today provide a second lower low? TB thinks so…

Financials were WEAK, across the board led by Citi with a 3% drop. All banks and faux banks were down with MS -2.4% and UBS -1.7%. BofA back as most active NYSE stock fell 0.9% bur remains at $8.15…can $8 hold? TB says no!

The VIX has now been up for four straight sessions after hitting a low for 2012 on Friday (meaning call buying vs puts and probably due to options expiry), closing at 15.96 yesterday with a 5.6% increase. We are in treacherous waters and Apple may have been the catalyst for the last attempt to rally until we have a serious pullback. Bonds say so.

Did TB kill Crude yesterday? It had a buying climax to $98.29, the fell back closing up just one penny at $96.27. The first ‘break’ is usually a false break, and if so we had it as it blasted thru the 200 day then closed nearly 50 cents below it. Gold, on the other hand has accelerated rising $32.30 yesterday to $1672.80 with an intraday high of $1677.50, highest since April 12th! It too blasted thru the 200 day but unlike crude it held! Yee haw!

Could this be another of a string of bad Friday’s for stocks?.


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