8/16/12…chains?

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The more original a discovery, the more obvious it seems afterwards.” Arthur Koestler…perhaps Gates toilet will be one…like Tom Crapper’s!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*HSBC Seen Joining Credit Suisse in Sacrificing Staff to Pacify U.S. Taxman

*Wal-Mart Drops After Posting Second Quarter Sales That Trailed Estimates – !!!

*Dollar Gains Before U.S. Housing Data as Futures, Europe Stocks Fluctuate

*New York Libor subpoenas Said to Include JPMorgan, Barclays, Five Others

*Facebook Freeing 60% More Shares Seen Adding to Concerns Weighing on Stock–duh!

*Portugal’s Credit-Default Swap Rally Signals Gain from Pain – for now…pullease!!!

*Gold Runs Out in Lisbon as Declining Prices Compound History of Debt Crisis – ???

*Merkel Praises Canadian Austerity as Debt-Deficit Model in Europe’s Crisis

*Militants Attack Pakistan Air Base as Security Forces Engage in Gun Battle – !!!

*Ryan Learning Romney Ropes on run as Staff Studies Him Via Videoconference

Another mixed day that showed little during the session. Volume dipped slightly and remains weak at 2.6B vs 2.9B vs 2.48B vs 2.78B vs 3.07B vs 3.21B vs 3.64B. The range since 7/29’s QE surge of 4.56B (above average) remains 2.06B-4.28B shares with just 2 days above 4B! NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market dropped sharply again nearly to Monday’s low: 498M vs 567M vs 484M vs 566M vs 576M vs 637M vs 728M vs 647M vs 754M vs 826M vs 1.03B! Just 7 of the last 32 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. NYSE volume is running just 20% of total NYSE volume. Last week it averaged a pathetic 631M shares! There is NO retail! The average for 2012 is just 804M shares and since 6/29 just 727M shares, levels not seen since week ended 12/30/11! 59 of the last 93 sessions have been less than 800M shares. Since 2/29 there have been just 19 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 3/16’s high for 2012 of 1.65B (4.85B including ETNs) and just 17 have been above 900M – 888M is now the 12 month average. Since 11/1 there have been just 16, 1B share days…12 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have now been 23 sessions less than 700M shares. 174 of the last 185 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (94%)!

Advance/Declines were modestly positive at +1.7x vs -1.1x vs -1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.3x on NYSE and +2.3x vs -1.6x vs -1.3x vs -1.3x vs +1.2x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar: +1.7x vs -1.1x vs -1.8x vs +1.6x vs +1.8x on NYSE and +1.8x vs -1.6x vs -1.2x vs 1:1 vs +1.5x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs dropped back to a weak 161 vs 190 (7/3’s 504 is the high), while new lows were steady at 67 vs 66. The ratio slipped to a weak +2.4x vs +2.9x vs +2.6x vs +3.3x vs +4x. The S&P VIX FELL to 14.63 -.22. On Monday it was 13.70 just .04 from the low of the year!

Here are the results of last 5 sessions: Dow -0.1% vs flat vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs -0.1%; Transports +1.2%! vs +0.4% vs flat vs +0.3% vs -0.5%;Dow Utilities -0.5% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.1%; S&P 500 +0.1% vs flat vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs flat; Nasdaq Composite +0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.2%; Nasdaq 100 +0.5% vs flat vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.1%; Russell 2000 +0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.3%; NYSE Financials +0.2% vs flat vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% (KBW Banks +0.4% vs flat vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.1%; Nasdaq Banks +0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%). NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC +0.9% vs +0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.3%; GE flat vs -0.2% vs -0.5%. Not leaders, but…C -0.1% vs flat vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs flat; JPM -0.1% vs +0.3% vs +0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.6%; WFC flat for a second day vs +0.4% vs flat for two days???; USB +0.5% vs -0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.3% vs +0.1%; GS -0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.6% vs +1%; MS +1.3% vs -0.9% vs -0.4% vs -0.7% vs +1%; UBS -0.3% vs -0.7% vs -0.7% vs +0.5% vs -0.4%.

Global stocks weak for a second day: FTSE -0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.2%; CAC 40 -0.2% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.9% vs -0.4%; DAX flat vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.3%;Nikkei +1.8% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs -1% vs -0.8%; Hang Seng -0.5% vs -1.2% vs +1.1% vs -0.3% vs +1.1%; Korean KOSPI +0.1% vs closed vs +1.3% vs +0.3% vs +2%;Indian Sensex -0.4% vs closed vs +0.5% vs flat vs -0.2%. U.S. stock futures little changed but at session lows: DOW +12; SPX +1.80; NDQ +4.50.

Bonds were smashed again yesterday but up slightly overnight! 10 yr 1.81% +3/32 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.91% +1/4. Long TIP 0.59% +1/4. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.13%; 10 yr -0.46%Bills 0.10% 1 month; 0.08% 3 months; 0.14% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.27%. 3 mo. Libor 0.43%, and 6 mo. 0.72% – both trading below 0.45% and 0.73%. European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark 1.52% -4; Italy 5.80% +6; Spain 6.51% -7; Greece 23.72% -2; Portugal 9.49% -3; Ireland 5.86% +1.

Gold still holding above $1600, and closed little changed at 1606.10 -.50? 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The hit is $165 since 2/28! 2/28’s $1792.70 intraday high not seen since 11/16! The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. SUP at $1599, the 40 day and $1603, RES at  $1662, the 200 day. 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1606.50 -.10. Crude remains lackluster. It closed at $94.33 +.90. SUP at the 40 day (87.53), and the 50 day (86.78), both still rising! RES at the 200 day (96.66). First SUP is $89.17, the 11/1/11 low, SUP $92.52-54, the lows of 12/16. Currently $94.33 unched.

There is a total absence of retail…can you blame them? Only a fool would play in a market like this…er invest…speculate is quite another thing.

There is no point in commenting further in what is a random market!

Financials continue to lose their momentum and even the small percentage gains make the miniscule price changes of less than 10 cents a share, well…meaningless! BofA continued its rally yet still has not reached $8…tells you something!

. . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)

…TB believes the Mitt doth protesteth too much. He is openly against financial regulation and if Wall Street has its way the people will be ‘in chains.’ They have already stripped us of our hard-earned money. True, Biden’s comments to a crowd largely of African Americans brought back visions of slavery, but financial slavery is just as bad and until we face that fact the wealth gap will continue to widen and discontent will rise.

This is not a communist statement…it is a historical fact backed by the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, any number of dictatorships…but not here. No sir, not America where the people own the government…or is that Wall Street these days?

We bailed them out, took no one to task and allowed them to keep on making their obscene bonuses (hey provide no social value yet do this at shareholders expense) under the leadership of Jamie Dimon they resist any and all regulatory reform.  They destroy any regulator who is appointed thru their Senate serfs.

No, this is not a communist or socialist statement, but we will reach a breaking point and a true leader and uniter (of blacks and latinos) will emerge…and we had better hope it is a benevolent one that will fix the problem without upsetting the balance. We have only to look at the Tea Party to see how simple it is…of course they were backed by the Koch brothers who funded it. Whatever happened to preserving the status quo? We have reached the tipping point…but we can totter on the fulcrum for quite some time before the inevitable happens.

Have a great day!

TB

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