8/13/12…on Wisconsin

This week’s economic calendar is quite full of interesting indicators with an emphasis on inflation and manufacturing activity. The highlights of the week will be July Retail Sales (Tuesday), the July CPI (Wednesday, and July Housing Starts (Thursday). We will also get the July PPI and June Business Inventories (Tuesday), the August Empire State Manufacturing Survey and July Industrial Production (Wednesday), the Philadelphia Fed Survey (Thursday), and preliminary August Consumer Sentiment and July Leading Indicators (Friday). Courtesy of Steve Wood, Insight Economics, Walnut Creek, CA
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Euro Gains as German Bonds Decline; Stocks Pare Losses
*Hedge Funds Capitulate on European Shorts
*Merkel Handed Sub-Zero Yields as ECB Plan Gains Traction
*Homebuilder Stocks Surge With New Sales 50% Below Average
*Ryan Says He Gave ‘Several Years’ of Tax Returns to Romney Camp
*Romney-Ryan Could Be Just the Ticket for a Useful Debate – or not!
*Google Plans to Eliminate 4,000 Jopbs at Motorola Division – !!!
Facebook’s Drop Limits Goldman Sachs Gain as Lockup Ends – oops!
*Hedge Funds Reduce Wagers After Longest-Ever Commodities Rally!!!
*Standard Chartered’s Fitness is Key Grounds for Shutdown
Another barely positive day except for the Russel 2000 which fell 0.2%.Volume declined once again to 2.78B vs 3.07B vs 3.21B vs 3.64B vs 3.01B shares vs 3.75B vs 4.12B shares vs 4.34B! The range since 7/29’s QE surge of 4.56B (above average) remains 2.06B-4.28B shares with just 2 days above 4B! Today’s was the lowest since 7/6 and tied 7/9 for second lowest of the year!  NYSE stocks executed without the aid of the ETN market also plunged establishing yet another lower low since 7/3: 566M vs 576M vs 637M vs 728M vs 647M vs 754M vs 826M vs 1.03B – that is 2nd lowest of 2912, bested only by 7/3’s 466M shares on a half-day session! Just 7 of the last 29 sessions have surpassed 800M shares. NYSE volume is running just 20% of total NYSE volume and reached just 24% on the big volume day that was the start of the demise on huge volume. For the week it averaged a pathetic 631M shares! There is NO retail! The average for 2012 is just 806M shares and since 6/29 just 747M shares, levels not seen since week ended 12/30/11! 56 of the last 90 sessions have been less than 800M shares. Since 2/29 there have been just 19 ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 3/16’s high for 2012 of 1.65B (4.85B including ETNs) and just 17 have been above 900M – 901M is now the 12 month average. Since 11/1 there have been just 16, 1B share days…12 in 2012! Since 2/6 there have now been 20 sessions less than 700M shares. 171 of the last 182 sessions have been less than the 12 mo ave (89%)!
Advance/Declines were mixed and weak for the second time in three sessions at +1.2x vs +1.3x vs +1.1x vs +1.8x vs +1.7x on NYSE and MINUS 1.3x vs +1.2x vs -1.3x vs +1.8x vs +1.6x on Nasdaq. Breadth was also weak: +1.6x vs +1.8x vs +1.7x vs +2.4x vs +2x on NYSE and 1:1! vs +1.5x vs +1.6x vs +3.9x vs +3.3x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs fell to 170 vs 222 (7/3’s 504 is the high), while new lows were stable at 52 vs 55. The ratio declined to a weak 3.3x vs +4x vs +4x vs +5.6x vs +5.4x. The S&P VIX rose declined (?) to 14.74 -.54 vs 15.36? 7/15’s 20.47 was highest since June 15th. 13.66 set on 3/16 is the low for the year!
Here are the results of last 5 sessions, last of the declines have fallen off: Dow +0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.2 vs +0.2%; Transports +0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.1%;Dow Utilities +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs flat; S&P 500 +0.2% vs flat vs +0.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.2%; Nasdaq Composite +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.7%; Nasdaq 100 +0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.9% vs +0.7%;Russell 2000 DOWN 0.2%! vs +0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.7%; NYSE Financials +0.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +0.2% (KBW Banks +0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.8% vs +0.1%; Nasdaq Banks -0.4%! vs -0.2% vs flat vs +0.7% vs -0.2%). NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC +0.3% vs +0.3% vs flat vs +0.4% vs +2.8%. Not leaders, but…C +0.1% vs flat for two days vs +1% vs +4.2%; JPM +0.1% vs -0.6% vs +0.4% vs +2% vs +0.6%; WFC flat for a second day vs -0.4% vs -0.1% vs -1%; USB +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs -1.4%; GS -0.6% vs +1% vs +0.2% vs +1.2% vs +1%; MS-0.7% vs +1% vs +0.5% vs +2.5% vs +2.6%; UBS +0.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.8% vs +1.7% vs +1.2%.
European stocks doing better, Asia weaker, except India. FTSE -0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -0.4% vs flat; CAC 40 +0.4% vs -0.9% vs -0.4% vs -0.7% vs +0.9%; DAX +0.3% vs -0.8% vs -0.3% vs -0.5% vs +0.6%; Nikkei -0.1% vs -1% vs -0.8% vs +0.9% vs +0.9%; Hang Seng -0.3% vs -0.3% vs +1.1% vs +0.4% vs +1.7%; Korean KOSPI -0.7% vs +0.3% vs +2%! vs +0.9% vs +0.1%;Indian Sensex UP 0.4% vs flat vs -0.2% vs flat vs +1.1% vs +1.3%. U.S. stock futures not available.
Bonds were slightly weaker but still off lows after 10 yr traded to 1.72%! About unchnaged overnight: 10 yr 1.66% +7/16 – record low of 1.40%; 30 yr 2.75% +15/16. Long TIP 0.42% +1 pt. 0.28% is record low!The 5 yr TIP yields -1.23%; 10 yr -0.61%Bills 0.08% 1 month; 0.11% 3 months; 0.14% 6 months. Reverse Repo 0.25%. 3 mo. Libor 0.44%!!!, and 6 mo. 0.72% – both trading below 0.45% and 0.73%. European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark 1.44% vs 1.38%; Italy 5.84% vs 5.88%; Spain 6.76% vs 6.85%; Greece n/a vs 23.39%; Portugal n/a vs 9.56%; Ireland n/a vs 5.82%.
Gold holding above $1600, remains rangebound and had an outside day with a range of $1629-1606 yet closed at 1622.80 +$2.60? 7/12’s intraday low of $1547.60 was lowest since June 1. The hit is $147 since 2/28! 2/28’s $1792.70 intraday high not seen since 11/16! The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. RES/SUP at $1600, the 40 day and $1603, then $1664, the 200 day. 5/2’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Currently $1624.90 +.10. Crude lackluster as usual lately following last Friday’s HUGE rally of 4.9%! It closed at $92.87 -.49. SUP at the 40 day (86.80), and the 50 day (86.20), both still rising! RES at the 200 day (96.65). First SUP is $89.17, the 11/1/11 low, RES/SUP $92.52-54, the lows of 12/16.
Currently $93.60 +.79.
Advance/declines are mixed and weak while breadth remains very thin with the Nasdaq coming in at 1:1! The best indicator remains VOLUME which plunged yet again to 2.78B shares in a tie with 7/9 for the lowest since 7/6, while NYSE trades executed on the floor fell to 566M vs 576M, second lowest of the year following 7/3’s 466M! The average for the week was just 631M shares which means NO sign of retail! The Dow and S&P were little changed for a fourth session, +0.3%/+0.2% vs -0.1%/flat vs +0.1% vs +0.2%. Attesting to the high freak trading is this: for an UNHEARD OF FIFTH straight session, both Nasdaq indices rose by 0.1% vs +0.2-0.3% vs -0.1-0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.7%! The Russell had been in this grouping but fell 0.2% Friday – breaking ranks which is usually a sign of bad things to come.
Financials continue to lose their momentum and even the faux banks and brokers were mixed. BofA remains the third most active NYSE stock, when it had been numero uno for a year or more!
  . . .  – – –  . . . (SOS!)  . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!) . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS!)
…Spent the weekend in Milwaukee with friends and went to a reception for their daughter who was recently married in Berkeley. Downtown Milwaukee is really nice…reminds me of the Chicago River area of Chicago. Will be back tomorrow.
So Romney picked Paul Ryan for a running mate…seems he will be upstaged by Ryan’s firebrand nature. Someone noted that both conservatives and liberals were happy with the choice…for differing reasons!
That’s all for today,
TB
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