5/31/12…take ‘er down!

There will be no more commentaries until Tuesday. TB

 

From Keep Calm and Carry On: “Armaments, universal debt and planned obsolescence – those are the pillars of western prosperity.” – Aldous Huxley

 

“Let us all be happy, and live within our means even if we have to borrow the money to do it with”” – Artemus Ward

 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “You cannot be mad at somebody who makes you laugh – It’s as simple as that.” – Jay Leno – really, Jay? What about politicians???

 

Bloomberg Top Stories:

 

*Italy Presses Germany for More Aggressive Efforts to Snuff Out Debt Crisis – crisis makes for strange bedfellows TB

*European Stocks Rise With S&P Futures Before U.S.Data; Spanish Bonds Gain – watch out!

*JPMorgan CIO Pricing of Derivatives Said to Differ From Investment Bank’s –egad!!!

*Bankia Bailout May be Too Expensive as Spanish Borrowing Cost Near Record

*Hedge Fund ETF Weapons Turn Dangerous in Untrained Hands of Solo Investors – do tell!

*Boeing’s Cargo Jet Orders Dwindle to Zero as Air Shipping Slumps – This is huge!!! TB

*Dimon $2 Billion Blunder Shows Derivatives Bets No Substitute for Capital – leverage again!

*Woman Who couldn’t Be Muzzled by Citigroup Wins $31 Million Over Bad Loans – kudos, BUT why wasn’t Pandit charged under Sarbanes-Oxley? Because no one else has been??? TB

 

The market giveth and the market taketh away…almost instantly eradicating the much ballyhooed rally of Tuesday Facebook set yet another record for the worst-handled IPO in history with a new low of $27.86 (-26.7% since pricing) and closing at $28.19 for a 2.3% loss pm the day and off 36% from the opening day high! Since peaking on 5/1 at the highest level since the crash, 13338.66, the Dow has been DOWN for 15 of the past 20 sessions, and the loss is now 7% below that days close! The Dow is now up just 1.4% ytd but still down 6.1% from the 3/30/12 close! Dow Utilities remain the only index up qtd, but even they lost 0.8% yesterday and are now up just 1.5%! As for Financials, so far this quarter they are off 13%! Don’t you wish you sold in May?…early May or April?

 

Note that Apple had a big gain and the only one on the Nasdaq 100 adding 5.8 index points yet the 100 was still off 0.8%!!! If Apple had been down??? Ouch!

 

NYSE stock volume rose slightly to a still below average to 3.47B shares from 3.3B. Friday’s 2.74B was the low for 2012. NYSE shares executed on the Big Board also rose slightly to a below average 769M vs 714M. Friday’s 594M was the low for 2012. 22 of the last 38 sessions have been less than 800M shares!!! Since 2/29 there have now been just SEVEN ‘average’ days (mostly down!), including 3/16’s high for 2012 of 1.65B, but average has fallen to 816M and just eight have been above 900M – 960M is 12 month average. Since 11/1 there have been just nine 1B share days…only five in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been SIX sessions less than 700M shares. 129 of the last 143 sessions have been less than the 12 month average! Advance/Declines were huge…compare to Tuesday’s positive numbers: -6.3x vs +3.7x on NYSE and -3.7x vs +2.3x on Nasdaq. Breadth was evn worse: -12.2x!!! vs +7x on NYSE and -5.9x! vs +2.7x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs were more than halved to 54 vs 119, the low was 34 (high was 420 on 3/26), while new lows doubled to 151 vs 7. After just one positive session the ratio is back to -3x vs a puny +1.7x. The S&P VIX, which had worked back down to 21.03 rose by 3.11 to (14.8%!) to 24.14, nearing the 200 day at 25.73!

 

Here are the results of last 7 sessions, only three positive! Dow -1.3% vs +1% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs flat vs +1.1%; Transports -2.1%! vs +1.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.8% vs +1.2% vs +0.1% vs +2.9%; Dow Utilities -0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.3%; S&P 500 -1.4% vs +1.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.1%! vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs +1.6%; Nasdaq Composite -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs +2.5%; Nasdaq 100 -0.8% vs +1.3% vs -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.2% vs +2.7%; Russell 2000 -2%! vs +1.4% vs flat vs -0.6%  vs +0.7% vs -0.7%! vs +2.3%; NYSE Financials -2.3%!!! vs +1.3% vs -0.6% vs flat vs +0.1% vs +0.5% vs +1.4% (KBW Banks -2.5%!!! vs +1.5%; Nasdaq Banks -1.9%!!! vs +0.6%); NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -3.1% vs +4.1%; F -1.7% vs +2.3%. Not a leader but…JPM -2%! vs +0.4% and Citi down 3.8%!!!.  

 

European stocks rallying on a dead cat bounce, Asia weak for as second day: FTSE +0.9% vs -1.3%; CAC 40 +0.8% vs -1%; DAX +0.5% vs -0.7%; Nikkei -1.1%! vs -0.3%; Hang Seng -0.3% vs -1.9%! vs +1.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.6% vs -1.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.2% vs -1.3% vs -0.3% vs -3.2%!!!; Korean KOSPI -0.1% vs -0.3%; Indian Sensex -0.6% vs -0.8%. U.S. stock futures up but look at prior two days: DOW +46 vs -110! vs +82; SPX +4.60 vs -11.10 vs +9.10; NDQ +7 vs –22 vs +21! Not a pretty picture.

Bonds off slightly following a HUGE rally yesterday with l0’s and 30’s well below 2% and 3% respectively: 10 yr 1.63% -3/32, RECORD low 9/23 of 1.6855%; 30 yr 2.72% -1/4; Long TIP 0.55% -3/8. Record low yield on 5/21 of 0.535%. The 5 yr TIP yields MINUS 1.04%; 10 yr -0.48%. Bills 0.05% 1 month; 0.07% 3 months; 0.13% – down 1 bp! Reverse Repo 0.21%. 3 mo. Libor 0.47%, and 0.74% – steady. European problem sovereign 10 years, Germany-benchmark: 1.27% -1bp’s; Italy 5.81% -9; Spain 6.45% -16; Greece 29.09%!!! +77!!!; Portugal 11.38% +3; Ireland 7.73% +2.  

Gold rose but not offsetting Tuesday’s loss, closing at $1565.70 +$14.70. The hit is now $229 since 2/28, a loss of 12.5%. 2/28’s $1792.70 intraday high was not seen since 11/16! The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. Res is $1621, the 40 day and $1630, the 50 day, then $1697, the 200 day – all slipping. It is now $1567.70 +$2. Last Wednesday’s o/n low of $1526.70 was lowest since 12/29! Crude was hammered, closing at  $87.82 -$1.94 for lowest close since 10/21/11!!! On 4/26 it closed at $104.55…that is a 17% LOSS!!! RES at $96.46, the 200 DAY, the 40 day (98.97), and the 50 day (100.30) – all falling sharply. First res $89.17, the 11/1/11 low, then $92.52-54, the lows of 12/16-12/17, a prior double bottom, MINOR sup at $85???. It is now $88.05 +.23. Look out below! Cheap gas for summer?

 

TB is heading out…you know his feelings and that he feels Friday’s employment data will not help things…you are on your own…back on Monday but too late to write.

 

. . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS)   . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS)   . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS)   . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS)

 

TB thinks that Wall Street is losing control…now if we can just convince our elected representatives of that. Jamie Dimon has lost his charisma and is now just another goat. A big goat…stupid he says? But who was stupid, Jamie?

 

TB is off for a long, fun weekend…hope you have one too.

 

TB

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