4/11/12…same old, same old…or is it?

Bloomberg Top Stories:

 

*Stocks Rebound With Futures After Alcoa Profit – one stock creates a rally? Like Apple?

*Coeure Triggers Speculation ECB Will Revive Bond-Purchase Plan for Spain – yawn!

*Profit Drop at U.S. Banks Jeopardizes 2012 Share Rally as Loans Trail GDP – warned you!

*Italy Sells 11 Billion Euros of Bills as EU Crisis Concerns Boost Yields

*Unemployment Falls Fast in U.S. If more Men Pursued Higher Education – more student loans?

*LBO Firms Raise $12.6 Billion in Junk Loans for Dividends – gimme a break!

*Citi Unseats BofA as Top Bond Underwriter in Mexico – how much did they make? Bottom line!

*Cheaper Oil to Cut Grocery Bills in Food-Fuel Convergence – don’t spend it all at once…

*Germany Growing Robust From Sick Man of Europe as Demand Increases at Home – is it?

*Asia Issues Tsunami Alert After 8.6-Magnitude Quake Strikes Off Indonesia – oh boy!

*Romney Will Keep Feeling Santorum’s Sting After His Exit From Campaign-didn’t endorse him!

Finally! A big volume day…well at least above average. Yesterday’s volume surged to 4.66M shares from 3.15B shares on NYSE listed stocks – the bad news is, as virtually all bigger volume days have been – it was a big down day! NYSE stocks executed on the Big Board also exploded to 972M from 724M (lowest since March 20) right on the falling 12 month average (973M)! Since 2/29 there have now been just THREE ‘average’ days, including 3/16’s high for 2012, and the average has been just 825M shares. Since 11/1 there have been just eight 1B share days…only three in 2012! Since 2/6 there have been FIVE sessions less than 700M shares. 98 of the last 108 sessions have been less than the 12 month average! Advance/Declines were very negative for a FOURTH session: -5.8x!!! vs -4x! vs -1.4x vs -4x! vs -1.9x on NYSE and -4.5x! vs -2.4x vs -1.1x vs -5x! vs -2.4x on Nasdaq. Breadth was horrible: -12.9x!!! vs -8x!!! vs -2x vs -6x! vs -2.7x on NYSE and -11.7x!!! vs -5.2x! vs -1.2x vs -8x!!! vs -2.5x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs were very weak for a 2nd day: 60 vs  53, high was 420 on 3/26, while new lows climbed to further to 173! vs 144 vs 101. The ratio was negative for a second straight session, this time by -3x!!! vs -2x vs +1.2x vs -2x. The S&P VIX also exploded again after gapping up yesterday to 20.39 +1.58! vs 18.81, with a high of 21.06, highest since March 6! March 16’s intraday low of 13.66 was lowest since 6/20/07’s 12.75!!! Tell it goodbye!

Here are the results of the last five sessions – ALL FIVE DOWN!!! Dow -1.7% vs -1% vs -0.1% vs -1%! vs -0.5%; Transports -2.1%! vs -1.7%! vs +0.2% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; Dow Utilities -1.3%??? vs -0.6% vs -0.5% vs  flat vs flat; S&P 500 -1.7%! vs -1.1% vs -0.1% vs -1% vs -0.4%; Nasdaq Composite -1.8%!!! vs -1.1% vs +0.4%? vs -1.5%! vs -0.2%; Nasdaq 100 -1.6% vs -0.8% vs +0.6% (thank you AAPL!) vs -1.4%!! vs -0.1%; Russell 2000 -2.4%!!!! vs -1.8%!!! vs -0.3% vs -1.7%!!! vs -0.7%; NYSE Financials -2.2%!! vs -1.4%! vs -0.3% vs -1.6%!!! vs -1%. NYSE Financial Leaders: BAC -4.4%!!! vs -3.3%!! vs +0.3% vs -3.1%!! vs -2%!; GE -2.4%!! vs -1.5%! vs -1.3%! vs -1.1%! vs -0.3%; F -3.5%!!! vs -2% vs -0.3% vs -1.1%! vs +0.2%; Citi -3.3%!!! vs -2.4%! vs -0.7% vs -3.7%!!! Since peaking at $38.40 on 3/19, it has fallen by 14.4% to $32.86!!! This market is in deep trouble!

European equity markets up, Asia down (careful though as we erased a bad sixth day!): FTSE +0.7% vs -0.9% vs closed two days vs +0.4%; CAC40 +1.4% vs -1.6% vs closed two days vs +0.2% vs -0.5%; DAX +1.5% vs -1.1% vs closed two days vs -0.1%; Nikkei -0.8% vs -0.1% vs -0.81% vs -0.5% vs -2.3%!; Hang Seng -1.1% vs -1.2% vs closed vs -1% vs closed; Korean KOSPI Closed vs -0.1% vs -1.6% vs flat vs +0.5%; Indian Sensex -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -1.5% vs closed two days;. U.S. stocks futures slightly better – but they were yesterday morning too!: DOW +80; SPX +10; NDQ +17. Bonds weaker following FIVE straight up strong sessions and gapping up Thursday. 10’s closed at 1.98% but back above 2% while 30‘s are still way above 3%.10 yr 2.3% -7/16 vs 1.98%!. RECORD low 9/23 of 1.6855%; 30 yr 3.18 -1-1/16; Long TIP 0.79%!. It was 0.57% at high. The 5 yr TIP yields MINUS 1.27%; 10 yr -.26%. Bills 0.08% 1 month; 0.08% 3 months, 6 months 0.14%. Reverse Repo 0.24% vs 0.29%! 3 mo. Libor 0.47%, and 0.73%; steady.

Gold closed below $1700 for a 20th straight session, but gained $17 making the hit $126 since 2/28, closing $1660.70 +$16.80. 2/28’s $1792.70 intraday high was not seen since 11/16! It has been above $1600 since Jan. 31, but remains below major support!!! The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. Res is $1694, the 200 day and $1696, the 40 day, then $1705, the 50 day, about to cross! Took out $1632, the 1/13/12 low! It is now $1657.60 -$3.10. Crude took another hit yesterday, closing at $101.02 -$1.44. Tuesday’s low of $100.68 was worst since 2/15/12! It remains well below the range of $105-110 which had held since 2/21!!! RES still at the 50 day (103.93), the 40 day (105.37), and major support at $95.63, the 200 day, all still rising. Crude slightly better overnight and now $101.34 +.32….zzzzz. $101.08, the April 4 low is still minor support – yesterday’s low $100.58!!! – lowest since 2/15/12!.

They tried to rally stocks Monday…they didn’t even think about it yesterday! Worse volume was highest sincebeing the high frequency or flash traders, not retail as volume remains very weak. Worst performer was the Russell 2000 (-1.8%) followed by Dow Transports (-1.7%), while in a rare event both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.1%, followed closely by the Dow. It was truly a down day, even Dow Utilities fell 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 was -0.8% but had AAPL not added 2.2 index points it to would have been off 1.1% (of 13 up stocks, Apple was only real gainer).

Whereas on Monday the rise in the Nasdaq 100 was by about 1.5:1 and half of the gain was due to Apple, yesterday there were 97 losers and just two feeble gainers (FSLR and DELL). No help from AAPL this time as it cost the index 6.7 of the 44.9 loss! All the biggies took it hard today with TEN losing at least 1 index point! Look at how AAPL has traded lately (in index points): -6.7!!! vs +2.2 vs +8 vs -4.3 vs +9.1 vs +5.6 vs -8.9 (Qtr end) vs -6.6 vs +2.5 – day it hit record high ($621.45, replaced TODAY with $644!!! Before diving $14 from the high and losing $7.80 – we have seen this in gold and other high fliers…when it happens it portends a long and steep decline. As TB has frequently said: when the market is tanking, you sell what you CAN sell, not what you WANT to sell!

The VIX is telling us the complacency days are over, rising 3.7 points in just two days to 20.39 with an intraday high of 21.06 – highest since March 6 but that was before the quarterend rally which is now making managers wonder if they have blown this quarter by going long…especially in Apple!…S&P earnings have been falling since Q4 2010…except Apple of course! As one observer put it: if Apple hiccups the market is in serious trouble.

Yesterday, TB wrote this…even more applicable today and forgot to give attribution to ISI: over the past two weeks insider selling has beaten buying by 6:1. These are corporate execs…do you think you are smarter than they are? TB doesn’t think he is!

. . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS)   . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS)   . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS)   . . .   – – –  . . .  (SOS)

…obscene politics…dominated by 412….think about that number…412 SUPERPAC’s with $154 million according to FERC as of April 9th! Doesn’t that make you proud? It disgusts TB along with a partisan Supreme Court in a horribly wrong decision…Sandra Day O’Connor’s words not TB’s! Gingrich has two superpacs (Winning Freedom and Freedom’s Lighthouse) despite only having one supporter of one of them.

Today’s column will upset some of you, it is not intended to but to cast light on other aspects of this election. If you disagree, TB respects that as always.

If the GOP loses the election they can put the blame squarely on Gingrich’s shoulders…he even called Romney a ‘liar’ and when questioned said, “well, he is.”

They all have superpacs but the one you have to love is ‘Superpac for Hire.’ It has no contributors but looks to be like those websites people sold for a lot of money…or Stephen Colbert’s ‘Making a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow. It has raised $1.08 million proving just how stupid this idea is. They jumped on Obama’s superpac (remember that by law the candidates cannot have control over them…although two of  Romney’s are former campaign workers), for accepting $1 million from Bill Maher for making sexist comments like Limbaugh (who’s disgusting comments were played down by the GOP), and Obama asked them to return Maher’s money…he was blasted for a superpac that by law he can’t control accepting the donation…is this ludicrous or what?

But to TB it is the names that are offensive. ‘American’s’ Freedom, ‘Superpac for America’ – as if they know what is best for us. Just like being a better American if you wear a flag pin or tuck the Constitution in your pocket – even if you confuse it with the Declaration of Independence as so many pols have.

Ok, now Gingrich…the master deflector of questions and making it seem like a cheap shot when someone questions his past – political or personal. His constant haranguing at the “elite’s” – what is that someone with an advanced degree? Wait, Newt, you have a PhD in Modern European History…that sounds pretty elitist to TB, so it must be for someone who disagrees with him. No Newt is a teacher…at Western Georgia University, but wait…he hasn’t taught since 1978! …or his leading the charge on Clinton’s affair, while he was having one with his own intern…and it was the second affair he had while married…both times he married them, guess that makes him a serial acquirer.

TB will come to Obama in a minute but what he can’t figure out is how conservatives can condemn Obama who appears to live a straight life, yet allow people like Gingrich and Kudlow to get away with everything. If you can explain it, he is all ears. This from a party that is anti-birth control and abortion yet doesn’t want to support the children.

Again, if TB is wrong, let him know. He is not starting from an ideologue position, but what he sees is.

As for Obama since you can’t condemn him as a man, what are his faults: his lack of leadership brought on by his not seeing himself as a politician. You can also blame him for not casting a single vote other than ‘present’ while a senator. But if you blame him for Obamacare you must condemn the GOP for coming up with the idea, for creating Medicare Part D, and with the two Bush tax cuts and two wars, creating the budget deficit – which they erroneously and knowingly continue to blame him for.

Lastly, he is a socialist…although there is simply no proof of this…social reformer is not the same thing. Would TB like to see someone else as president? He would at least like to have a reasonable and smart person to choose from who will stand up to the fringe in his party. Thanks to ‘anyone but Obama’ TB feels he has no choice, and the country will pay for it. Especially if things like the Ryan Plan continue to be promoted as good for growth.

The Ryan Plan does one and only one thing: cut spending with a promise of tax reform to close loopholes and level the playing field and make it more fair to all? All? If you are going to level it but not raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, that would mean raising the rest of us? They also scoff at raising taxes on the top 1% as only generating $55 billion in savings over ten years…only? TB believes that figure is low, especially if you get rid of the ‘carried interest’ provision for hedge fund operators. The top 1% pays an effective 18% tax rate! TB will take that and so would you! But the worst thing is saying they are embracing Simpson-Bowles, which they are not: unless the spending cuts half is all that matters. Committee members…from the Dem side are upset over this.

Obama has done a very poor selling job on raising it by not explaining the difference between effective and marginal  rates. So as a primer: IF you make $1,000,000, no change…only difference is on the amount above…got it? Then there is the claim that Obama is raising everyone’s taxes next year…no, that will come from ending the payroll tax suspension. It will happen whoever is president.

TB is going way out on a limb today but if you only listen to people who agree with you, there is no hope for America. Yet that is what both sides do…consistently. At least they are consistent on something! Preach ideology over facts…and remember Limbaugh was a liberal until he found he could make more as a conservative….and that’s the truth, Ruth!

If you disagree, feel free to express your thoughts to TB…but make sure they are your own, not parroting what you have heard. Perhaps TB needs a superpac…would someone please fund Americans for Trader Bill?

Oh, in case you think TB has gone ‘round the bend,’ his rant on Brian Dunn, CEO of Best Buy must have been on the mark, because having written a  letter, not answered, then putting out today’s column, about an hour later the company said he had resigned – this morning they say that they were conducting a ‘personal conduct’ review and he chose to resign before it was completed…hmmmm. Will he get the traditional golden parachute? We’ll have to wait and see.

A friend told TB when he got out of the navy that if you became a professional athlete, you could make more than the CEO of General Motors. He was right too…but now despite obscene salaries for players, CEO’s can beat their contracts in a single year. Like Jamie Dimon who can’t see corruption around him any better than Greenspan who failed to spot three different bubbles…ah, greed is good, right Ivan (Boesky)? …so is green. But remember they don’t give a damn about the money, it is just a ‘counter’ to measure yourself against the others…but pay more taxes? Hell, no!

It is too bad Occupy Wall Street has such a bad connotation. Too bad they didn’t call it Reform Corporate America (RCA) and include the government too. We need help!

Have a wonderful day and don’t take life – or politics – too easily, they are all bought and paid for.

TB

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