12/28/11…one big yawner

Bloomberg Top Stories:

 

*Italy Bonds Rise as Borrowing Costs Falls at Auction; Stocks, Futures Gain

*Bernanke Drive for Greater Fed Openness May Include Doubling of Briefings

*Crunch Averted as Corporate Bond Sales Exceed $3 Trillion – you thought stocks were big?

*Wendy’s Adds $16 Foie Gras Burgers in Second Bet on Japan Fast-Food Market –coming here?

*Facebook Poised to Lead Biggest U.S. Internet IPO Year Since 1999 Bubble

*Calgary Oil Transforming Canada to Energy Superpower Built With Immigrants

*Fed Mortgage Buying to Aid Housing Hit by Declining Prices – finally???

*Worst-Rated Illinois Poised to Give Up Market-Beating Return

*JPMorgan Swaps Occupying Cassino Prove Curse Like World War II Destruction

*Romney Compares Gingrich to Comedienne Ball as Former Speaker Hits Paul

*Epidurals Prompting Paralysis Seen Tied to $300 Billion Painkiller Market


Volume tumbled further to 2B shares from a weak 2.2B shares, in a session which had the Dow, Transports, and S&P 500 doing nothing and little gains on other indices…i.e. nobody home. Are we being set up for a selloff now that the final day for T+3 has passed? Meanwhile, NYSE stocks executed on the Big Board rose slightly to a wake 495M shares from 478m shares, which was lowest since 11/25! 29 of the last 32 sessions have been less than 1B! Advance/Declines were minor and mixed: +1.1:1 vs +2.2:1 vs +3:1 vs  +1.7:1 vs +7.5:1 vs -4:1 vs +1.7:1 on NYSE and -1.1:1 vs +1.1:1 vs +2:1 vs 1:1 vs +4.7:1 vs -4:1 vs +1.3:1 on Nasdaq. Breadth was also mixed but reversed: -1.5x vs +3.4x vs +4.5x vs +1.4x vs +35x!!! vs -3.1x vs +1.9x on NYSE and +1.2x vs +2.2x vs +3.6x vs -1.6x vs +11x!!! vs -5x vs +1.4x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs surged to 299 from 212 while new lows rose to 91 from 51.The ratio is about 6x positive again!  Again low volume plus big new highs indicates an absence of sellers. The S&P VIX finally ROSE to 21.91 +1.18 after four straight declines, wiping out three of them…still ridiculously  complacent!!!

Here are the results of the past seven sessions: Dow FLAT vs +1% vs +0.5% vs flat vs +2.9% vs -0.8% vs flat (note 3 out of 7 were unched); Transports FLAT vs +0.5% vs +0.9% vs +0.6% vs +3.4% vs -2.3% vs +1.5%; S&P 500 FLAT vs +0.9% vs +0.8% vs +0.2% vs +3% vs -0.8% vs +0.3%; Nasdaq Composite +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +0.8% vs -1% vs +3.2% vs -1.2% vs +0.6%; Nasdaq 100 +0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.8% vs -1% vs +1.4% vs +3% vs -1% vs +0.5%; Russell 2000 +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +4.2% vs -1.9% vs +0.8%; NYSE Financials DOWN 0.6% vs+0.7% vs +1.8%!!! vs +0.3% vs +3.7% vs -1.9% vs +0.4%  Leaders: BAC -2.1%; C -2%; GE -1.2%.

European equity markets up, Asia weaker: FTSE +0.8% vs closed vs +1% vs +1.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -0.1%; CAC40 +0.5% vs +0.2% vs +0.6% vs +1.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.8% vs +1%; DAX FLAT vs flat vs +0.3% vs +1.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.8% vs +0.8%; -0.5% vs Nikkei -0.2% vs closed vs -0.8% vs +1.5% vs +0.5% vs -1.3%; Hang Seng -0.6% vs closed vs +1.4% vs -0.2% vs +1.9% vs +0.1% vs -1.2%; Korean KOSPI -0.9% vs -0.8% vs +1.1% vs -0.1% vs +3.1% vs +0.9% vs -3.4%; Indian Sensex -0.9% vs +0.6% vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs +3.4% vs -1.3% vs -0.7%. U.S. stock futures modestly higher: DOW +21; SPX +3; NDQ +7. Bonds rallying again with 10’s and 30’s straddling 2% and 3% respectively. 10 yr 1.99% +3/16. RECORD low 9/23 of 1.6855%; 30 yr 3.01% +7/16; Long TIP 0.75% +5/8. 0.57% at high four weeks ago. The 5 yr TIP yields MINUS 0.84%; 10 yr -0.12%. 3 mo. Libor 0.58%, and 0.81%. 6 mo. – 3 mo. above 0.50% and six month above 0.75%…and slowly climbing. Bills -0.01% one month. 3 months 0.00%. 6 months 0.02%.

Gold closed lower Monday for first close below $1600 and the 200 day since 12/19. It closed at $1595.50 -$10.50 and is now $1590.00. -$5.50. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. RES is 1706, the 40 day and $1702, the 50 day m/a and now $1624, the 200 day.Major Res at $1800-1806, the November highs. Crude closed STRONG and is well above the 200/50 day ($95.70) closing $101.34 +$1.66, first close above $100 since 12/13 and highest since 11/16! It is now $101.01 -.33. high has been above $100 for four straight days.  Major sup is the 40/50 day m/a at $97.63-96.03. Res/Sup at $100.

…with final T+3 settlement gone without a whimper we are in the hands of the market gods…’nuf said. Don’t take any wooden nickels.

. . .   – – –  . . . note that the same old SOS applies…perhaps more so!

With yearend fast approaching, so is the Iowa Caucus then the string of primaries…you think the politics is going to get better? Don’t bet on it!

Have a great day!

TB

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