11/23/11…party like it’s Thanksgiving!

Today’s song is dedicated to the two political parties, those hardworking senators and representatives, the lobbyists, and especially Grover Norquist. We have something to be thankful for…they are going to be away from the nation’s capitol for a while…isn’t that rich?

Isn’t it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground
You in mid-air.
Where are the clowns?

Isn’t it bliss?
Don’t you approve?
One who keeps tearing around
One who can’t move.

Where are the clowns?
Send in the clowns.

Just when I stopped opening doors
Finally knowing the one that I wanted was yours
Making my entrance again
With my usual flair
(From: http://www.elyrics.net/read/j/judy-collins-lyrics/send-in-the-clowns-lyrics.html)
Sure of my lines
No one is there.

Don’t you love farce?
My fault, I fear
I thought that you’d want what I want
Sorry, my dear.
But, where are the clowns?
Send in the clowns.
Don’t bother they’re here.

Isn’t it rich?
Isn’t it queer?
Losing my timing this late in my career
But where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns
Well, maybe next year….or 2013

– lyrics by Stephen Sondheim

 

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Consumer Spending in U.S. Probably Climbed in October as Incomes Increased

*Bond Risk Rises to Record in Europe as S&P Futures Fall on Debt; Oil Drops

*German Bond Auction Falls Short of Target as Euro Crisis Deters Investors – that, folks is a FAILED AUCTION…they were short by 35% of the auction…and that GERMANY!!!

*ECB’s Italian Ordeal Hardens Draghi Resistance to Bond Buying

*Nokia Siemans Networks Plans to Cut 17,000 Jobs Worldwide by End of 2013

*Deere Fourth-Quarter Net Tops Analyst Estimates as U.S. Farm Income Climbs – remember: nothing runs like a Deere! Closed $71.92, opening indication $75.74-75!

*EU Regulators Seek Tougher Budget Oversight, Float Options on Euro Bonds – see what happens when government isn’t controlled by the financial services lobby? And 61 committee members all of whom are on the take!

*AMR Bond Distress Grows as Carrier Burns Through Cash – American Airlines!

*Diesel Becomes ‘Global Issue’ as Premium to Gasoline Soars – a very bad thing!

*London Banks Seen Rigging Rates for Decades Losing Credibility in Markets – finally!?!

*Cairo Demonstrators Clash With Security Forces as Protests Enter Fifth Day

*Congress Poised to Consider Obama Push to Extend Payroll Tax Cut for 2012 – of course, the GOP will back lower taxes…a bandaid that will end badly…again.

*Investigator Says Proof Wasn’t There to Stop Penn State’s Sandusky in 1998 – pathetic!


Volume dipped just a scoch but remained an ‘average’ 3.9B shares from 4.0B on an otherwise lackluster day that once again took us down. Once again, all the major indices are in the red year-to-date. Happy Thanksgiving! NYSE stocks executed on the Big Board remained below average slumping to 878M shares from 932 shares making eight of the last nine sessions less than 1B, including the lowest volume since May 27th (692M on the day before the Memorial Day weekend, a modest up day)! Low yet volatility remains high!?!  The market was only positive for about half an hour and not by much. Advance/Declines were negative again: -1.6:1 vs -5.6:1 vs +1.4:1 vs -4.3:1 vs -3.3:1 vs +1.8;1 vs  -3:1 vs +6:1 vs +2.3:1 vs -9:1!!! vs on NYSE and -1.7:1 vs -4.9:1 vs -1.1:1 vs -2.5:1 vs -1.3:1 vs +2.1:1 vs -3:1 v +3.6:1 vs +1.7:1 vs -6.9:1! on Nasdaq. Breadth was also negative: -3x vs -14.6x vs -1.1x vs -13.6x!!! vs -5.4x vs +1.8x vs -5.5x vs +12.8x! vs +2x vs -60x!!! on NYSE and -1.1x vs -3.9x vs -1.9x vs -4.3x! vs -2.7x vs +2.5x vs -3.6x vs +6x vs +1.6x vs -18x!!!! on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs rose slightly to 69 vs 64, while new lows surged again to 240 from 199. The ratio is remains negative by 3.5:1.  VIX however, DECLINED despite the selloff and is back AT the 40/50 day m/a’s closing 32.05 -86???

Here are the results for the past TEN sessions: Dow -0.5% by 3:1 vs -2.1% by 30:0 vs +0.2% vs -1.1% by 14:1 vs -1.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs +2.2% vs by 9:1 vs -3.2% by 30:0; Transports -1.1% by 5:1 vs -2.3% by 19:1 vs +0.6% vs -1.5% by 9:1 vs  -2% vs +0.8% vs -0.7% vs +2.8% vs +1.3% vs -3.8% by 19:1; S&P 500 -0.4% by 24:1!!! vs -1.9% by 15:1 vs flat vs -1.7% by 19:1 vs vs -1.6% vs +0.5% vs -1%! vs +2% vs +0.9% vs -3.7% by 499:1!!!; Nasdaq Composite +0.1% but 2:1 down vs -1.9% by 5:1 vs -0.6%! vs -2%! by 3:1 vs -1.7% vs +1.1% vs -0.8% vs +2% vs +0.1% vs -3.9% by 7:3; Nasdaq 100 +0.2% but 11:9 declining vs -1.9% by -5.7:1 vs -0.8%!! vs -2.3%! by 19:1! vs -1.7% vs +1.1% vs -0.6% vs +1.9% vs -0.1%vs -3.6% by 99:1; Russell 2000 -0.7% by 2.8:1 vs -2.4% by 11:1!!! vs +0.1% vs -1.5% by 3.3:1 vs -1.8% vs +1.4% vs -1.6%! vs +2.6% vs +0.9%+3.9:1 vs -4.8% by 4.7:1; NYSE Financials -0.8% by 3:1 vs -2.4% by 14:1 vs +0.5% vs -2% by 7:1 vs -1.8% vs +0.1% vs -1.8% vs +2% vs +0.4% 2.3:1 vs -5.6% by 63.5:1!!! BAC -2.6% vs -5%!!! vs -0.3% vs -1.7% vs -3.8% vs +1.3% vs -2.6% vs +3% vs -2.1%. Look at that negative breadth and as they say…read ‘em and weep!

 

Global stock markets mixed: FTSE -0.4% vs flat vs -2.2%! -0.5% vs -2%!!! vs -0.8% vs -1% vs -0.6%; CAC 40 +0.1% vs -0.2% vs -2.8% vs +0.1% vs -1.5% vs flat vs -2% vs -1.3%; DAX +0.7% vs -0.6% vs -2.9% vs +0.2% vs -1.4% vs -1.1% vs -1.9% vs -1.1%%; Nikkei closed vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.2% vs +0.2% vs -0.9% vs -0.7% vs +1.1%; Hang Seng -2.1%!!! vs +0.1% vs -1.4% vs -1.7% vs -0.8% vs -2%! vs -0.8% vs +1.9%; Korean KOSPI -2.4%!!! vs +0.3% vs -1% vs -2% vs +1.1%! vs -1.6% vs -0.9% vs +2.1%; Indian Sensex down again, losing in 9 of the last ten sessions due to huge withdrawals from India funds: -2.3% vs +0.8% vs -2.6% vs -0.6% vs -1.9%!!! vs -0.6% vs -1.4% vs  -0.4% vs 1% vs closed vs -1.2%. U.S. stock futures weaker again: DOW -88; SPX -7; NDQ -13! Bonds weaker too but remain below 2% and 3% respectively: 10 yr 1.93% -3/32. RECORD low 9/23 of 1.6855%; 30 yr 2.89% -1/4; Long TIP 0.81% -1/2 vs .57% at high week week ago Tuesday. The 5 yr TIP yields MINUS 0.80%! 10 yr +.01%. Libor  0.51% 3 mo., and 0.72% 6 mo., a very steady upward climb – 3 mo. above 0.5% and six month approaching 0.75%…bears watching! Bills 0.01% from one month, three months 0.02%, six months 0.06%! Bills finally rising too…very slowly.

Gold modestly weaker after taking out $1700 yesterday…barely. It closed at $1702.40 +$13.80 but is now $1691.20 -$11.20. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. RES is again $1702-1712, the 40/50 day convergence. Crude likewise traded up yesterday closing $98.01 +$1.09, but sold off overnight to $96.05 -$1.96. It is still copying the pattern in gold when it peaks! Support at the 200 day (95.45), still rising. Major support is the 50 day m/a at $90.54, also still moving up.

 

Groupon watch continues (GRPN) IPO Priced at @$20 11/3

Day1 $31.14-25.90 closed 26.11 +$6.11

Day2 $27.78-24.59 closed $25.97 -.14

Day3 $26.21-24.75 closed $24.90 -$1.07

Day4 $24.56-22.76 closed $24.02 -88 – gap down on open from $24.75-$24.56 – now res.!
Day5 $24.96-23.20 closed $24.41 +.39 – first up day and higher high, higher low!

Day6 $25.23-23.61 closed $24.25 -.16 – down again on an inside session

Day7 $24.16-23.40 closed $24.07 -.18 – lower high and lower low

Day8 $24.74-23.23 closed $24.07 unched – slight outside day (higher high, lower low)

Day9 $24.30-23.75 closed $24.03 – new low on an inside day…tell it goodbye!

Day10 $24.77-23.60 closed $24.77 +.74 – positive key reversal but volume is gone!

Day11 $26.25-24.20 closed $26.19 +1.32 – higher high but indicated opening is $24.19.

Day12 $26.90-23.28 closed $23.58 -$2.61 – despite higher high, higher low, new low close!

Day13 $24.75-20.03 closed $20.07 – that’s round trip to the IPO pricing, tell it goodbye!

 

…because we have nothing to be thankful for in the nation’s capital…unless you like gridlock but with a ‘true’ unemployment rate in excess of 15% that can’t be a good thing. ‘nuf said, think positive…well, maybe next year…

 

. . .   – – –  . . .

Time to think of the things we have to be thankful for…not so easy this year…so let’s focus on friends and family…after all, isn’t that what life is all about…if you said getting rich, shame on you, but there may be a job on Wall Street or foreclosing homes for you.

 

TB remembers talking to and also watching a documentary on the Great Depression…don’t stop reading, this is going to end positively. What struck him, was that despite Prohibition (which the Irish, Italians, and most members of Congress took as a big fat joke), everyone said they were the happiest days of their lives…that is in retrospect of course…but it was because friends and family weren’t just a big thing…they were the only thing, replacing ‘winning at all costs.’

 

That is a nice sentiment, so…

 

You just call out my name
And you know wherever I am
I’ll come runnin’, runnin, yeah, yeah,
to see you again
Winter, spring, summer or fall
All you have to do is call
And I’ll be there, yes I will

-lyrics by Carole King, recorded first by James Taylor

 

May tomorrow be your best Thanksgiving ever (unless you’re the turkey!).

 

TB

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