11/16/11…tea for two

TB’s Joke of the Day:

 

“Get the whip!”

“No, not the whip!”

“GET THE WHIP!”

“NO! Not the whip…anything but the whip!”

“Anything???”

“…get the whip”

(aside from the last line that could be a tea party member. It is not rational to want Obama out at all costs…unfortunately they may find themselves with someone worse for EIGHT more years!0

 

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Global Financial job Losses Near 200,000 as BNP, Citigroup Trim Employees (Question; are CEO’s and senior management taking pay cuts??? Hell no! TB)

*JPMorgan Joins Goldman Keeping Investors in Dark on Italy Derivatives Risk (same old…)

*Stocks, Euro Decline on Debt-Contagion Concern as Crude Oil Exceeds $100 (lower at pump?)

*Industrial Production in U.S. Climbs to 0.9%, More Than Economists Estimated (but WEAK!)

*UBS Chief Ermotti to Follow Gruebel in Shrinking Investment Banking Unit (Dump Phil Gramm!)

*Harrisburg Council Says State Bankruptcy Ban Unconstitutional

*Big Government Embraced as Alabama Raids Road Funds to Keep Generals Happy

*Gingrich Said to Be Paid at Least $1.6 Million for Freddie Mac Consulting (hypocrite!)


Volume rose slightly but remains well below average for a FOURTH consecutive day as we approach options expiry on Friday (note that last month the same thing happened culminating in  a huge rally on Friday…if it was always the same it would be easy, right?: 3.5B shares from 3.15B shares. NYSE stocks executed on the Big Board rose modestly to 781M shares from a way below average 710M shares – still at lowest since May 27th (692M on the day before the Memorial Day weekend, a modest up day)! That makes three straight sub 800M share days and four since an ‘average’ day. Advance/Declines were modestly positive:+1.8;1 vs  -3:1 vs +6:1 vs +2.3:1 vs -9:1!!! vs on NYSE and +2.1:1 vs -3:1 v +3.6:1 vs +1.7:1 vs -6.9:1! on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar but weaker: +1.8x vs -5.5x vs +12.8x! vs +2x vs -60x!!! on NYSE and +2.5x vs -3.6x vs +6x vs +1.6x vs -18x!!!! on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs rose slightly to 107 vs 91, but new lows rose to 123 from 95. The ratio is again slightly negative.  VIX ROSE slightly to 31.22 +.09 despite the modest rally. SUP/RES is 30 and still high lending credence to the ‘high frequency trading’ explanation.

Here are the results for the past five days, Nasdaq and Russell the only real winners : Dow +0.1% vs -0.6% vs +2.2x vs by 9:1 vs -3.2% by 30:0; Transports +0.8% vs -0.7% vs +2.8% vs +1.3% vs -3.8% by 19:1; S&P 500 +0.5% vs -1%! vs +2% vs +0.9% vs -3.7% by 499:1!!!; Nasdaq Composite +1.1% vs -0.8% vs +2% vs +0.1% vs -3.9% by 7:3; Nasdaq 100 +1.1% vs -0.6% vs +1.9% vs -0.1%vs -3.6% by 99:1; Russell 2000 +1.4% vs -1.6%! vs +2.6% vs +0.9%+3.9:1 vs -4.8% by 4.7:1; NYSE Financials +0.1% vs -1.8% vs +2% vs +0.4% 2.3:1 vs -5.6% by 63.5:1!!! BAC +1.3% vs -2.6% vs +3% vs -2.1%; C -1.3% vs -3.2% vs +2.4% vs -0.7%.

 

Global stock markets weak for a second day: FTSE -0.8% vs -1% vs -0.6% vs +1% vs +0.3% vs -1.6% ; CAC 40 flat vs -2% vs -1.3% vs +1.5% vs +0.9% vs -2.2%; DAX -1.1% vs -1.9% vs -1.1% vs +2.1% vs +1.5% vs -2.3%; Nikkei -0.9% vs -0.7% vs +1.1% vs +0.2% vs -2.9% vs +1.2% vs -1.3% vs -0.4% vs +1.9% vs closed vs -2.2%!!! vs -1.7%; Hang Seng -2%! vs -0.8% vs +1.9% vs +0.9% vs -5.3%!!!; Korean KOSPI -1.6% vs -0.9% vs +2.1% vs +2.7% vs -4.9%!!! vs +0.2%; Indian Sensex down for a 5th session -0.6% vs -1.4% vs  -0.4% vs 1% vs closed vs -1.2%. U.S. stock futures WEAK: DOW -92; SPX -13; NDQ -13. Bond market rallying: 10 yr 2.02% +1/4. RECORD low 9/23 of 1.6855%; 30 yr 3.06% +3/8; Long TIP 0.81% vs .57% at high last Tuesday. The 5 yr TIP yields MINUS 0.93%! 10 yr +.01% vs -0.07%! Libor  0.47% 3 mo., and 0.68% 6 mo., still creeping higher! Bills 0.01% out to six months where it is just 0.04% – 1 month T-Bill 0.01%! 

Gold trading down overnight after a modest rally Tuesday. It closed at $1782.20 +$3.80, and is now $1773.00 -$9.20. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. SUP is $1720, the 40 day. Crude traded to highest since 7/26 overnight, $100.88, after closing at $99.37 +$1.23 and is now $100.80 +$1.43. Support at the 200 day (95.15) which had been resistance for the past two weeks. Major support is the convergence of the 40 and 50 day m/a’s at $88.05-.10, still moving up.

 

Groupon watch continues (GRPN) IPO Priced at @$20 11/3

Day1 $31.14-25.90 closed 26.11 +$6.11

Day2 $27.78-24.59 closed $25.97 -.14

Day3 $26.21-24.75 closed $24.90 -$1.07

Day4 $24.56-22.76 closed $24.02 -88 – gap down on open from $24.75-$24.56 – now res.!
Day5 $24.96-23.20 closed $24.41 +.39 – first up day and higher high, higher low!

Day6 $25.23-23.61 closed $24.25 -.16 – down again on an inside session

Day7 $24.16-23.40 closed $24.07 -.18 – lower high and lower low

Day8 $24.74-23.23 closed $24.07 unched – slight outside day (higher high, lower low)

 

…when is someone going to do something about the high frequency trading that is causing all the volatility? Never given the current Congress and SEC. Don’t you just love free market capitalism? Tomorrow TB will discuss the myth of corporations creating jobs…including small business. Only startups create jobs and we need a new, new thing for that…you can do it on social networking alone.

 

Reading Tom Brokaw and Tom Friedman, TB believes they have a fatal flaw in an otherwise valid observation. They state that Americans who had to earn less for unskilled jobs will now have to earn less for skilled jobs. This is true if we want to compete globally. But what about CEO’s? TB will analyze this using those eight most overpaid CEO’s discussed last week. How do they live with themselves? Answer: ego, just the same as our elected officials!

 

That is what is wrong with markets and the small investors are becoming more disenchanted by the day. The alternatives are to earn little or nothing but at least you know which way your savings are going. Let’s get our best days ahead of us…again!

 

. . .   – – –  . . .

There is a new study of the demographics of the Tea Party and what they really are like. TB listened to a discussion on NPR (you know, the radio they hate?). It was very fair and balanced (FOX NEWS please note), and gave them credit for their philosophy. The average Tea Party advocate, is slightly higher than average intelligence, is slightly wealthier than average, believes in restoring conservative values, is middle-aged or older, and will accept anyone as president, except Obama, who they loathe.

 

They don’t trust government, politicians OR the GOP leadership. They have aligned with them however and the GOP has bent over backwards to accommodate them since they cannot win without them. All well and good? They are anti-abortion, gay marriage, and want to restore family values. If given a choice between two candidates they will vote for the one farthest to the right. They do not like Mitt Romney as they see him as same old, same old.

 

They do not want more government BUT do not want to do away with or reform Social Security OR Medicare, yet they want to balance the budget. That is, not for themselves. They see the younger generation as lazy and lacking direction, thus any change in these two programs will come at the expense of the younger generation.

 

They have extremely inflated numbers on illegal immigrants and believe that anyone who doesn’t pay ‘income tax’ doesn’t pay taxes. How about Social Security, Medicare, sales and property taxes? As for illegals, try finding Americans to do the jobs they do…employers have tried, and failed. As for the illegals collecting benefits, also distorted and ignores the taxes they pay for Social Security and Medicare that they will never get. They believe though that THEY have earned all those entitlements by paying into them.

 

Also on the panel was Tom Emmer, former candidate for Minnesota governor and now a conservative radio talk show host (his words). He agreed with much of what the author said, but whenever he disagreed he became louder and more agitated…seems to be a trademark, no?

 

Now consider their premise of ‘anyone but Obama.’ By the way, they had little use for George W. Bush’s policies. Still, they would back Herman Cain, despite his harassment, flawed tax plan, and now his total lack of understanding of foreign policy? How does this line up with fairness and family values? Dunno.  They have bought into the rhetoric that Obama has done nothing good or right, thanks to misinformation…disinformation by the right media. True, he has failed in boosting the economy but he hasn’t made things worse as we are led to believe…Bush did that!

 

As for Occupy Wall Street, the identify with some of the goals, but see no organization like they had…a true grass roots approach. They are 10-20% of the electorate. Occupy Wall Street (TB still believes it should be called Reform Corporate America – RCA), is growing because of dissatisfaction with government and its failure to protect the people.

 

A friend sent a link to a purported OWS web page of their objectives. It reads like the Communist Manifesto but is totally bogus. Someone hacked in…why would they destroy their own opportunity to succeed to put out rubbish like that? Not credible. As for the right, why does every complaint say ‘dirty and stinky?” Note that the arrests in NYC included an councilman and several reporters…hmmm…dirty and stinky?

 

Say or believe what you wish but be rational and honest about it…not an ideologue!

 

Now a word about Jerry Sandusky – despicable! How he had the nerve, or how his lawyers let him, go on television and deny doing anything wrong, yet admit he likes young boys and showered with them, is beyond comprehension.

 

TB hears that Cain is offering some advice…there are forty charges…that is not conclusive and evidence of a conspiracy by the Democratic machine…or was it Perry? Also, for those forty who came forward there may be forty more that he didn’t molest.

There should be a special place in hell for Jerry Sandusky…and the Penn State leadership (sic…and sick!).

 

Have a great day!

 

TB

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