10/13/11…the times they are a’changin’

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Goldman May Drop Bank Status Over Volcker Rule – MS many join them, but hey, they never WERE banks…they used and abused it for the bailout! Also, they had to switch to calendar fiscal year and buried 1 mo. Of losses!!!
*Forgiving GS Tax Interest Was Worst Decision, HMRC Says – yep they cheated by paying bonuses to UK employees from offshore…lost $15B, fire the guy!
*Some Fed Officials Supported Retaining QE3 Option, Minutes Say
*Occupy Wall Street Protests Targest London Stock Exchange Next
*JPM Earnings Decline Less than Expected – yep acct. gimmick lowered value of liabilities. Earnings $1.02 vs. $1.01 yr ago and $1.27 Q2 – Inv Bank would have reported an operating loss…we can’t have that, right Jamie???
*Buffetts Sons Defends Occupy Wall Street as ‘Making Things Happen” – yes!

Volume was higher at 4.85B shares vs. 4.0B shares from 3.9B shares on an up day, about average.  NYSE stocks executed on the Big Board rose to 1.07B, the first 1B share day this week. Advance/Declines were positive: +4:1 vs. +1.2:1 vs. +10.4:1 vs +5.5:1 vs +2.7:1 on NYSE and +2.7:1 vs. +1.5:1 vs. +4.9:1 vs +3.3:1 vs +2.2:1 on Nasdaq. Breadth was even better: +5.2x vs. +1.6:1 vs +9.7x vs 16.3x vs +5.9x vs +5.7x vs -30x vs -16x on NYSE and +2.6x vs. +1.5x vs +7.6x vs. +7.9x vs +7.6x vs +8.7x vs -10x vs -9.2x on Nasdaq! New 52 week highs rose modestly to 46 from 30, while new lows dropped to 43 from 68. The takeaway here is that they turned VERY SLIGHTLY positive for the first time in months, but will it hold? The VIX continued to slip to 31.26 -1.60 with the 40 day (36.64) 50 day (36.04) still res. Support is at 30.

Here are the results: Dow +0.9% vs. -0.2% vs +3.0% vs +1.7% vs +1.2% vs +1.4% vs -2.4% vs -2.2%; Transports +1.3% vs. +0.2% vs +3.9% vs. +2.2% vs +2.7% vs +4.4%! vs -3.6% vs -3.5%; S&P 500 +1.0% vs. +0.1% vs +3.4% vs +1.8% vs +2.3% vs -2.9% vs -2.5%; Nasdaq Composite +0.8% vs +0.7% vs +3.5%; 100 +0.5% vs +0.7% vs +3.5%; Russell 2000 +1.7% vs. +0.6% vs +4.4%! vs +3.2%! vs +1.5% vs +6.5%!!! vs -5.4%!!! vs -2.8%%; NYSE Financials +2.5% vs. -0.3% vs +4.7% vs. +3.2%! vs +1.4% vs +3.1% vs -4.4%! vs -3.6%.

Asian stocks are rallying except India, Europe weak: FTSE -0.9% vs. +0.3% vs -0.7% vs +0.8% vs +2% vs +1.9% vs -3.4%! vs -1.7% vs -1.3% vs -0.7% vs -0.2%; CAC 40 -1% vs. +1.4%! vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs +2.3% vs +2.9% vs -3.2% vs -2.3% vs -1.8% vs -0.1% vs +0.1%; DAX -1% vs. +1.2% vs -0.3% vs +.08% vs +1.5% vs +3.5% vs -4.1%! vs -2.8% vs -2.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.1%; Nikkei +1% vs. -0.4% vs +2% vs. +1% vs +1.7% vs -0.9% vs -1.1% vs -1.8% vs flat vs +1% vs +0.1%; Hang Seng +2.3% vs. +1.0% vs +2.4% vs. +3.1% vs +5.7%!!! vs closed -3.4%! vs -4.4%!!! vs -2.3% vs closed vs -0.7%; Korean KOSPI +0.8% vs. +0.8% vs +1.6% vs +2.9% vs +2.6% vs -2.3% vs -3.6% vs closed vs flat vs +2.7%!!! vs -0.7%; Indian Sensex -0.4% vs. +2.6%!!! vs -0.1% vs +2.8% vs closed vs -0.5% vs -1.8% vs -1.8% vs -1.5% vs +1.5% vs -0.5%. US futures plummeted on the bad Europe news but are coming back: DOW +109; SPA +12; NDA +28. Bonds getting crushed again. Currently 10 yr at 2.22% -5/8, after a RECORD low 9/23 of 1.6855%; 30 yr at 3.19% -1-7/8; Long TIP back above 1%! 1.06%% -2-1/16!!!

Gold sharply higher yesterday closing $1682.60 +$21.60), following 9/23’s low of $1534, lowest since 7/6!), and is now $1671.60 -$11.00. A week ago Monday’s low was nearly to the 200 day, $1536.60, now critical support. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. Making a run at the highs! Crude was off yesterday, closing at $85.57  -.24 and is weaker again overnight to $84.42 -$1.15. A week ago Tuesday’s close was lowest since 9/23/10 as was low of $74.95!

…pay attention to the headlines with TB’s annotations…the time’s they ARE a’changin’

You decide what it all means but it can’t be good for stocks. As for Goldman, may they rot in hell! Not the good people that work for them but the few thieves that remain in control. They became a bank to be saved…by shifting from a November year to calendar year as is required by banking law, they BURIED huge amounts of losses in November…thus allowing their hefty bonuses to continue to be paid…how about a law that prohibits this from happening again?

As TB predicted Occupy Wall Street is gaining steam and would have support from politicians if it wouldn’t hurt their wallets! Tea Party, why don’t you do something right for a change…join them! Oh, forgot your backing comes from the Koch brothers…pity.

That’s all for today as TB is vacationing…stayed in Spring Green, WI. last night at The Inn on the Rock…terrific resort with terrific value…off for a steam/sauna/swim…then to Door County…huge rainstorm allowed us to find this place.

All the best,




  1. Yarnman said

    TB–Please thank your family for allowing you to blog the first four days this week. Take tomorrow off! Your readers will survive.–Yarnman

    • traderbill said

      Thanks, Yarnman! But I do enjoy this and I have to stay up with markets for my advisory clients and I am bond consultant for an institutional money manager and have to do trades for them. That said, it is incredible having Bloomberg, computer, and telephone access wherever I am. For that I am ever grateful. For 33 of my 40 years in this business I was chained to a desk. For the last four, since I founded TBD Capital LLC, I have had the freedom to roam and that increases by the year. As always, thanks for reading…and caring!

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