10/7…forgetful TB

According to WordPress, today is TB’s 900th post! Whew!

TB’s Quote of the Day: “I never met a rally I didn’t like.” – a former boss and chief investment officer…he always oversimplified and cost us money thinking that way. Sometimes it doesn’t pay to be an optimist. -TB

*U.S. Payrolls Rise More-Than-Expected 103,000; Jobless Rate Stays at 9%

(75k or 103k that is nothing to rally on…sheer lunacy! TB)

*Stock Futures In U.S., Commodities Rally, Treasuries Drop on Jobs Report

*Gross Says U.S. Employment Gains Are Not Enough to Grow Economy – so does TB!

*EU Leaders Under Investor Pressure to Devise Bank Rescue Plan Before G-20

*IOUs to Long Bonds Slide as Europe Imperils Global Growth – more bad news!

*Worst Time for $2.6 Trillion Money Funds as Europe’s Crisis Adds to Woes

*California Pot-Clinic Crackdown Threatens Industry With $1 Billion Sales

(Private Equity…there you go, take it from them, legalize it, go public!)

*Ireland Aims to be First to Exit Euro Rescue, Premier Kenny Says – Erin go brah!


U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls ROSE by 103k in September vs concensus 60k, while August was upward revised to 57k from ZERO and July was revised to 127k from 85k, for a combined 99k gain…yawn! Private Payrolls rose by 137k BUT with a loss of 13k factory jobs, while government declined by 34k (teabaggers, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet if you get your way). Construction jobs increased by 26,000.

The Unemployment rate was steady at 9.09%. Household jobs increased by 398k. Forget all this, all you need to know is the unemployment rate including discouraged and marginally attached workers is still 10.2% -0.4%, adding in part time for economic reasons 15.7% vs 16.1%...at this rate TB will be dead and buried before we get back to a healthy economy…if then! Hourly earnings for all U.S. workers rose by 0.2%, up 1.2% from a year ago...whoopdedo! The average workweek rose by just 0.1 to 34.3 hours while overtime rose by 0.1 to 3.2% - both of these have been steady for months!

Market Reaction 9am EDT: Bonds are tanking with the 30 yr back above 3% (3.03% -1-3/4), and the 10 yr above 2% at 2.07% -11/16! Gold is up $2.90 to $1656.10 while Crude is $83.35 +.76. Dollar is weaker. Stock futures were off but surged with the Dow going from 11025 to 11174 and is now 11144 +98; S&P from 1159 to 1173.50 now 1168.30 +10.70; NDQ from 2196 tp 2226 amd mpw 2218 +13.25. Have fun!  


Volume declined again to a still above average 4.94B shares from 5.19B shares on a third straight strong session. NYSE stocks executed on the Big Board however plunged dropped again from 1.19B shares from 1.11B shares. It only crossed 1B on the close, contrast to Tuesday when that occurred an hour before! Advance/Declines were very positive: +5.5:1 vs +2.7:1 vs +1.5:1 va -10:1 vs -3.9:1 on NYSE and +3.3:1 vs +2.2:1 va +2.7:1 vs -10:1 vs -3.4:1 on Nasdaq. Breadth was even better, still…compare: +16.3x vs +5.9x vs +5.7x vs -30x vs -16x on NYSE and +7.9x vs +7.6x vs +8.7x vs -10x vs -9.2x on Nasdaq! New 52 week highs were once again the killjoy, falling 3 to 16, while new lows plummeted again from two day’s ago’s amazing high of 2102 to 81 from 154. The ratio is -1.9:1. The VIX meanwhile broke below the 40 day (36.79) and closed almost to the 50 day (35.64), at 36.27 -1.54.

Here are the results: Dow +1.7% vs +1.2% vs +1.4% vs -2.4% vs -2.2%; Transports +2.2% vs +2.7% vs +4.4%! vs -3.6% vs -3.5%; S&P 500 +1.8% vs +2.3% vs -2.9% vs -2.5%; Nasdaq Composite +1.9% vs +2.3% vs +3.0% vs -2.9% vs -2.6%; 100 +1.6% vs +2.5% vs +2.1% vs -2.5% vs -2.7%; Russell 2000 +3.2%! vs +1.5% vs +6.5%!!! vs -5.4%!!! vs -2.8%%; NYSE Financials +3.2%! vs +1.4% vs +3.1% vs -4.4%! vs -3.6%. Note the volatile Russell 2000 was the worst performer along with financials. All indices remain net negative for the week, so today is a big day and starting to the upside.

Stocks are up globally for a second straight session, but Europe losing momentum, as usual for the wrong reasons: FTSE +0.8% vs +2% vs +1.9% vs -3.4%! vs -1.7% vs -1.3% vs -0.7% vs -0.2%; CAC 40 +0.9% vs +2.3% vs +2.9% vs -3.2% vs -2.3% vs -1.8% vs -0.1% vs +0.1%; DAX +.08% vs +1.5% vs +3.5% vs -4.1%! vs -2.8% vs -2.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.1%; Nikkei +1% vs +1.7% vs -0.9% vs -1.1% vs -1.8% vs flat vs +1% vs +0.1%; Hang Seng +3.1% vs +5.7%!!! vs closed -3.4%! vs -4.4%!!! vs -2.3% vs closed vs -0.7%; Korean KOSPI +2.9% vs +2.6% vs -2.3% vs -3.6% vs closed vs flat vs +2.7%!!! vs -0.7%; Indian Sensex +2.8% vs closed vs -0.5% vs -1.8% vs -1.8% vs -1.5% vs +1.5% vs -0.5%. US futures were weaker until payrolls report (see market reaction above). Bonds plummeting for a fourth straight session. Currently 10 yr is back above 2% at 2.08% -3/4, after a RECORD low 9/23 of 1.6855%; 30 yr back above 3% at 3.04%% -1-7/8. Long TIP 0.95% -1-3/8.

Gold continues to hold above $1600, now for a sixth day after closing $1653.20 +$10), following 9/23’s low of $1534, lowest since 7/6!), and is now $1656.1 +$2.90. Last Monday’s low was nearly to the 200 day, now $1536.60, now critical support. The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. Can we do it again? Crude rallied yesterday and again overnight safely above $80. Tuesday’s close was lowest since 9/23/10 as was low of $74.95! Overnight, we are up 85 cents to $83,44 first support at $80.

…TB really blew it yesterday…had it in his head that it was Friday all morning until a helpful friend sent a note… kindly, not jabbing…thanks! So what does one write about when one was already in weekend mode? Just the euphoria on the payrolls…sure they were up…sure we got revisions totaling 99k jobs for a NET +202k…that doesn’t even keep pace with new job entrants for one month let alone THREE!. Wake up! Meanwhile the government is in limbo as it may well be until we either plunge into recession or the 2012 presidential elections which don’t look very presidential…where are the leaders?

How about some equal time for Obama? OK, first he invokes the ‘Buffett Rule’ (may there never be a Trader Bill rule to lessen credibility). Like any good politician he expanded it from getting those who are not paying the full rate to ALL making over a million a year…sheer stupidity and not helping his case. Buffett even had to issue a clarification that the tax rates themselves are not the problem but the ‘carried interest’ rule among others.

Then Obama decided to try to take the high road…the buck stops here and all that…but he offered nothing new to hang our collective hats on.

The other day, TB had to go to the post office…to mail tax returns if you must know (ugh!), and saw some people setting up a big poster with NAWAPA on it and a map. Thinking it was a map of Lake Minetonka or something he went over and asked what it was. He was told that when JFK was president he had approved a North American Water and Power Authority but after being assassinated it died. Hmmm…

Then he was told by this strong-willed woman that above all we must get Obama out of office…can’t take another four years, etc. TB trying to be the gentleman he is said he had to go as wife was waiting in the car. THEN she said…oh your wife can’t wait five minutes for something important. Now TB was ticked! He said “I’ve got little use for Sarah Palin but she was correct in saying you can’t just get Obama out but who are you going to put in.” She said we are not for Palin or the  GOP, we are for Lyndon LaRouche…and  began shoving papers in his hand…one with a picture of Obama with a Hitler moustache! TB uttered the ‘f’ word and left…fuming…

Later that afternoon he drove by and they were screaming…this time at two police officers who were telling them to clear out…seems a post office  is federal property. That made TB feel better. Not a typical day of Minnesota nice.

. . .  – – –  . . .    . . .  – – –  . . .

Ok, let’s try this again…have a great weekend!!! (see shorter today after the tirade.)



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