5/3/11…bin who?

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Commodities, Stocks Fall as Dollar Gains; T-Bill Yield Drops to Record Low

*Morgan Stanley Joins Funds Buying Commodities as Goldman Sachs Says ‘Sell’

*Bin Laden Death Adds to Bull’s Clout After Weathering Europe, Japan Crises??

*GM Rebounds to Global No. 1 on China Sales Toyota Can’t Match After Quake

*Commercial Mortgage Bonds Rally as Late Loan balances fall – finally! TB

*Petrobras Holds Off Gasoline Price Rises as Brazil Demand Prompts Imports

*Terror Hunt’s next Big Target Moves to bin Laden’s Elusive Deputy Zawahiri    

Monday’s volume of 935 million shares was the 30th straight below average volume day (1.1B) – and another strange session. For a second day, we had good news albeit Bin Laden’s death was little cause for the rally it was credited with but for a second day the opening rally faltered. Advance/Declines and Breadth were solidly negative – bout 1.5x. Still, there were 532 new 52 week highs versus just 43 new lows,  Dow flat, Transports -0.1%, S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq Composite -0.3%, 100 flat, while the Russell 2000 plunged 1.2%…losing control?   

The Dollar came off Friday’s and Monday’s early low of 72.83, lowest since 7/29/08, and is now 73.20 +.14. The last close above 76 was on March 30th and it has been almost straight down since. Since April 14th the long bond had been in a range of 4.47% to 4.36% but overnight droped to 4.36%, while the 10 year note broke out of the range (3.41% to 3.29%), and is now 3.25%!!! Gold hit a new all-time high of $1577.40 Monday but sold off immediately and is now $1545.60 -$11.50! Crude is off $1.02 to $112.48 after finally taking out the rally high with a $114.14 print Monday before plunging like Gold did.

Global equity markets are weaker: FTSE -0.1%; CAC 40 -0.5%; DAX -0.7%; Nikkei closed; Hang Seng -0.4%; Korean Kospi -1.3%; Indian Sensex the big loser, -2.4%!!! U.S. Futures weaker: DOW -32; SPX -4.10; NDQ -4.

…told you Bin Laden’s demise was a poor excuse for a rally, and like Friday with good, solid economic positives, the early rally fizzled. The surge to record/rally highs in Gold and Crude respectively may have produced a ‘selling climax’ to the commodities rally…indeed, Goldamn is now bearish while Morgan Stanley is the goat…er, buyer? Which side would you rather be on given their respective track records?

We have now had 30 straight below average volume sessions, and despite the ‘pro’s’ who say it doesn’t matter, TB vehemently disagrees and think it smacks of an overbought market (at least in the sense that anyone who wants to be long already IS long), and that generally leads to a sharper than expected selloff…time will tell…always does.

Look folks, unless and until we can have our Congress behave like adults and make serious attempts at budget reform…and that includes reversing the Bush tax cuts as Greenspan and other experts have pleaded, You can’t give 98% of tax cuts to the wealthiest and then saddle the rest with 70% of the budget cuts, poor math and worse politics. Now the teabaggers are finding out what ‘politics as usual’ means and they are not happy campers insuring interesting elections next year…oh boy, oh boy. He who lives by the sword…how does that go?

. . .  – – –  . . .    . . .  – – –  . . .

Wow! Isn’t it great??? The GOP lauding Obama for the killing of Bin Laden. Why, even a gaunt-looking Dick Cheney praised him. House Speaker Boehner too…adding though that it was Dubya who started the hunt – omitting the fact that had he not segued to Iraq we might have gotten him then. It is of course denigrated by the fact that it has taken nearly ten years to get him when we should have had him after Tora Bora, had the strong-talking Bushie’s not let the Taliban steer them away…was that why we went to Iraq? Besides the oil of course…like we attacked Grenada after the Beirut Marine barracks bombing? Small victories.

Have a wonderful day…the sun is finally shining in Minnesota,



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