4/27/11…fastforward to Wednesday

Apologies on missing Tuesday and today’s deadline, due to business commitments. Sorry for the inconvenience. TB

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks in U.S. Climb on Better-than-Estimated Earnings, Durable Goods Data (?)

*U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise for 3rd Month as Equipment is Replenished(weakly)

*Greek, Portuguese Yields Reach Records Amid El-Erian ‘Lost Decade’ Warning

*Portugal Bill Burden Pushes Debt-Rollover Costs to 20% of GDP – fatal error?

*Riskiest Junk bonds on Rebound With Biggest Gains in April…too eager?

*Apple Denies Tracking IPhone Locationis, will Reduce Data-Storage Capacity

*Facebook Drives SecondMarket to Broker $1 Billion With Closely Held Shares (still NO financials until 2012!!!...you gotta believe! TB)

*Panetta Selected by Obama to Head Pentagon as Petraeus Is Chosen for CIA

Key Stories From Tuesday:

*Greek Deficit Tops Forecasts as Merkel Aid Says Debt Must Be Restructured

*China’s ‘Opaque’ Central Bank Raises Rates on Holidays

*Ford First-Quarter Profit Climbes 22% as New Vehicles Garner Higher Prices

*Coca-Cola First-Quarter Profit Gain Trails Estimates on Earthquake Damage

*Apple, Google Questioned by U.S. Lawmakers on Location-Tracking Technology

Bloomberg Quotes of the Day: “Only the shallow know themselves.” – Oscar Wilde – see it isn’t that they are egocentric, they just think the world revolves around them. (from an anonymous quote) TB

“There is a coherent plan in the universe, thought I don’t know what it’s a plan for.” – Fred Hoyle…or is it coherent? TB

Yesterday’s volume of 909 million shares marked the 26th straight below average volume day (1.1B0, while Mondays 697 millon was the LOWEST in that entire period. Thursday’s pre-holiday volume was 813M shares and the lowest of last week, yet the market continues to rally on earnings…note that while bank earnings are improving REVENUES at the big banks are off 13%…begging the question of sustainability! Economist David Gilmore wrote yesterday that taking positions on what the Fed will do is risky and likely to result in less ‘P’ and more ‘L’ for traders…what the hell are we trading off anyway? Q1 earnings? Wonder what Ben Graham would have to say about that! But it does prove once again that on low volume you can do anything, after all it’s up to you, New York, New York…just keep spreadin’ the news! Even if it is faux news.

Since April 14th the long bond has been in a range of 4.47% to 4.39% and the 10 year note from 3.41% to 3.31%, both treading water but at least below 4.50% and 3.50% respectively, inching lower yesterday but that may all change with the big FOMC meeting this week – finally! Meanwhile Gold had seven consecutive higher highs, and the last six session have all been records above $1,500…peak was Monday at $1519.20 before stalling and losing momentum? It is now $1511.10 +$7.50. Also, the manipulated Crude contract is doing the same after a cycle high of  $113.48 – 2 cents above the preview on April 11, currently $112.00 -.21 and at $5.60 in one Florida gas station will put a damper on growth…psychologically if for no other reason…won’t it?

Global equity markets are mixed for a third session: FTSE +0.1%; CAC 40 +0.8%; DAX +0.7%; Nikkei +1.4%!!!; Hang Seng -.05%; Korean Kospi flat; Indian Sensex -0.5%. U.S. market as of 10:20am EDT: DOW +10; Trans -6; Utilities +2, SPX -1; NDQ -1.25…this is like ‘Waiting for Godot’…or the Iceman to come.

As Rush Limbaugh (TB never thought he would be quoting him), used to say: another week of the American people and their budget being held hostage by the U.S. government as both parties play to their constituencies.

Face it we are in gridlock, global political systems in turmoil, a serious lack of jobs creation…do you really care if unemployment is 8.8% or 9.2%? No, not when the real unemployment rate is over 15%! How can we profess to be a consumer based economy and not worry about where the money comes from to pay for the goods we produce…ah, but the weak dollar will make our goods, much of which, for export at least, are produced abroad…but think it out…companies over there will lose business to Americans and from their own people so no country can be an island…least of all Great Britain, whose greatness is about as transparent as the Royal Family and the wedding events this week. At least we don’t have that to deal with although we have had several attempts at ruling aristocracies here…Bush’s, Kennedy’s, etc. That is not healthy in a democracy, or even a democratic republic is it?

How can the leader in the GOP be Donald Trump…because he is a ‘successful’ business man? Tell TB that a measure of success is screwing anyone who ever backed your ventures…leaving yourself rich and them holding the bag. Tell him that if John McCain was not and is not a consensus builder in his own party, that The Donald will be able to drive home to Congress that they must do his bidding? They will not! All of which makes it more obvious to TB that unless a REAL leader appears on the scene…something we haven’t seen in years…and that goes for Obama, who has a gift of words, but no real backbone to put them into action…implies that Obama will be reelected…stop groaning…remember he is the Devil you know…or would you prefer The Donald? Bachmann? Palin?…can’t even think of one person to toss out there for the Dems.

No wonder 75% of Americans polled are disgusted with Congress…mandate? Gimme a break!

Then there is the financial sector which despite the biggest financial collapse in history, followed by the biggest bailout, refuse to make loans…and what they do make are for fees and mortgage servicing then summarily dumped on Fannie or Freddie. No wonder the big banks revenues are down 13% but earnings are up…don’t forget the reduction in loan loss reserves which is a big boost!

A travesty in the bailout was not pushing the banks to make small business loans…especially after the government (at big bank prodding?) pulled the plug on CIT Financial…a factor and MAJOR lender to small business…they didn’t have to put up a DIME…just extend the guarantee on their commercial paper as they did for the big banks and GE. Wonder why the recovery is going so slow or why confidence isn’t improving?

A big deal was made about Durable Goods improving…for a third straight month. First, for good reason they are referred to as ‘Doubtful Goods Orders,’ and second they are still down 15.9% from a year ago! Whoopie!

So as TB said a couple of weeks ago: the market will go up! – until it doesn’t. You decide.

. . .  – – –  . . .    . . .  – – –  . . .

Hope your Passovers and Easter’s were good ones. For the markets of course, Friday was a ‘good one’ since they were closed!

TB received the following suggestion that is being circulated lately from two readers…without attribution. So despite some of the ideas having been propped here recently, he offers it for your thought:

LET’S TAKE CHARGE AND GET SOME CONTOL BACK TO CITIZENS:

The 26th amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds) took only 3
months & 8 days to be  ratified! Why?  Simple!  The people  demanded it.  That
was in 1971…before computers, before e-mail, before cell phones, etc.Of  the 27 amendments to the Constitution, seven (7) took 1 year or less to
become the law of the  land…all because of public  pressure.

I’m asking each addressee to forward this email to a minimum of twenty people on
their address list;  in  turn ask each of those to do  likewise.

In three days, most people in The United States of America will have the
message.  This is one  idea that really should be passed  around.

Congressional Reform Act of  2011
1.  Term  Limits.
12 years only, one of the possible options  below..
A. Two Six-year Senate terms
B. Six Two-year House terms
C. One Six-year Senate term and three Two-Year House  terms

2.   No Tenure / No  Pension.
A  Congressman collects a salary while in office and  receives no pay when
they are out of  office.

3.   Congress (past, present & future) participates  in Social  Security.
All  funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to  the Social Security
system immediately.  All  future funds flow into the Social Security system,
and Congress participates with the American  people.

4. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan,  just as all Americans do.

5. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise.  Congressional pay will
rise by the  lower of CPI or  3%.

6. Congress loses their current health care system and participates in the same
health care system as the  American  people.

7. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people.

8. All contracts with past and present Congressmen are void effective 1/1/12.
The  American people did not make this contract with  Congressmen.
Congressmen made all these contracts for themselves.   Serving  in Congress is
an honor, not a career.  The  Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators,
so  ours should serve their term(s), then go home and  back to work.

If each person contacts a minimum of twenty people then  it will only take three
days for most people (in the  U.S. ) to receive the message.  Maybe it is  time.

THIS IS HOW YOU FIX CONGRESS!!!!! If  you agree with the above, pass it on.   If
not, just  delete

TB took the liberty of reducing the size…why is it whenever someone forwards something they think you are blind as a bat? Emphasis???

Have a wonderful week…don’t let the Fed ruin it for you!

TB

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