1/07/11…a job is…

…a many splendored thing…and rare to find these days! Today is payrolls Friday for the month of December and while weekly jobless claims rose last week back above the 400k mark to 409k, that data is not included in the monthly data…just sets a bad tone for the January data.

The data was just released and it is not pretty…where are the jobs. Despite this friends in Southern California and New York report robust business at toney restaurants…reminiscent of The Grasshopper and the Ants, no?

TB doesn’t get it and wonders if all those smart MBA’s do? Jobs, jobs, jobs, are the key to growth unless we outsource so we get stronger corporate earnings and they proceed with their stock buybacks. But note that on the merger of Centel and Qwest they announced yesterday they will focus on stock buybacks rather than increasing the dividend and BOTH stocks declined…to hell with giving them what they want…but then it is the hedge fund managers who want to see more buybacks, short-term oriented as they are. So the house of mirrors continues to amaze.

Yesterday’s stock market action included an inside day on the Dow (lower high and higher low than the previous), and at varying times some of the major indices were up while others were down, but at the end of the day only the Nasdaq was up (0.2%) while the Dow and S&P 500 were off 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 small cap was off 0.5%. Advance/declines and breadth were both negative on all exchanges by 1.5x or more, especially the AMEX at -2:1. This did not stop however the parade of new 52 week highs from growing by 408!…with just 19 new lows. With the average p/e on the S&P 500 at 16 times…is this a good time to buy??? You decide, but you better look at the chart TB mentioned the last two days before you do or you will be very disappointed with your long-term performance…and remember the case is even stronger for a secular bear market continuation with the employment report today…don’t be afraid…but don’t be deceived. In the end, however, it is you that must decide.

. . . - - - . . .    . . . - - - . . . (S.O.S.)

Ah the changing of the guard at the White House! Obama showed wisdom in replacing his outgoing Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, with someone not affiliated with Goldman Sachs…no sir, he doesn’t deal with crooks (unlike Jim Cramer who remains proud as a new parent of Goldamn Sachs, he even thought Lloyd Blankfein would be a fine choice for any position in government). No, he appointed William Daley…wait isn’t that the son of the famous Chicago Mayor and brother of another? Wow, that is cleaning things up! But wait, it gets better. Where did Daley work? JPMorganChase!!! Are they replacing Goldamn in the revolving door?  Too big to fail just got bigger. Perhaps the key should have been when recently Obama invited big business to the White House to discuss which regulations they thought should be eliminated. Lemme see…meat packers want less FDA inspections, drug companies likewise…especially Glaxo Smith-Kline who knowingly produced contaminated drugs and mixed different drugs in the same packages but proceeded to sell them anyway, the financial services for no regulation of the big five – after all it is a waste of time as they are too big to fail and growing bigger every day. Wait…TB thought Obama was a Democrat…has he changed parties like some Congressmen have done of late? Didn’t too big to fail begin with Ronald Reagan’s bailout of Continental Illinois? Is this what becoming more centrist is all about? You decide…TB is sick of the games where the rich get richer at the expense of the  rest of the nation! Ye gods, man!

Have a great weekend…and if you can keep your head while all those about you are losing theirs…you are a better man (woman) than they are my friend! (with apologies to Rudyard Kipling's ‘If’.)


Trader Bill thinks it is clear to anyone reading these missives that they are merely commentaries...as he sees it...and do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone other than his own. Information is gathered from sources he has found reliable, but no guarantees of accuracy are implied. These are merely observations of events in the marketplace offering in an attempt to offer a non-mainstream viewpoint. Copyright TBD Capital LLC, January 7, 2011.



  1. Yarnman said

    TB- Wukipedia reports that, according to Bloomberg News, Gene Sperling earned $887,727 from Goldman Sachs in 2008 and $158,000 for speeches mostly to financial companies. So Goldamn is still hangin’ in there! Sounds to me that there’s been a scientific breakthrough where Wall Street has cloned a “gene.”–Yarnman

    • traderbill said

      Meanwhile good old Charlie Rangel gets censured for things we would have gone to jail for. Even in the UK! MP David Chaytor was sentenced to 18 months for making false expense claims, and there are more to follow. No jail for good ole boy Charlie, heck even Martha Stewart fared worse….what a world we live in. Meanwhile the crooks at Goldamn and elsewhere sit counting their money…no, they don’t have time for that as they are raking in more. As Bunker Hunt said, you don’t have time to count it.

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